The production and import scenarios of the United States, China and India are shown in Figure 1.4a, b and c. The United States imports 68% of its crude oil requirement (Figure 1.4a), whereas India imports 79% of its crude oil requirement from other countries, as shown in Figure 1.4c. Trade movements of crude oil from different countries are shown in Table 1.2. Details of India’s crude oil production and import from other countries are shown in Figure 1.5.
• Europe’s energy deficit remains roughly at today’s levels for oil and coal but increases by 65% for natural gas (Figure 1.6). This is matched by gas production growth in the former Soviet Union (FSU) [4].
• Among energy-importing regions, North America is an exception, with growth in biofuel supplies and unconventional oil and gas turning today’s energy deficit (mainly oil) into a small surplus by 2030.
• In aggregate, today’s energy importers will need to import 40% more in 2030 than they do today, with deficits in Europe and Asia Pacific met by supply growth in the Middle East, the FSU, Africa and South and Central America.
• China’s energy deficit increases by 0.8 Btoe (billion tonnes of oil equivalent, spread across all fuels) while India’s import require- ment grows by 0.4 Btoe (mainly oil and coal). The rest of Asia Pacific remains a big oil importer at similar levels to today.
• Asian energy requirements are partially met by increased Middle East and African production, but the rebalancing of global energy trade as a result of the improved net position in the Americas is also a key factor [4].
• Import dependency, measured as the share of demand met by net imports, increases for most major energy importers except the United States (Figure 1.7).
TABLE 1.1 Production of Crude Oil, Shale Oil, Oil Sands and NGLs (Excludes Liquid Fuels from Other Sources Such as Biomass and Coal Derivatives) Production (Million Tonnes)20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 United States352.6349.2346.8338.4329.2313.3310.2309.8304.9328.6339.1 Canada126.9126.1135.0142.6147.6144.9153.4158.3156.8156.1162.8 Mexico171.2176.6178.4188.8190.7187.1183.1172.7157.7147.5146.3 Argentina40.441.540.940.237.836.235.834.934.133.832.5 Brazil63.266.374.477.076.584.689.290.493.9100.4105.7 Colombia35.331.029.727.927.327.327.527.630.534.139.9 Ecuador20.921.220.421.727.327.627.726.526.225.225.2 Peru4.94.84.84.54.45.05.15.15.36.46.9 Trinidad and Tobago6.86.57.57.97.38.38.37.26.96.86.5 Venezuela167.3161.6148.8131.4150.0151.0144.2133.9131.5124.8126.6 Other South and Central America6.66.97.87.87.37.27.07.17.06.76.6 Azerbaijan14.115.015.415.515.622.432.542.844.750.650.9 Denmark17.717.018.117.919.118.416.715.214.012.912.2 Italy4.64.15.55.65.56.15.85.95.24.65.1 Kazakhstan35.340.148.252.460.662.666.168.472.078.281.6 Norway160.2162.0157.3153.0149.9138.2128.7118.6114.2108.898.6 Romania6.36.26.15.95.75.45.04.74.74.54.3 Russian Federation323.3348.1379.6421.4458.8470.0480.5491.3488.5494.2505.1 Turkmenistan7.28.09.010.09.69.59.29.810.310.410.7 United Kingdom126.2116.7115.9106.195.484.776.676.871.768.263.0 Uzbekistan7.57.27.27.16.65.45.44.94.84.53.7 Other Europe and Eurasia22.422.223.624.023.522.021.721.620.619.618.2 Iran191.3191.4180.9203.7207.8206.3208.2209.7209.9201.5203.2
Iraq128.8123.9104.066.1100.090.098.1105.2119.5119.8120.4 Kuwait109.1105.898.2114.8122.3129.3132.7129.9137.2121.7122.5 Oman46.446.143.439.638.137.435.734.535.938.741.0 Qatar36.135.735.240.846.047.350.953.660.857.965.7 Saudi Arabia456.3440.6425.3485.1506.0526.8514.3494.2515.3464.7467.8 Syria27.328.927.226.224.722.421.620.619.818.619.1 United Arab Emirates122.1118.0110.2124.5131.7137.3145.5140.7142.9126.3130.8 Yemen21.321.521.521.119.919.617.916.314.413.512.5 Other Middle East2.22.22.22.22.21.61.41.61.51.71.7 Algeria66.865.870.979.083.686.486.286.585.677.977.7 Angola36.936.644.642.854.569.069.682.592.287.490.7 Chad———1.28.89.18.07.56.76.26.4 Brazzaville13.112.112.311.211.612.614.311.712.413.915.1 Egypt38.837.337.036.835.433.933.734.134.635.335.0 Equatorial Guinea4.58.811.413.217.417.716.917.317.215.213.6 Gabon16.415.014.712.011.811.711.711.511.811.512.2 Libya69.567.164.669.876.581.984.985.085.377.177.5 Nigeria105.4110.8 102.3 109.3119.0122.1117.8112.1 103.099.1115.2 Sudan8.610.711.913.114.915.016.323.123.723.623.9 Tunisia3.73.43.53.23.43.43.34.64.24.03.8 Other Africa7.26.66.76.88.17.77.68.38.17.77.1 Australia35.331.831.526.624.824.523.223.523.721.923.8 Brunei9.49.910.210.510.310.110.89.58.58.28.4 China162.6164.8166.9169.6174.1181.4184.8186.3190.4189.5203.0 India34.234.135.235.436.334.635.836.136.135.438.9 Indonesia71.567.963.057.355.253.148.947.549.047.947.8 Malaysia33.732.934.535.636.534.433.534.234.633.132.1 Thailand7.07.58.29.69.110.811812.513.313.713.8 Vietnam16.217.117.317.720.819.417.816.415.416.818.0 Other Asia Pacific9.49.19.09.110.512.513.213.914.714.313.6 Total world3611.83601.63584.23701.13877.03906.63916.23904.33933.73831.03913.7
600
500
400
300
200
100
00 2 4 6
Year (from 2000)
United States Canada Mexico Venezuela Norway
Russian Federation United Kingdom Iran
Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia China India
Oil production (million tonnes)
8 10 12
FIGURE 1.3
Comparison of production of crude oil from different countries.
United States crude oil
(a) (b)
(c)
Production 32%
Production 21%
Production 52%
Import 48%
Import 68%
Import 79%
China crude oil
India crude oil
FIGURE 1.4
Production and import scenarios of crude oil in the (a) USA, (b) China and (c) India. (Adapted from IEA World Energy Outlook, www.iea.org, 2009; www.petroleum.nic.)
TABLE 1.2 Trade Movements of Crude Oil Worldwide Year2000200120022003200420052006200720082009 2010 Imports (Thousand Barrels Daily) United States 11,092 11,618 11,357 12,254 12,898 13,525 13,612 13,632 12,872 11,453 11,689 Europe 11,070 11,531 11,895 11,993 12,538 13,261 13,461 13,953 13,751 12,486 12,094 Japan 5329 5202 5070 5314 5203 5225 5201 5032 4925 4263 4567 Rest of the world 15,880 16,436 16,291 17,191 18,651 19,172 20,287 22,937 23,078 24,132 25,160 Total world 43,371 44,787 44,613 46,752 49,290 51,182 52,561 55,554 54,626 52,333 53,510 Exports (Thousand Barrels Daily) United States 890 910 904 921 991 1129 1317 1439 1967 1947 2154 Canada 1703 1804 1959 2096 2148 2201 2330 2457 2498 2518 2599 Mexico 1814 1882 1966 2115 2070 2065 2102 1975 1609 1449 1539 South and Central America 3079 3143 2965 2942 3233 3528 3681 3570 3616 3748 3568 Europe 1967 1947 2234 2066 1993 2149 2173 2273 2023 2034 1888 Former Soviet Union 4273 4679 5370 6003 6440 7076 7155 8334 8184 7972 8544 Middle East 18,944 19,098 18,062 18,943 19,630 19,821 20,204 19,680 20,128 18,409 18,883 North Africa 2732 2724 2620 2715 2917 3070 3225 3336 3260 2938 2871 West Africa 3293 3182 3134 3612 4048 4358 4704 4830 4587 4364 4601 Asia Pacific 3736 3914 3848 3978 4189 4243 4312 6004 5392 5631 6226 Rest of the world 940 1506 1551 1361 1631 1542 1359 1656 1363 1323 637 Total world 43,371 44,789 44,613 46,752 49,290 51,182 52,561 55,554 54,626 52,333 53,510 Source:Adapted from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, http://www.bp.com/statistical review, June 2011.
• The import share of oil demand and the volume of oil imports in the United States will fall below the 1990s levels, largely due to the ris- ing production of domestic shale oil and ethanol, displacing crude imports. The United States also becomes a net exporter of natural gas.
• In China, imports of oil and natural gas rise sharply as the growth in demand outpaces domestic supply. Oil continues to dominate
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
Year 0
500 1000 1500
Production Consumption
Thousand barrels per day
2000 2500 3000 3500
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
FIGURE 1.5
India’s crude oil production and import from other countries. (Adapted from www.petroleum.nic.)
Key:
Billion toe 1 Gas 0 –1
OilCoal 1990 Net importers Net exporters
2010
South and Central America Africa
Other Asia Pacific India
China Middle East
Europe North America
FSU
2030
FIGURE 1.6
Net imports and exports of gas, oil and coal—world view. (Adapted from BP Energy Outlook 2030, London, January 2012.)
China’s energy imports, although gas imports increase by a factor of 16. China also becomes a major importer of coal.
• India will increasingly have to rely on imports of all three—oil, coal and natural gas—to supply its growing energy needs.
• European net imports (and imports as a share of consumption) rise significantly due to the declining domestic oil and gas produc- tion and rising gas consumption. Virtually all of the growth in net imports is from natural gas [4].