ABSTRACT This study focuses on analyzing how two types of modality manifested in some commentaries of Mr Rogoff on the Global financial crisis 2008-2009 To fulfill these goals, the study first presents the major theory on discourse and modality: notions of discourse and modality, types of modality and how modality is expressed The main part of the study concentrates on analyzing how modality manifested in separate parts of the commentary texts and in types of modality: epistemic and deontic modality The conclusion is the review of the study in general and gives the application to English teaching and learning and some suggested exercises for practice The author hopes to gain the concerns from the readers i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The thesis could not be completed without the great support from my lecturers, my family and my friends First, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, M.A Le Thach Anh for his readiness at all time to give me precious advice, valuable materials and enormous corrections without which the thesis would have never been completed I am also grateful to all my lectures from Department of Foreign Language, Vinh University for their valuable lectures, which help me much in orienting the topic I wish to thank my loved family and good friends who love, care, support and encourage me much during the process of the thesis Finally, I am all too aware that despite all the advice and assistance, I feel that the thesis is far from perfect; it is therefore, my sole responsibilities for any inadequacies that it may be considered to have Vinh, May 15th 2010 Tran Thi Thu Hue ii TABLE OF CONTENT Pa ge ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS .iii LIST OF TABLES AND ABBREVIATIONS vi PART A: INTRODUCTION 1 Rationale .1 Aims of the Study .2 Scope of the Study Methods of the Study Design of the Study PART B: DEVELOPMENT CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 1.1 Discourse and Discourse Analysis 1.1.1 Definition of Discourse 1.1.2 Discourse and Text 1.1.3 Spoken and Written Discourse 1.1.4 Discourse Analysis 1.2 Discourse – Context 1.2.1 Definition of Context 1.2.2 Context vs Co-text 10 1.3 Concept of Modality .11 1.3.1 Definition of Modality in Discourse 11 1.3.2 Modal Meanings .12 iii 1.3.3 Types of Modality 13 1.3.3.1 Epistemic Modality 14 1.3.3.2 Deontic Modality 17 1.3.4 How Modality is realized .18 1.3.4.1 By Modal Auxiliary Verbs .18 1.3.4.2 By Lexical Words Carrying Modal Meanings .20 1.3.4.3 Other means: Tenses, Mood and Particles .21 CHAPTER 2: AN ANALYSIS OF MODALITY IN SOME COMMENTARIES ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008 - 2009 23 2.1 General Definition of Commentary in English 23 2.2 General Information of Analyzed Data 23 2.3 Modality in Parts of Commentary Texts .23 2.3.1 Title .23 2.3.2 Introduction Part .24 2.3.3 Body Part 25 2.3.4 Conclusion Part 26 2.3.5 Concluding Remarks .26 2.4 Modality Manifested in Some Commentaries on Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 as Seen in Types 27 2.4.1 Deontic Modality 27 2.4.1.1 Marked by Lexical Words Carrying Modal Meanings 27 2.4.1.2 Marked by Modal Auxiliary Verbs 28 2.4.2 Epistemic Modality 30 2.4.2.1 Marked by Modal Auxiliary Verbs 30 2.4.2.2 Marked by Lexical Words Carrying Modal Meanings 31 2.5 General Remarks 37 iv CHAPTER 3: SOME APPLICATIONS OF MODALITY IN ENGLISH TEACHING AND LEARNING .39 3.1 Some Suggestions for the Learners 40 3.2 Some Suggestions for the Teachers 40 3.3 Applications of Modality in Teaching Speaking Skill 40 3.4 Applications of Modality in Teaching Writing Skill 42 3.5 Suggested Exercises for Practice 42 PART C: CONCLUSION 46 Review of Major Findings 46 Suggestions for Further Works 47 REFERENCES APPENDIX v LIST OF TABLES P age Table 1.1: Spoken and written language7 Table 1.2: Types of context 10 Table 1.3: Major meanings expressed by modal auxiliaries 19 Table 2.1: General statistics of the selected data 23 Table 2.2: Statistics of bodies of selected commentary texts 26 Table 2.3: Modality in parts of selected commentary texts 27 Table 2.4: Epitomical modal auxiliary verbs .31 Table 2.5: The rate of occurrence of four items expressing epistemic meanings 31 Table 2.6: Survey results in two types of modality .38 ABBREVIATIONS e.g : for example etc : et cetra esp : especially i.e : that is to say ibid : in the same reference/ in the same place S : speaker/ sender vs : versus vi PART A: INTRODUCTION Rationale It is obvious that in our daily life, people always have needs of communication However, many people fail to interpret speaker’s messages Nowadays, the Internet has become more and more popular as a means of communication Many people search webs to find information, others give information and news Many of them even give their comments on the things in life, which they interest Online commentary in some websites or forums are said to be a useful and typical demonstration of modality It is where the authors often express their opinion, stances and attitude toward the mentioned event As we can see, global economy has been in a badly difficult period This is the consequence of global financial crisis which initial cause is American financial crisis at the beginning of 2008 Not only economists and leaders investigate the issue but also we who are suffering from its negative effects Yet there are many famous professors and prestige economists who are working hard to solve the issue They investigate and give their point of view, opinions, ideas toward what is going on with the global economy via their research; commentaries which are update each hour on internet- a modern and useful media We may read those commentaries to understand more what happens around the global economy in general and our country's economy in particular or we may be interested in linguistically aspect of those commentaries as a means of learning and studying English In linguistic view, the author is interested in the way economists; professors express their attitude, opinions, feeling toward the issue is modality For all the reasons above, we have decided to choose “An Analysis of Modality in Some Commentaries on Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009” to be the theme of the thesis Aims of the Study The study is carried out with the following purposes: - To emphasize the important roles of modality in getting a successful communication - To analyze and give descriptions of modality used in English commentaries - To suggest some practical applications of modality in teaching and learning English Scope of the Study Modality is all-pervasive in spoken and written languages; however our research deals with modality manifested in written language only There are two main types of modality: epistemic modality and deontic modality Each type of modality is expressed in all means of communication: word form like noun, verb, adjective, and adverb, a large number of modal auxiliaries; by tenses, mood, and particles also However, with the limit of the thesis, we only work with word forms and 10 modal auxiliary verbs; others are out of the scope of the thesis The data analyzed in this thesis belongs to Mr Kenneth Rogoff Mr Rogoff served as Economic counselor and director, research department of the International Monetary Fund from August 2001 to September 2003 He had his PhD in economics from the Massachetts Institude of Technology, a professor in the Department of Economic at Harvard University Mr Rogoff has published extensively on policy issues in international finance, including exchange rates, international debt issues and international monetary policy In 10 commentaries analyzed in the thesis, he discusses the later period of the crisis that is its effects and how different economic leaders deal with this tragedy With each commentary, he uses a certain types of modality and its markers All these commentaries are taken from the website: http: // www.poject syndicate- org/commentary/shiller67 Methods of the Study The thesis is finished based on the following methods: -The data - commentaries on global financial crisis 2008-2009- are collected - Analysis and synthesis of selected data Design of the Study There are three main parts in the thesis: Part A: Introduction In this part, the rationale, aims, scope, methods and design of the study are introduced Part B: Development This part consists of three chapters: Chapter 1: Theoretical Background This part will review theoretical background of the study including theory of discourse analysis and modality Chapter 2: An Analysis of Modality in Some Commentaries on Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 This is the focus of the study This part shows how modality is manifested in 10 commentaries made by the economist Kenneth Rogoff The statistics of the data analyzed are also stated Chapter 3: Some Applications of Modality in English Teaching and Learning Some applications for English teaching and learning are the focus of this chapter Part C: Conclusion In this part, major findings of the study are summarized and some suggestions for further study are also presented Of course, US behemoths such as Citigroup, Bank of America, and JP Morgan will also be affected But the universal banking model is far less central to the US financial system than it is in Europe and parts of Asia and Latin America Aside from its implications for different national systems, the future shape of banking is critical to the broader financial system, including venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds The Geithner proposal aims to rein in all of them to some degree Fear of crises is understandable, yet without these new, creative approaches to financing, Silicon Valley might never have been born Where does the balance between risk and creativity lie? Although much of the G-20 debate has concerned issues such as global fiscal stimulus, the real high-stakes poker involves choosing a new philosophy for the international financial system and its regulation If our leaders cannot find a new approach, there is every chance that financial globalization will shift quickly into reverse, making it all the more difficult to escape the current morass The Limits of Dubai (2009-12-01) Global investors are in a giant huff over Dubai’s decision to allow its flagship private company Dubai World to seek a six-month standstill (implying at least partial default) on payments on some $26 billion in debt What exactly did investors expect when they purchased bonds in companies with names like “Limitless World,” one of Dubai World’s bankrupt real-estate subsidiaries? Talk about a bubble mentality The idea, I guess, was that the emirate’s government would stand behind every loan, no matter how risky And if the oil-poor Dubai government didn’t have the money, then somehow its oil-rich sister state Abu Dhabi would cough up the cash An absurd expectation, one might think But it is hardly more improbable than many of the other massive bailouts we have seen around the world in the wake of the recent financial crisis What really upset investors, of course, was the realization that, yes, some day untenable debt guarantees will have to be withdrawn Eventually, an over-leveraged world is going to have to find a way to cut debt burdens down to size, and it won’t all be pretty There are those that revel in what they see as a come-uppance for brash Dubai’s outsized ambitions I, for one, not share this view Yes, Dubai, with its man-made islands, hotels simulating Venice, and roof-top tennis courts, is a real-world castle in the sand Yet, Dubai has also shown the rest of the Middle East what entrepreneurial spirit can accomplish Its airport has become a global hub of such significance that German regulators recently had to force Emirates Airlines to raise its rates to Frankfurt, lest national champion Lufthansa lose too much business And, with its relatively open goods and capital markets, Dubai has become a trading hub not only for the entire Middle East, but also for parts of Africa and Asia On the eve of the financial crisis, other Gulf states had started to look to Dubai for insight into how they might diversify their economies and continue to thrive when the oil wells run dry Yes, Dubai is certainly an autocratic state where finances are tightly and secretively controlled Indeed, lack of detailed information on the Emirates’ finances was a central reason why the Dubai World default came as such a shock But, in many ways, Dubai’s rulers have been remarkably tolerant of free expression A year ago, I sat through an evening of presentations at the University of Dubai by local artists One artist, an Emirati photographer, presented a visual time line of the construction of one of the stations of Dubai’s new metro system This local artist has lived through the stunning transformation of the city-state over the past 13 years, which has been driven by the kind of building boom that one associates with the fastest growing Chinese cities, not the Middle East Rather than simply praising the government’s new constructions, the artist emphasized how jarring the change was to long-time citizens How does one relate to the inanimate objects rising out of the barren yet majestic desert sands? Another artist presented a vision of how outside lighting could be used to transform minarets, and help them to stand out in the blur of modern buildings that characterizes the contemporary Middle Eastern city His visions were magnificent, and apparently somewhat radical One had to be impressed that such ideas could be expressed openly Anyone familiar with Dubai understands that these are but small examples of a much broader embrace of creativity that has allowed the country to court elite foreign professionals in finance and other industries Much as in the United States, elite foreigners have played a key role in developing Dubai’s various service industries Of course, other countries in the Gulf also have some stunning accomplishments to their credit Saudi Arabia’s national oil company has achieved homegrown expertise in oil drilling that is widely admired in the West Qatar has had success in media with Al Jazzera , while Abu Dhabi has helped sponsor remarkable advances in artificial intelligence though its support of computer chess But Dubai, with very little black gold of its own, has done more with less than any other state in the region Unfortunately, Dubai ultimately proved subject to the laws of financial gravity This time was not different Massive speculation and borrowing led to excessive debt burdens and ultimately, to default Is this the end of the road for Dubai’s epic growth? I doubt it Countries throughout the world and throughout history have defaulted on their debts and lived to talk about it, even prosper There is no way around the need for Dubai to restructure and prune its excesses before it can resume a more sustainable growth trajectory, though achieving this will take time Will there be contagion to vulnerable countries in Europe and elsewhere? Not just yet While the Dubai case is not different, it is special, so the effect on investor confidence should remain contained for now But investors are learning the hard way that no country’s possibilities and resources are limitless Inflation is Now the Lesser Evil (2008-12-02) It is time for the world’s major central banks to acknowledge that a sudden burst of moderate inflation would be extremely helpful in unwinding today’s epic debt morass Yes, inflation is an unfair way of effectively writing down all non-indexed debts in the economy Price inflation forces creditors to accept repayment in debased currency Yes, in principle, there should be a way to fix the ills of the financial system without resort to inflation Unfortunately, the closer one examines the alternatives, including capital injections for banks and direct help for home mortgage holders, the clearer it becomes that inflation would be a help, not a hindrance Modern finance has succeeded in creating a default dynamic of such stupefying complexity that it defies standard approaches to debt workouts Securitization, structured finance, and other innovations have so interwoven the financial system’s various players that it is essentially impossible to restructure one financial institution at a time System-wide solutions are needed Moderate inflation in the short run – say, 6% for two years – would not clear the books But it would significantly ameliorate the problems, making other steps less costly and more effective True, once the inflation genie is let out of the bottle, it could take several years to put it back in No one wants to relive the anti-inflation fights of the 1980’s and 1990’s But right now, the global economy is teetering on the precipice of disaster We already have a full-blown global recession Unless governments get ahead of the problem, we risk a severe worldwide downturn unlike anything we have seen since the 1930’s The necessary policy actions involve aggressive macroeconomic stimulus Fiscal policy should ideally focus on tax cuts and infrastructure spending Central banks are already cutting interest rates left and right Policy interest rates around the world are likely to head toward zero; the United States and Japan are already there The United Kingdom and the euro zone will eventually decide to go most of the way Steps must also be taken to recapitalize and re-regulate the financial system Huge risks will remain as long as the financial system remains on government respirators, as is effectively the case in the US, UK, the euro zone, and many other countries today Most of the world’s largest banks are essentially insolvent, and depend on continuing government aid and loans to keep them afloat Many banks have already acknowledged their open-ended losses in residential mortgages As the recession deepens, however, bank balance sheets will be hammered further by a wave of defaults in commercial real estate, credit cards, private equity, and hedge funds As governments try to avoid outright nationalization of banks, they will find themselves being forced to carry out second and third recapitalizations Even the extravagant bailout of financial giant Citigroup, in which the US government has poured in $45 billion of capital and backstopped losses on over $300 billion in bad loans, may ultimately prove inadequate When one looks across the landscape of remaining problems, including the multitrillion-dollar credit default swap market, it is clear that the hole in the financial system is too big to be filled entirely by taxpayer dollars Certainly, a key part of the solution is to allow more banks to fail, ensuring that depositors are paid off in full, but not necessarily debt holders But this route is going to be costly and painful That brings us back to the inflation option In addition to tempering debt problems, a short burst of moderate inflation would reduce the real (inflationadjusted) value of residential real estate, making it easier for that market to stabilize Absent significant inflation, nominal house prices probably need to fall another 15% in the US, and more in Spain, the UK, and many other countries If inflation rises, nominal house prices don’t need to fall as much Of course, given the ongoing recession, it may not be so easy for central banks to achieve any inflation at all right now Indeed, it seems like avoiding sustained deflation , or falling prices, is all they can manage Fortunately, creating inflation is not rocket science All central banks need to is to keep printing money to buy up government debt The main risk is that inflation could overshoot, landing at 20 or 30% instead of 5-6% Indeed, fear of overshooting paralyzed the Bank of Japan for a decade But this problem is easily negotiated With good communication policy, inflation expectations can be contained, and inflation can be brought down as quickly as necessary It will take every tool in the box to fix today’s once-in-a-century financial crisis Fear of inflation, when viewed in the context of a possible global depression, is like worrying about getting the measles when one is in danger of getting the plague Do Central Banks Have an Exit Strategy? (2008-09-02) A year into the global financial crisis, several key central banks remain extraordinarily exposed to their countries’ shaky private financial sectors So far, the strategy of maintaining banking systems on feeding tubes of taxpayerguaranteed short-term credit has made sense But eventually central banks must pull the plug Otherwise they will end up in intensive care themselves as credit losses overwhelm their balance sheets The idea that the world’s largest economies are merely facing a short-term panic looks increasingly strained Instead, it is becoming apparent that, after a period of epic profits and growth, the financial industry now needs to undergo a period of consolidation and pruning Weak banks must be allowed to fail or merge (with ordinary depositors being paid off by government insurance funds), so that strong banks can emerge with renewed vigor If this is the right diagnosis of the “financial crisis,” then efforts to block a healthy and normal dynamic will ultimately only prolong and exacerbate the problem Not allowing the necessary consolidation is weakening credit markets, not strengthening them The United States Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are particularly exposed Collectively, they have extended hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term loans to both traditional banks and complex, unregulated “investment banks.” Many other central banks are nervously watching the situation, well aware that they may soon find themselves in the same position as the global economy continues to soften and default rates on all manner of debt continue to rise If central banks are faced with a massive hit to their balance sheets, it will not necessarily be the end of the world It has happened before – for example, during the 1990’s financial crises But history suggests that fixing a central bank’s balance sheet is never pleasant Faced with credit losses, a central bank can either dig its way out through inflation or await recapitalization by taxpayers Both solutions are extremely traumatic Raging inflation causes all kinds of distortions and inefficiencies (And don’t think central banks have ruled out the inflation tax In fact, inflation has spiked during the past year, conveniently facilitating a necessary correction in the real price of houses.) Taxpayer bailouts, on the other hand, are seldom smooth and inevitably compromise central bank independence There is also a fairness issue The financial sector has produced extraordinary profits, particularly in the Anglophone countries And, while calculating the size of the financial sector is extremely difficult due to its opaqueness and complexity, official US statistics indicate that financial firms accounted for roughly one-third of American corporate profits in 2006 Multi-million dollar bonuses on Wall Street and in the City of London have become routine, and financial firms have dominated donor lists for all the major political candidates in the 2008 US presidential election Why, then, should ordinary taxpayers foot the bill to bail out the financial industry? Why not the auto and steel industries, or any of the other industries that have suffered downturns in recent years? This argument is all the more forceful if central banks turn to the “inflation tax,” which falls disproportionately on the poor, who have less means to protect themselves from price increases that undermine the value of their savings British economist Willem Buiter has bluntly accused central banks and treasury officials of “regulatory capture” by the financial sector, particularly in the US This is a strong charge, especially given the huge uncertainties that central banks and treasury officials have been facing But if officials fail to adjust as the crisis unfolds, then Buiter’s charge may seem less extreme So how central banks dig their way out of this deep hole? The key is to sharpen the distinction between financial firms whose distress is truly panic driven (and therefore temporary), and problems that are more fundamental After a period of massive expansion during which the financial services sector nearly doubled in size, some retrenchment is natural and normal The subprime mortgage loan problem triggered a drop in some financial institutions’ key lines of business, particularly their opaque but extremely profitable derivatives businesses Some shrinkage of the industry is inevitable Central banks have to start fostering consolidation, rather than indiscriminately extending credit In principle, the financial industry can become smaller by having each institution contract proportionately, say, by 15% But this is not the typical pattern in any industry If sovereign wealth funds want to enter and keep capital-starved firms afloat in hopes of a big rebound, they should be allowed to so But they should realize that large foreign shareholders in financial firms may be far less effective than locals in coaxing central banks to extend massive, no-strings-attached credit lines It is time to take stock of the crisis and recognize that the financial industry is undergoing fundamental shifts, and is not simply the victim of speculative panic against housing loans Certainly better regulation is part of the answer over the longer run, but it is no panacea Today’s financial firm equity and bond holders must bear the main cost, or there is little hope they will behave more responsibly in the future Is China Really Immune to the Crisis? (2009-02-04) Addressing the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao explained his government’s plans to counter the global economic meltdown with public spending and loans He all but guaranteed that China’s annual growth would remain above 8% in 2009 Wen’s words were like warm milk to the recession-numbed audience of global political and business leaders But does the Chinese government really have the tools needed to keep its economy so resilient? Perhaps, but it is far from obvious America’s deepening recession is slamming China’s export sector, just as it has everywhere else in Asia The immediate problem is a credit crunch not so much in China as in the United States and Europe, where many small and medium-size importers cannot get the trade credits they need to buy inventory from abroad As a result, some once-booming Chinese coastal areas now look like ghost towns, as tens of thousands of laid-off workers have packed their bags and returned to the countryside Similarly, in Beijing’s Korean section, perhaps half of the 200,000-300,000 inhabitants – mainly workers (and their families) who are paid by Korean companies that produce goods in China for export – reportedly have gone home With roughly $2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, the Chinese have deep pockets to fund massive increases in government spending, and to help backstop bank loans Many leading Chinese researchers are convinced that that the government will whatever it takes to keep growth above 8% But there is a catch Even if successful in the short run, the huge shift toward government spending will almost certainly lead to significantly slower growth rates a few years down the road Simply put, it is far from clear that marginal infrastructure projects are worth building, given that China is already investing more than 45% of its income, much of it in infrastructure True, some of China’s fiscal stimulus effectively consists of loans to the private sector via the highly controlled banking sector But is there any reason to believe that new loans will go to worthy projects rather than to politically connected borrowers? In fact, China’s success so far has come from maintaining a balance between government and private sector expansion Sharply raising the government’s already outsized profile in the economy will upset this delicate balance leading to slower growth in the future It would be preferable for China to find a way to substitute Chinese for US private consumption demand, but the system seems unable to move quickly in this direction If government investment has to be the main vehicle, then it would be far better to build desperately needed schools and hospitals than “bridges to nowhere,” as Japan famously did when it went down a similar path in the 1990’s Unfortunately, China’s local officials need to excel in the country’s “growth tournament” to get promoted Schools and hospitals simply not generate the kind of fast tax revenue and GDP growth needed to outperform political rivals Even prior to the onset of the global recession, there were strong reasons to doubt the sustainability of China’s growth paradigm The environmental degradation is obvious even to casual observers And economists have started to calculate that if China were to continue its prodigious growth rate, it would soon occupy far too large a share of the global economy to maintain its recent export trajectory So a shift to greater domestic consumption was inevitable anyway The global recession has simply brought that problem forward a few years Interestingly, the US faces a number of similar challenges For years, the US achieved fast growth by deferring attention to a variety of issues, ranging from the environment to infrastructure to health care Even absent the financial crisis, addressing the shortcomings in these areas would likely have slowed down US growth This is not to say that the US and China are the same One of the great challenges ahead is to find a way to bring these two countries’ savings into line, given the vast trade imbalances that many believe planted the seeds of financial crisis I was reminded of the challenge recently when a Chinese researcher explained that men in China today feel compelled to save in order to find a bride The same week, a former student of mine who lost his lucrative financial-sector job explained that he had no savings because it was so expensive to date in New York! These social differences have little to with the yuan-dollar exchange rates, although that matters, too One way or the other, the financial crisis is likely to slow medium-term Chinese growth significantly But will its leaders succeed in stabilizing the situation in the near term? I hope so, but I would be more convinced by a plan tilted more toward domestic private consumption, health, and education than to one based on the same growth strategy of the past 30 years Super-Sizing the IMF is Wrong (2008-11-03) As the global financial crisis radiates out from the developed economies into emerging markets, it is ravaging not only governance-challenged economies such as Venezuela, Russia, and Argentina The crisis is also striking countries like Brazil, Korea, and South Africa, which appeared to have made substantial and lasting progress towards macroeconomic stability For this reason, the future shape of the International Monetary Fund is rapidly moving to the top of the agenda for world leaders as they prepare to meet in Washington in midNovember to discuss the future of the global financial system Just a short time ago, the IMF seemed relegated to a sustained period of irrelevance as it failed to modernize either its euro-centric political representation or its arcane government-to-government lending facilities Suddenly, the Fund has moved to center stage as the only agency seemingly capable of stemming the vicious downward spiral that is currently seizing emerging-market stocks and bonds World leaders should be happy that the IMF stands ready to take the lead in the next phase of the global financial crisis, even if its lending resources of approximately $250 billion are inadequate to stem the current run on emerging markets Emerging-market companies alone have hundreds of billions coming due in the next twelve months, far more than their governments’ reserves can cover if credit markets not normalize Unlike United States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, most emerging-market central bankers are in no position to extend blank checks across their economies without a boomerang effect on interest rates and exchange rates (We will see how investors judge the dollar once the smoke clears and the huge expansion of US money and debt becomes evident.) But it would be a terrible mistake simply to super-size the IMF in its current guise by greatly scaling up its lending facilities, as many propose Rather, the Fund’s role, even in the current crisis, should be sharpened as an interlocutor between lenders and developing country borrowers, rather than simply as a replacement for all other loan sources The key reforms for the IMF remain (1) improving governance by reducing European representation while increasing that of Asia, and (2) focusing the Fund’s mission on monitoring and surveillance rather than as a direct provider of bailout loans Contrary to popular opinion, now is exactly the right time to make these changes Rich country governments, led by central banks, should provide the large scale funding needed to stem the run on developing country finances The Fund’s main role should be in monitoring Without its own currency, the IMF is poorly positioned to intervene with the overwhelming force needed for lender-of-last-resort operations In principle, the IMF could be allowed to print money (it already has its own accounting unit, the so-called Special Drawing Rights) But this is not realistic, given the lack of an adequate system for global governance Even the euro area, which is far more cohesive than the world as a whole, has not quite figured out how to use its central bank as lender of last resort The IMF’s lending resources have shrunk dramatically relative to world trade and income compared over the past 50 years But increasing its resources to a trillion dollars or more is not a realistic option, either The IMF does not have an adequate framework for handling the massive defaults that could easily attend a huge surge in lending, much less the political will to distinguish between countries that are facing genuine short-term liquidity problems and countries that are actually facing insolvency problems So what should world leaders with the IMF? In the short run, the IMF could help coordinate additional loans from countries such as the US, Japan, and China, to help maintain economic and political stability in the developing world Without directly acknowledging America’s central role in causing the financial crisis, the US Federal Reserve has already offered to exchange up to $30 billion each with the central banks of Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Singapore The IMF can also play a useful role in helping surplus countries manage their foreign exchange reserves, much as the Bank for International Settlements already does World leaders can allow the IMF to sell some of its gold stock to endow the agency with enough cash to fund its monitoring and surveillance functions Then in the future, it will not need to make crisis loans just to keep the lights on in the building As tempting as it may be to ramp up IMF lending on a long-term basis, this would be a strategic mistake for both the world and the Fund The rich countries, together with China and the Middle East oil exporters indeed need to take bold steps to help out emerging markets, and the Fund has a useful role to play But super-sizing the Fund, without sufficient governance improvements and lending constraints, would give the world too much of a good thing 10 Busted Bailout (2008-09-30) Spend in haste; repent at leisure With minds concentrated by fears of another 1930’s-style Great Depression, America’s political leaders developed, virtually overnight, a $700 billion bailout plan to resuscitate the country’s rapidly deflating financial sector But, just as stunningly, rank-and-file members of the US House of Representatives have rejected it – at least for now Perhaps they were right to be skeptical The plan’s central conceit is that government ingenuity can disentangle the trillion-dollar “sub-prime” mortgage loan market, even though Wall Street’s own rocket scientists have utterly failed to so To boot, we have been told that government is so clever that it might even make money on the whole affair Perhaps, but let’s not forget that a lot of very smart people in the financial industry thought the same thing until quite recently Just a year ago, the United States had five major freestanding investment banks that stood atop its mighty financial sector Collectively, their employees shared more than $36 billion dollars in bonuses last year, thanks to the huge profits these institutions “earned” on their risky and aggressive business strategies These strategies typically involve far more risk – and sophistication – than the activities of traditional commercial banks In mid-August, I had the temerity to predict that risks had come home to roost, and that a large US investment bank might soon fail or be forced into a highly distressed merger Little did I imagine that today, there would be no freestanding investment bank left on Wall Street Indeed, after years of attracting many of the world’s best and brightest into ultra-high paying jobs, collapsing investment banks are now throwing them out left and right One such victim, a former student, called me the other day and asked, “What am I supposed to now, get a real job?” This brings us back to the US Treasury’s plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to unclog the sub-prime mortgage market The idea is that the US government would serve as buyer of last resort for the junk debt that the private sector has not been able to price Who, exactly, would the Treasury employ to figure all this out? Why, unemployed investment bankers, of course! Let’s ponder this Investment bankers have been losing their cushy jobs because they could not figure out any convincing way to price distressed mortgage debt Otherwise, their firms would have been able to tap the trillions of dollars now sitting on the sidelines, held by sovereign wealth funds, private equity groups, hedge funds, and others Now, working for the taxpayer, these same investment bankers will suddenly come up with the magic pricing formula that has eluded them until now Little wonder that academics across the political spectrum have expressed considerable skepticism True, the Treasury would take equity stakes in some firms, so there would be some upside potential But the main concern centers around the Treasury’s apparent intention to pay more than double the current market price (20-30 cents on the dollar) on the premise that its success in untangling the mortgage market would make any discount seem like a bargain Does such nitpicking fail to recognize the urgency of fixing the financial system? Isn’t any plan better than none? I, for one, am not convinced Efficient financial systems are supposed to promote growth in the real economy, not impose a huge tax burden And the US financial sector, in greasing the wheels of the real economy, has been soaking up an astounding 30% of corporate profits and 10% of wages Thus, unlike in the 1930’s, the US faces a hypertrophied financial system Isn’t it possible, then, that rather than causing a Great Depression, significant shrinkage of the financial sector, particularly if facilitated by an improved regulatory structure, might actually enhance efficiency and growth? I am not suggesting that the government should sit on its hands It needs to provide an expanded form of deposit insurance during this time of turmoil, so that there are no more Northern Rock-style bank runs That was a big lesson of the 1930’s The government may also need to consider injecting funds more directly into the mortgage sector while the private sector reconstitutes itself Certainly, the government must also find better ways to help homeowners and their lenders work out efficient bankruptcy proceedings It makes no sense for banks to foreclose on homes when there are workout options whereby people could stay in their homes and banks could recover far more money Eventually, after further twists, turns, and huge expenditures, the US will emerge from its epic financial crisis The proposal that was defeated was not sufficiently targeted at pruning back insolvent banks, but it will almost certainly not be the last word, regardless of how Congress now proceeds ... background of the study including theory of discourse analysis and modality Chapter 2: An Analysis of Modality in Some Commentaries on Global Financial Crisis 2008- 2009 This is the focus of the study... auxiliaries and four word classes carrying modal meanings as main means to express modality in data analyzed 22 CHAPTER 2: AN ANALYSIS OF MODALITY IN SOME COMMENTARIES ON GLOBAL CRISIS 2008 - 2009 2.1... Words Carrying Modal Meanings .20 1.3.4.3 Other means: Tenses, Mood and Particles .21 CHAPTER 2: AN ANALYSIS OF MODALITY IN SOME COMMENTARIES ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008 - 2009 23 2.1