Impact assessment of poverty reduction programs of ho chi minh city in vietnam

INTRODUCTION

Research background

Vietnam has achieved significant success in poverty reduction, with the poverty rate plummeting from 58.1% in 1993 to 9.6% in 2012, lifting approximately 32 million people out of poverty While both urban and rural areas have seen declines in poverty, rural areas experienced a more rapid reduction—from 66.4% in 1993 to 17.4% in 2010—compared to urban areas, which decreased from 25.0% to 6.9% during the same period However, urban poverty has emerged as a pressing issue, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of poverty that goes beyond income and expenditure metrics to effectively address the evolving challenges in Vietnam's socio-economic landscape.

Multi-dimensional poverty index (MPI) is developed by Oxford University, England UNDP first applied Multidimensional Poverty Index in Vietnam Human Development Report

In 2010, a comprehensive index was developed to capture the multifaceted nature of poverty, encompassing education, health, property, and access to services By adopting a multidimensional approach to poverty, policymakers can more effectively identify program beneficiaries and understand their vulnerabilities, enabling the design of targeted support programs.

Ho Chi Minh City has made significant strides in poverty reduction over the past two decades, achieving remarkable results By 2013, the city reported nearly no poor households, based on the national poverty line established in 2011.

In recent years, national support policies, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City, have proven to be effective; however, the city's poverty rate may be underestimated when considering non-income indicators As urbanization and migration continue to rise, it is crucial to implement poverty reduction policies that align with the socio-economic characteristics of vulnerable populations to enhance overall poverty alleviation efforts.

The "Support to Multi-Dimensional Poverty Reduction in Ho Chi Minh" project seeks to deliver a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Ho Chi Minh City By assessing the effectiveness of the city's poverty reduction policies and programs, this research aims to create a robust framework for revising strategies and policies, ultimately promoting sustainable poverty alleviation in the years ahead.

2 Report on the implementation of policies and national target program on poverty reduction in 2011-2012 – Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs

Literature review of urban poverty

Vietnam transitioned to a low-middle income country in 2010, overcoming its status as one of the world's poorest nations in just two decades However, economic recession and slow growth have adversely affected the poverty reduction rate, which has significantly declined in recent years (WB, 2012; VASS, 211) Urban poverty has emerged as a critical challenge for socio-economic development, fueled by increasing urbanization and migration from rural areas In 2011, the urban population reached 27.9 million, comprising 31.7 percent of the national total While the urban poverty rate appears low when assessed solely by income or expenditure criteria, with rates of 3.6 percent and 0.32 percent for poor and near-poor households in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City respectively, a multi-dimensional perspective reveals a more severe urban poverty situation (Oxfam UK and Action Aid, 2012).

Research on poverty in Vietnam predominantly targets rural and mountainous regions, with limited focus on urban poverty due to small sample sizes in household surveys To address this gap, the Urban Poverty Survey 2009 (UPS-2009) was conducted by the statistics departments of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City at the end of 2009, aiming to provide more reliable data for a thorough assessment of urban poverty in Vietnam.

The UPS-2009 survey, which assessed 3,349 households in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, is the sole comprehensive source of information on the living conditions of migrants in these urban areas, including seasonal and unregistered migrants This survey incorporates multi-dimensional indicators across eight poverty dimensions: income, education, healthcare, access to social security, housing quality, living area, housing services, and participation in social organizations While Ho Chi Minh City has a lower overall poverty rate compared to Hanoi, it exhibits higher poverty rates across all social dimensions, particularly in access to social security, housing services, and adequate living conditions Notably, income is not a significant factor contributing to multi-dimensional poverty in Ho Chi Minh; instead, the lack of education plays a critical role, especially among migrant households, where multi-dimensional poverty is particularly pronounced.

Nguyen et al (2012) utilize UPS-2009 data and a binomial logistic regression model to identify the key determinants of urban poverty in Ho Chi Minh City, applying a poverty line of 12 million VND per person per year for the period of 2010-2015 The study examines both traditional household characteristics, such as composition, physical assets, education, and occupation, as well as policy-related factors including registration status, health insurance coverage, and migration status Findings indicate that higher academic qualifications significantly increase the likelihood of escaping poverty, while health issues and the absence of health insurance elevate poverty risk Additionally, households led by heads employed in the private sector are more susceptible to poverty compared to those in public or foreign direct investment sectors Interestingly, recent migrants to the city are often impoverished, whereas long-term migrants, despite lacking registration, are more likely to be non-poor.

Since 2008, Oxfam UK and Action Aid have conducted participatory monitoring of urban poverty in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Hai Phong, yielding valuable insights through annual surveys The 2012 report synthesizes five years of poverty monitoring, revealing that while living conditions for the urban poor have improved, progress remains slow and the poverty rate is still high from a multi-dimensional perspective Qualitative findings indicate that the urban poor face significant challenges, including a lack of human resources, limited capacity for alternative livelihoods, insufficient social capital, restricted access to public services, and unsafe living conditions Additionally, migrants encounter further disadvantages due to the high cost of living in these major cities.

Despite existing research on multi-dimensional poverty, there has been no comprehensive evaluation of program impacts using this approach Previous studies primarily focus on income poverty indicators or specific policy impacts, such as Bui et al (2013) on education support, Wagstaff (2009) on health insurance, and Swain et al (2008) on micro-finance in the Mekong River Delta This report aims to assess the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction and Increase of Better-off Households Program through a multi-dimensional lens, analyzing the effects of five support policy groups Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study includes a survey of 1,002 poor and near-poor households, in-depth interviews with relevant departments, and group discussions, offering a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the program's impact.

Research purposes

Ho Chi Minh City is currently evaluating its achievements and challenges from Phase 3 of the Poverty Reduction and Better-off Household Program in preparation for Phase 4 This review aims to enhance the implementation plan and policy support mechanisms for the upcoming phase The report focuses on assessing the impact of five key policy groups on poverty reduction outcomes, which include housing support and education.

Healthcare; (iv) Credit and (v) Vocational training and job creation The report will focus on

4 aspects of each policy group including:

Access to poverty support policies/programs of poor households, especially migrants and laborers in informal sector

Impact of support policies/programs on poor/near poor households

Challenges in implementing support policies/programs to poor/near poor households Suggestions to enhance the impact of support policies/programs

The report combines quantitative and qualitative findings to evaluate the impact of the Poverty Reduction Program on beneficiary households and assess the efficiency of the implementation process, from identifying policy beneficiaries to delivering support.

Report structure

The report is structured into five chapters, beginning with an overview of urban poverty evaluation and the necessity for assessing the impact of the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction and Increase Better-off Households Program Chapter 2 details the methodology employed in the analysis Chapter 3 reviews the program's overall evaluation, outlining the five main support policy groups and their implementation outcomes Chapter 4 examines the impact of these policy groups on poverty reduction, highlighting the access poor and near-poor households have to support policies, their effects, and the challenges faced during implementation Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes the impact assessment results of the Poverty Reduction Program and offers policy implications aimed at enhancing the program's support mechanisms and efficiency for future initiatives.

IMPACT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

Qualitative research methodology

Qualitative study was designed based on policy analysis conducted by line departments about

The Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction and Increasing Better-off Households Program Phase III is grounded in a thorough analysis of the socio-economic landscape The study utilized qualitative methods, including in-depth interviews with policymakers involved in the city's Poverty Reduction Program and focused group discussions with beneficiary households and migrant groups This approach allowed for a comprehensive evaluation of policy implementation, identifying both successes and challenges through consultations with department directors and their reports The impact and applicability of the policies were assessed through discussions with direct beneficiaries, ensuring an unbiased understanding of the program's effectiveness Overall, the qualitative research design complements quantitative findings, offering valuable insights into the development and execution of poverty reduction initiatives.

This qualitative research employs a multi-dimensional analysis method to examine five key policy groups: education support, vocational training and job finding support, health care support, and housing and credit support Within each group, the study addresses four critical issues: access for poor and near-poor households, the results of policy implementation, the overall impact of these policies, and the limitations encountered during the implementation process, along with recommendations for necessary improvements to achieve future objectives.

In-depth interview concentrates on the following issues:

Assigned roles and responsibility of each line department in the poverty reduction process

Important poverty reduction programs and policies implemented from 2009 to present and in the coming years

Implementation progress and difficulties arising from the program and policy implementation process

Achievements and efficiency of poverty reduction policies, including policies on education, health, vocational training, job creation, health care, housing and credit supports

Recommendations on the improvements and changes to improve current poverty reduction policies’ effectiveness

Detailed contents of focused group discussions included:

Participants’ socio-economic characteristics (income, academic qualification, place of birth, ethnic group, gender, type of job, resident registration)

Major factors related to individual/household vulnerabilities such as illnesses, damages due by natural disasters, accidents or inflation

Access to health care, education, legal support, credit program

Access to social security programs such as health insurance, social insurance

Access to housing support policy

Access to vocational training policy

Difficulties in the access and its reasons

Recommendations of individuals/households (if any)

The in-depth interview involved officials responsible for implementing and coordinating the Ho Chi Minh poverty reduction program across three levels: city, district, and ward/commune.

Members of Poverty Reduction Steering Committee

Member of District Poverty Reduction Committee 4 in 3 districts

Member of Ward/Commune Poverty Reduction Committee in 3 wards/communes Department of Finance 5

Department of Planning and Investment

Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (Vocational training Division, Labor salary Division)

Ho Chi Minh City Social Insurance Agency

Department of Education and Training

Department of Agriculture and Rural Development

Ho Chi Minh City Women Union

Ho Chi Minh City Branch of Vietnam Bank for Social Policies

Career center 6 of Youth Union

CEP Fund (under the management of Confederation of Labor)

Ho Chi Minh Association for Promoting Education

4 Ho Chi Minh City has 24 districts

The Department of Finance was initially selected for an in-depth interview; however, due to unforeseen circumstances, the consultation group was unable to conduct the interview with the department director.

6 One of the eight centers in the city was interviewed

7 Two issues were consulted: vocational training and job finding policies

The research team intends to conduct an in-depth interview with a representative of the Fatherland Front Committee; however, due to various objective reasons, we are unable to proceed with these interviews at this time.

Focused group discussions were conducted with beneficiary households to gather diverse and comparable information Participants were selected based on varying socio-economic characteristics, ensuring a comprehensive representation of different household groups The discussions included both advantageous and disadvantaged households from three distinct areas: urban, suburban (migrant groups), and rural Specifically, the focus was on poor and near-poor households, immigrant families from rural areas or other provinces, and low-wage labor groups engaged in seasonal work Each discussion group consisted of 12 members, reflecting the diversity of the households involved.

Quantitative research methodology

This section outlines the sampling method utilized in the survey for collecting quantitative data A crucial aspect of survey sample design for evaluating the impact of policies, programs, or projects is identifying a control group that shares similar characteristics with the treatment group, particularly those who do not benefit from the policies In the case of the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program, which targets disadvantaged groups such as poor households and their children, finding non-poor households with comparable traits is challenging Consequently, this research defined the control group as households with incomes near the poverty line, while the treatment group consisted of poor households close to the poverty threshold This approach ensures a high level of similarity between the two groups Additionally, both groups reside in the same area, eliminating socio-economic disparities between the wards or communes Coupled with the fuzzy regression discontinuity method, this sampling technique minimizes measurement errors when assessing policy impacts.

The formula to determine the sample size is as follow:

To determine the necessary sample size (n) for both the control and treatment groups, we utilize a statistical value (t) corresponding to a 95 percent confidence level, typically set at 1.96 Key indicators for this analysis include the poverty rate, which stood at 8.4 percent in 2009; the net enrollment rate in secondary education at 74.1 percent; the proportion of untrained labor at 70 percent; and the percentage of households with an average area per person below 7m², recorded at 30.7 percent Additionally, 66 percent of the population had health insurance in 2009, and we also consider the increase rate of household income The margin of error (m) can be assessed based on the sample size for each of these indicators.

D: the impact of sample design (often equal to 2 in case of stratified sampling)

To effectively optimize sampling design within a constrained budget, a control group consisting of 250 non-poor households with incomes near the poverty threshold of 1 million VND per person per month was established Additionally, the treatment group was composed of 750 households, with the assumption that each policy group included approximately 250 households from 2009 until the survey commenced Utilizing the specified sampling size formula, the statistical test error, which reflects the minimum measurable change resulting from each policy's impact, can be accurately calculated.

Households may benefit from multiple policies, leading to potential overlaps in the treatment groups across different policy initiatives The proposed study will involve a total sample size of 1,000 households, comprising approximately 750 households in the beneficiary group and 250 households in the control group.

2.2.1.1.3 Sampling frame used for sample selection

The sample selection was based on the 2009 survey results of poor households in Ho Chi Minh City, which provided comprehensive data on both poor and near-poor households This database included essential details such as the householder's first and last names, addresses, monthly average income per head, and the number of inhabitants Consequently, the sample comprised beneficiary groups (poor households) and a control group (non-poor households) with average per capita incomes closely aligned with the poverty line.

Based on previous surveys’ calculations, optimized sample size for each survey area is within

The research focused on 15 to 20 households within similar areas, as they exhibit greater similarities than those from different regions Utilizing data from household surveys, the study identified 50 survey areas across 10 out of the 24 districts in the city, as detailed in Hans Petterson's report on the sample design for the Household Living Standards Survey.

In the selected areas, the research randomly identifies 20 households from the beneficiary groups, comprising 15 households from the official list and 5 from the reservation list Additionally, 7 households from the control group are included, with 5 households also sourced from the official list.

The study includes two households from the reservation list, strategically selecting both the beneficiary group and the control group within the same area This approach minimizes the influence of other policies, projects, and programs, thereby enhancing the statistical accuracy of the impact assessment for five distinct policy groups.

To ensure the representative of each area, all districts are divided into 4 groups The rich districts (Group 1) includes district 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11 The middle income districts (Group

2) includes district 8, Tan Binh district, Go Vap district, and Binh Thanh district The poor district (Group 3) includes district 7, 9, 12, Thu Duc district, Tan Phu district and Binh Tan district The rural area (Group 4) includes Cu Chi district, Hoc Mon district, Binh Chanh district, Nha Be district and Can Gio district

The distribution of chosen districts is based on the number of total poor households in 2009 Therefore, the number of chosen districts was determined by the following formula:

In which: n i : the number of districts allocated to the sample of group i m i : the total number of poor households in districts of group i

M: the total number of poor households in the city in 2009

This sampling method utilizes self-calculating weights, ensuring that the likelihood of a household being selected for the sample is proportional to the total number of impoverished households within each district group The sample allocation across the groups is as follows: Group 1 consists of 2 districts, Group 2 includes 2 districts, Group 3 comprises 3 districts, and Group 4 also contains 3 districts.

Distribution of each group into the sample

Once the number of districts assigned to each group has been established, the next step involves allocating these districts to the survey sample The selection method used for each group is Probability Proportional to Size (PPS), which is based on the total number of impoverished households in each district The chosen districts for the sample are as follows:

District name The total number of poor households

The selection of survey area

In each selected district, 10 survey areas (wards) are identified using the Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) method, which increases the likelihood of selecting areas with a higher number of impoverished households For a comprehensive list of the chosen survey areas, please see Annex 1.

The selection of survey households

The selection of survey households involves a three-step process to ensure balanced socio-economic characteristics between treatment and control groups Initially, the survey targets both poor and non-poor households with incomes close to the poverty line of approximately 1 million VND per person per month From this filtered list, 20 poor households and 7 non-poor households are randomly selected for each area Finally, the selected households are categorized into an official list and a backup list, with 15 out of 20 poor households assigned to the official survey list and 5 to the backup, while for the non-poor households, 5 are included in the official list and 2 in the backup.

Poverty reduction officials in the wards and communes receive a list of selected households for review and updates, particularly focusing on households that have relocated after five years If any household from the official survey list has moved out of the survey area, a new household will be randomly chosen from the sampling frame to ensure the original sample size remains intact.

The absence of a baseline survey highlights the critical need for data collection prior to the policy's effective date To enhance the accuracy and reliability of the impact assessment, the questionnaire will gather information from respondents both before 2009 and during the interview It is designed based on initial findings from qualitative research and consultations with relevant line departments involved in policy implementation The questionnaire will not only capture general household information, including demographic details, household head characteristics, average per capita income, assets, and living standards, but will also address the applicability of policies and the specific needs of households.

2 for the detailed questionnaire) Below is the main information that will be collected by the quantitative questionnaire (besides general information of the household)

Limitations and difficulties during research implementation process

Main difficulties in qualitative research

The research faced certain limitations, particularly in accessing reports on the implementation of the city's Poverty Reduction Program In-depth interviews with respondents from the Department of Finance and the National Front were not feasible due to objective reasons However, the limited missing information was largely compensated by data from the city's Poverty Reduction Committee, ensuring that these constraints did not significantly affect the evaluation results.

The survey, initiated with a sample drawn from households in 2009, encountered challenges as many residents had relocated by the survey's start Local officials often lacked complete information about current inhabitants and did not promptly inform households of the survey schedule, complicating interviewers' access and the need for substitute households Anticipating these issues, the consultation team prepared a reservation list, enabling interview teams to adhere to the survey timeline while ensuring data quality.

Surveyed areas Non-surveyed areas

THE OVERVIEW OF HO CHI MINH POVERTY REDUCTION PROGRAM

Socio-economic background in Ho Chi Minh

Ho Chi Minh City's urbanization began in the late 17th century under the Nguyen Dynasty, but its economy experienced significant growth following Vietnam's transition to a market economy in the early 1990s Today, it stands as one of Vietnam's two primary economic, financial, and cultural hubs, contributing 20.7% of the national GDP, which reached 592 trillion VND in 2012 The city's budget revenue for the same year was 71,589.3 billion VND, marking a 12.6% increase from 2011 and accounting for over 30% of the national budget revenue Additionally, per capita income saw substantial improvement, rising from 10.8 million VND in 2002.

72 million VND/person/year, equivalent to 3,600 USD in 2012

Urbanization has significantly contributed to the socio-economic development of Ho Chi Minh City However, recent global economic recessions and a slowdown in Vietnam's economy have negatively affected the city's growth and strained its social security programs In 2012, while Ho Chi Minh City's economy continued to grow, the pace was notably slower compared to previous years According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), 21,746 businesses suspended operations or went bankrupt in the first 11 months of 2012, representing 96.2% of newly registered enterprises Additionally, the total number of newly created jobs in 2012 faced challenges amid these economic conditions.

In 2012, the workforce comprised 123,000 employees, reflecting a 4% decline since 2011, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.9% Between March 1 and July 12, 2012, 112,900 individuals received unemployment benefits, marking a 29% increase compared to the same period in the previous year, with a total support budget of 857.5 billion VND.

Figure 3: Ho Chi Minh City population within the period of 1996-2012

The surge in migration to Ho Chi Minh City has significantly strained the city's infrastructure and complicated poverty reduction efforts From 1996 to 2012, the city's population grew from 4.7 million to nearly 7.8 million, marking a 63.2 percent increase Although the poverty rate based on the Ho Chi Minh income poverty line was just 1.2 percent in September 2013, translating to 21,001 poor households, the income gap has widened, as evidenced by an increasing Gini ratio, which rose from 0.360 in 2002 to 0.386 in 2012 Consequently, many poor households in Ho Chi Minh continue to face significant challenges in accessing essential social security services.

Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program

The poverty line is established to address the fundamental needs of individuals, encompassing both food and non-food requirements As economies develop, the proportion of income spent on food tends to decrease, while expenditure on non-food items rises (Ravallion, 1992) In Vietnam, the current poverty line is determined by the annual average income per capita According to Decision No 09/2011/QD-TTg, effective from January 30, 2011, the poverty line for the 2011-2015 period is set at 4.8 million VND per person per year in rural areas and 6 million VND per person per year in urban areas.

Ho Chi Minh City stands as Vietnam's most advanced economic region, with a rapid increase in living expenses and a growing demand for higher living standards Consequently, the city's poverty line consistently exceeds the national average, necessitating frequent adjustments to align with the changing economic landscape.

Ho Chi Minh City has made significant strides in socio-economic development, having raised its poverty line six times to 12 million VND per person per year during the third phase of its Poverty Reduction Program While this figure is below the World Bank's poverty threshold of 2 USD per person per day, it is notably double the national poverty line, highlighting the city's commitment to improving living standards and reducing poverty.

Box 1: Ho Chi Minh poverty line from 1992 till now

February 1992: 500 thousand VND/person/year

October 1992: 1 million VND/person/year for urban areas and 700 thousand VND/person/year for rural areas

In 1995: 1.5 million VND/person/year for urban areas and 1 million VND/person/year for rural areas

In 1997: 3 million VND/person/year for urban areas and 2,5 million VND/person/year for rural areas

In 2004: 6 million VND/person/year applied for both urban and rural areas

In 2009: 12 million VND/person/year applied for both urban and rural areas

Source:Le (2006) Scientific basis and practice to determine poverty line in Ho Chi Minh

9 Ho Chi Minh Poverty line in 2009-2015 period is 12 million VND/person/year

10 Author’s calculation based on VHLSS 2002 and 2012

Launched in 1992, the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program has achieved significant success in improving the income and living standards of the poor A 2012 survey by MOLISA revealed that the poverty rate in Ho Chi Minh City was just 0.00033 percent, based on the national poverty line of 6 million VND per person per year for urban areas Despite multiple adjustments to the poverty line—typically doubling with each revision—the city has consistently seen a strong decline in poverty rates, particularly during Phases 2 and 3 of the program.

Since 2004, the poverty rate in Vietnam has significantly decreased, starting from 7.5 percent and dropping to 1.0 percent by 2008 under Phase 2's poverty line of 6 million VND per person per year With the adjustment of the poverty line to 12 million VND per person per year in Phase 3, the poverty rate was recorded at 8.4 percent in 2009, but it rapidly fell to 1.2 percent by September 2013, achieving the Phase 3 target two years ahead of schedule.

Figure 4: Poverty reduction progress in Ho Chi Minh within the period of 1992-2013

The poverty line in Vietnam has evolved over the years, with Phase 1 (1992-2004) setting the threshold at 2.5 million VND per person annually for rural areas and 3 million VND for urban areas In Phase 2 (2004-2008), the poverty line increased to 6 million VND per person per year By Phase 3 (2009-2015), the poverty line was further raised to 12 million VND per person annually.

Source: Report on the Implementation of Poverty Reduction Program in the period of 1992-2008, and annual reports within the period of 2009-2012

Table 1 provides a more detailed poverty situation in Ho Chi Minh from 2009 to

2012 Particularly, the number of poor households in 2012 decreased to only one fifth of total poor households in 2009 Even though the number of household which are out of poverty

11 Decision No 749/QD-LDTBXH dated 13/05/2013 approving survey results about the poor and near-poor households in 2012

Over the years, the number of poor households has decreased, with the poverty rate showing a positive trend The proportion of households escaping poverty has risen significantly, increasing from 32% in 2010 to 33% in 2011, and reaching 44% in 2012.

Table 1 Poverty situation in Ho Chi Minh city in the period of 2009-2012

Out of poverty rate (percent) 32 percent 33 percent 44 percent

Source: Report on the Implementation of Poverty Reduction Program in the period of 2009-2012

The Poverty Reduction and Increase of Better-off Households Phase 3 has launched numerous initiatives aimed at enhancing the living conditions of the impoverished In addition to the government's support programs, Ho Chi Minh City has developed its own policies to assist the poor Notably, Decision No 36/2012/QD-UBND, issued on August 16, 2012, established a policy to cover 15 percent of medical expenses through the Health Care Fund for the Poor Further details on the implementation of these support policies and programs will be discussed in Section 3.2.

The Poverty Reduction Program Phase 3 aims to accelerate poverty reduction and improve the living conditions of better-off households, building on the significant achievements in hunger eradication and poverty alleviation from previous phases To enhance its mission, the program now includes support for near-poor households In line with Resolution No 80/NQ-CP and Decision No 09/2011/QD-TTg, which outline sustainable poverty reduction strategies for 2011-2020, Ho Chi Minh City introduced Decision No 37/2012/QD-UBNDTP This decision establishes criteria for households at risk of falling into poverty during 2012-2015, defining those at risk as households with an average annual income of 12 million to 16 million VND, significantly above the national poverty line set by the government at 6 million to 7.8 million VND per person per year.

Decision No 36/2012/QD-UBND, issued on August 16, 2012, established support policies for the poor and near-poor during the 2012-2015 period, focusing on education, healthcare, and vocational training Near-poor households receive 50% assistance for health insurance costs and can access loans from the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund for business investments However, the support for near-poor households is significantly less than that provided to the poor, which diminishes the motivation for the poor to improve their circumstances and hinders the overall progress of the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program.

Difficulties in poverty reduction

Despite a reduction in Ho Chi Minh City's poverty rate to 1.2 percent in September 2013, many residents continue to face challenging living conditions The high inflation rate of nearly 40 percent from 2009 to 2012 has significantly impacted the cost of living, rendering the annual income of 12 million VND per person in 2012 equivalent to only 7.2 million VND per person in 2009.

In 2009, high inflation significantly impacted low-income households, leading to a decrease in the real value of the poverty line and diminishing their saving capacity As a result, these households have limited ability to cope with risks, undermining the stability and sustainability of poverty reduction efforts While some families may appear to have escaped poverty, many still face a substantial risk of falling back into it, highlighting the need for more effective and enduring solutions to poverty alleviation.

Funding for the preferential credit under the Ho Chi Minh poverty reduction program falls short of meeting the needs of both the poor and near-poor populations Despite this, certain funds, such as the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund and Fund 156, maintain a high cash balance due to officials' reluctance to extend loans to those in need Additionally, access to these preferential credit funds remains restricted, as many individuals from low-income backgrounds are hesitant to borrow, compounded by a lack of practical information regarding the borrowing process.

Support for social security policies aimed at poor and near-poor households remains inadequate, with delays in procedures hindering timely assistance Additionally, ineffective communication efforts have resulted in a significant number of households being unaware of available support policies Furthermore, many impoverished families exhibit low motivation to improve their circumstances and remain overly reliant on government aid, complicating poverty reduction efforts in Ho Chi Minh City.

Managing and reviewing migrant poor households presents significant challenges, primarily due to the requirement of a registration book or KT3 for obtaining a poor household ID Households classified under the KT4 group do not receive support from the program, and many migrant poor families do not proactively register with local authorities due to the complex procedures involved Additionally, the transient nature of migrant poor individuals complicates migration management, as they often do not remain in one location long enough to engage with local authorities Consequently, the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program has yet to extend its support to this vulnerable group.

The income-based approach to poverty has its limitations, particularly as urban poverty has evolved in more complex ways than rural poverty Oxfam and Action Aid (2012) emphasize the importance of considering non-income indicators when assessing poverty They identify five key deprivations that characterize urban multidimensional poverty, affecting both local and migrant populations.

12 According to Mr Nguyen Van Xe – Ho Chi Minh Director of Poverty Reduction Steering Committee

To qualify for KT3, renters must possess legal rental documents, have a landlord guarantee, register with the local authority, and maintain residency at a fixed address for at least 12 months Homeowners, on the other hand, need to provide complete property documentation, ensure their residence is declared, and also reside at a fixed address for a minimum of 12 months.

Figure 5: Main features of urban poverty

Source: Participatory monitoring urban poverty assessment, Oxfam and Action Aid (2012)

Implementation of support policy groups

Ho Chi Minh City boasts a comprehensive and coherent system of support policies, which are divided into five main categories: housing support, education support, health insurance card purchase assistance, credit support, and vocational training and job creation policies Among these, credit support policies have the broadest reach, significantly enhancing living conditions through initiatives in housing, education, and job creation.

Enhancing access to credit for production, healthcare, and education is essential for elevating household living standards, generating employment, and building assets to achieve sustainable poverty reduction Ho Chi Minh City has actively developed and executed various preferential credit policies aimed at supporting poor and near-poor households, enabling them to engage in business and production activities that secure stable incomes and promote asset accumulation The two primary sources of credit available are preferential credit and microfinance.

Preferential credit encompasses initiatives run by the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund (Fund 140), programs overseen by the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP), and efforts designed to promote the transition to urban agriculture from 2011 to 2015.

The Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund, overseen by the Department of Poverty Reduction and Employment, aims to support poor and near-poor households seeking loans for business production, housing improvements, education, or overseas employment fees With a low interest rate of 0.5 percent per month, the fund offers loans up to 50 million VND Households interested in securing a loan must contact the Team Leader of the Autonomous Poverty Reduction Team to initiate the borrowing request process Once the team approves the request, the Team Leader will submit the list of approved households to the Commune’s Department of Poverty Reduction for final approval.

VBSP offers a diverse range of programs tailored to meet the needs of various beneficiaries, including education, employment, and housing upgrades The organization partners with Autonomous Poverty Reduction Teams across different communes, along with the City’s Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (DOLISA), and the Women’s Union to effectively implement its preferential credit programs Currently, VBSP has introduced six major preferential credit programs to support these initiatives.

The Preferential Credit Program (Program 316) is designed to assist low-income households based on the City’s poverty criteria This initiative provides loans for business ventures, production activities, housing improvements, and educational purposes Each loan can reach a maximum of 30 million VND, featuring a low interest rate of 0.65 percent per month.

• Preferential credit for employment (Fund 71) targets households, business households and business units and aims to help address their demand in creating jobs

• Preferential credit for students to cover part of the education costs of household members The loan amount is 1 million VND per month

Preferential credits for laborers aiming to work abroad provide loans to individuals from low-income families and disadvantaged social groups, as outlined in Decision 30a/NQ-CP dated December 27, 2008 Each loan can reach up to 30 million VND per person, facilitating overseas employment opportunities for these workers.

The preferential credit program for clean water and rural sanitation is designed to assist rural households in obtaining loans for the construction or improvement of their water supply and sanitation facilities Each loan can be up to 4 million VND, enabling families to enhance their access to essential clean water and sanitation services.

The Fund 156 offers preferential credits aimed at supporting households affected by land confiscation, helping them cover education and vocational training expenses while facilitating job creation Additionally, the Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (DOLISA) plays a key role in managing this fund.

Microfinance programs, such as the Farmer Support Fund, the Fund for Women’s Economic Development (CWED), and the Aid Fund for the Employment of the Poor (CEP), primarily focus on job creation The CEP, managed by the HCMC’s Confederation of Labor, is the largest fund and targets workers from low-income households based on four specific criteria In contrast, the CWED, overseen by the Women’s Union, is designed for female members and businesswomen seeking loans to start or expand their businesses.

3.2.1.2 Results of credit policy implementation

In 2012, the Poverty Reduction Fund saw an 8 percent increase in total loan outstanding compared to 2009-2010, with the average loan value rising to 6.5 million VND, though still below the maximum support limit of 50 million VND per household Loans provided to business establishments have played a crucial role in job creation for workers from poor households, with each lending business reportedly hiring an average of 7.2 to 10.3 additional workers.

Table 2 Performance of Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund during 2009-2012

Number of loan receiving households 36,958 35,436 31,701

Average loan value (million dong) 5.0 5.7 6.5

Source: Report on Implementation of Poverty Reduction program in the period of 2009-2012

Capital sources of VBSP’s preferential credit programs

VBSP's implementation of preferential credit programs shows notable results, particularly with Program 316, which has the highest loan outstanding and the largest number of borrowing households From 2010 to 2012, the total loan outstanding remained stable at 800 billion VND However, there has been a recent decline in the number of approved loan requests, despite a slight increase in total loan outstanding.

2010, which is explained by a fact that VBSP has not received incremental state budget during the past 3 years and only used revolving funds or mobilized from other sources In

2012, the number of approved requests was reported at only 58 percent that of 2009

Table 3 Performance of 4 preferential credit programs managed by VBSP

Number of loan receiving households 58.387 53.157 55.786

Number of loan receiving households 49.452 42.816 48.868

Credit program for people to work overseas

Number of loan receiving households 159 90 111

Credit program for water and rural sanitation

Number of loan receiving households 28,333 37,148 33,140

(Source: Annual Report of Poverty Reduction Program 2009-2012 and data provided by VBSP, Ho Chi Minh City branch)

Fund for Women’s Economic Development (CWED) CWED’s capital has been continuously on the rise since 2009 with an annual growth rate of more than 23.8 percent (Figure 6)

Figure 6: Annual capital growth of CWED 2009-2012

(Source: Data provided by Ms Le Thi Thu Hien - Member of the Standing Committee – Director of Women Support Division, Women's Union of Ho Chi Minh City)

The number of approved loan requests has steadily risen over the years, with around 12,000 approvals recorded in 2012 Notably, expanding small businesses and agricultural activities represent the two primary reasons for these loan requests, together accounting for approximately 80 percent of the total.

Aid Fund for the Employment of the Poor (CEP)

As of December 2012, CEP's loan outstanding reached approximately 1,155 billion VND, accounting for about 67% of VBSP's total loan outstanding in Ho Chi Minh City In that year, CEP approved 266,512 loans based on its four established criteria Among its 218,031 clients, there were 7,586 households classified as poor and over 6,000 near-poor households, according to Ho Chi Minh City's poverty line In addition to microcredit products, CEP also provides savings options for poor households.

Saving balance (million VND) 173,052 260,735 376,355 520,848 Number of current borrowers 134,141 164,400 193,238 218,031 Loan outstanding (million VND) 522,511 723,231 938,945 1,155,664 Total asset (million VND) 550,553 793,636 972,064 1,236,375

Source: CEP’s Annual report in 2012

14 Data provided by Ms Le Thi Thu Hien - Member of the Standing Committee – Director of Women Support Division, Women's Union of Ho Chi Minh City

Annual capital of CWED (billion dong)

3.2.2 Vocational training and job creation policies

3.2.2.1 Background on vocational training and job creation policies

Ho Chi Minh City is actively enhancing the living standards and income of low-income households by implementing various policies aimed at supporting poor workers in establishing sustainable livelihoods Key initiatives focus on improving access to credit for employment opportunities The Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs, along with VBSP and several credit institutions, vocational training centers, and job placement services, collaborate to effectively execute these employment-related policies.

Household socio-economic development characteristics

4.1.1 Household demographic and income characteristics

A recent survey reveals that 98.6% of households in the surveyed districts possess a registration book The average household size is 4.3 individuals, with only a slight difference between poor households, averaging 4.4 persons, and near-poor households, averaging 4.3 persons.

The average dependent ratio, which includes children under 15 and individuals over 60, stands at 29.0 percent In the poor and near-poor demographics, this ratio is slightly lower at 28.3 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively Additionally, the average labor ratio, calculated as the number of employed persons divided by the total number of household members, is 54.5 percent, with a marginally higher rate of 55.5 percent in the poor group compared to 54.5 percent in the near-poor group.

The average age of household heads is 56.8 years, with only 6.1 years of formal education Approximately 60.0 percent of these individuals were employed in the past year, primarily in trade and services, while a mere 8.0 percent were engaged in agriculture A significant 80.0 percent of those not working cited retirement or home responsibilities as their primary reasons for inactivity.

Household head’s years of schooling 6.0 6.2 6.1

Ratio of household heads working in agriculture 6.4 8.6 8.0

Ratio of households registering residence in districts 99.6 98.3 98.6

Source: Results from Ho Chi Minh urban poverty survey 2013

The average income per capita for surveyed households is approximately 10.3 million, with poor households earning an average of 7.7 million and near-poor households 14.1 million Salary and wage income is the primary contributor, making up 65% of total household income, followed by non-agricultural activities, while fishery, agriculture, and forestry collectively account for only 3% The income structure differs significantly between poor and near-poor households; for the poor, 61.6% of income comes from wages, 26.4% from non-agricultural activities, and just 1.5% from fishery, agriculture, and forestry In contrast, near-poor households derive 66.1% of their income from wages, 21% from non-agricultural activities, and 3.5% from fishery, agriculture, and forestry.

Table 14 Household income per capita

Poor household Near-poor household Total

Income per capita (thousand VND) 7.697 14.118 10.286

A recent survey reveals that the average living area per person in Ho Chi Minh City is 15.1 m², with 25% of households having less than 7.5 m² per member Poor and near-poor households in the city have a housing area below the national average of 16.7 m², with poor households averaging just 12.5 m² per person, which is about 25% less than the near-poor group, which averages 16.0 m².

Criteria Poor household Near-poor household Total

In terms of housing quality, a significant 96.3 percent of households have walls made from concrete or brick; however, only 15.1 percent feature walls with concrete and tile roofs The predominant roofing material is cement or metal sheets Notably, near-poor households exhibit superior housing quality compared to poor households, with 18.6 percent of near-poor households having reinforced concrete or tile roofs, in contrast to just 12.2 percent of poor households.

Approximately 92.5 percent of households own their homes, with ownership rates of 88.2 percent among poor households and 93.9 percent among near-poor households Only 3.5 percent of families surveyed do not own a house, with 7.1 percent of poor households lacking homeownership compared to just 2.3 percent of near-poor households.

A recent survey reveals that over 67% of households have access to private tap water, while only 0.3% rely on unhygienic sources such as wells, rivers, lakes, or ponds Additionally, 94.7% of the households utilize septic or semi-septic tanks, with only 1.3% lacking latrines Notably, the percentage of poor households with septic systems is slightly higher at 95.3%, compared to 94.5% among near-poor households.

Table 17 Water and hygienic latrines

Main source of water is hygienic 25.9 34.9 32.6

Type of latrines percent septic tanks and semi-septic tanks 95.3 94.5 94.7 percent others 3.9 4.0 4.0 percent no latrines 0.8 1.5 1.3

The net enrolment ratio, which measures the percentage of the official age group enrolled in a specific level of education compared to the total population, stands at 92.3% for primary school and 95.1% for secondary school Adults over the age of 15 have an average of 7.8 years of schooling, while 13.1% of the labor force has received vocational training Although the near-poor household group outperforms the poor household group across all four educational indicators, the differences between the two are relatively minor.

Adult’s average years of schooling 7.6 7.8 7.8

Ratio of labors having vocational training 12.0 13.5 13.1

According to the survey, approximately 19.6 percent of individuals from the surveyed households are currently enrolled in school, with a significant 91.7 percent attending public institutions Among these students, only 21.9 percent benefit from tuition fee exemptions or reductions Notably, the exemption rate is higher among the poor group at 29.3 percent compared to 19.3 percent in the near-poor group.

Exempted and reduced support accounts for 61.7% of the tuition fee and 30.9% of facility contributions Students from low-income families receive cash assistance of 900,000 VND, nearly double the amount provided to those from near-poor families.

Table 19 Output targets and educational outcomes

The rate of students getting tuition fee exemption 29.3 19.3 21.9

Proportion( percent)of tuition fee exemption

The amount in cash granted for a student on average 900 504 645

4.1.4 Health status and access to health care

A recent survey revealed that 41.1% of respondents experienced illness or injury in the past year Among these individuals, only 31.3% consistently sought medical care, while 42.7% occasionally visited healthcare facilities The prevalence of self-medication remains significant in poor and near-poor households, with approximately 25.8% lacking access to healthcare services Notably, the percentage is higher for poor households at 29.5%, compared to 24.4% for near-poor households.

The rate of people sick or injured in the last 12 months 41.8 40.8 41.1

The rate of medical examination at healthcare facilities

Most individuals seeking medical treatment typically visit state health centers, yet only 3.5 percent utilize ward or commune health centers A significant 71.6 percent of low-income and near-poor households turn to district hospitals for care Additionally, the percentage of the poor group seeking treatment at district hospitals is higher than that of the near-poor group, with 73.7 percent versus 70.9 percent, respectively.

Table 21 Access to health insurance

The rate of people having health insurance 65.2 67.4 66.9

The rate of people usually using health insurance 46.9 51.6 50.4

On average, the health insurance coverage rate stands at 66.9 percent for both poor and near-poor groups, with 65.2 percent for the poor and 67.4 percent for the near-poor Notably, only 50.4 percent of individuals frequently utilize their health insurance when seeking medical care Despite a higher incidence of illness and injury among poor households, their rate of regular health insurance use is 46.9 percent, which is lower than the 51.6 percent observed in near-poor households.

A recent survey indicates that a significant portion of households rely on formal borrowing, with an average of 50.9 percent of total loans sourced from this sector Notably, 60.8 percent of poor households receive loans, surpassing the 47.6 percent of near-poor households Key borrowing sources for both groups include the VBSP credit schemes and the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund, although near-poor households encounter more challenges in accessing preferential loans Specifically, 23.9 percent of loans for the poor come from the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund, compared to only 17.4 percent for near-poor households Conversely, near-poor households have better access to commercial bank loans, with 13.9 percent borrowing from banks, while only 3.7 percent of poor households do the same.

Table 22 Borrowing situation in formal credit sector

Percentage of households borrowing formal credit 60.8 47.6 51.0

Proportion of borrowing from different sources

Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund 23.9 17.4 19.5

Preferential credit policies

Policies that facilitate access to preferential credit and micro-credit for low-income households are crucial for promoting sustainable livelihoods, enhancing living standards, and ensuring stability A variety of micro-credit programs, managed by numerous credit institutions and agencies, cater to diverse needs Notable initiatives include extensive loan offerings from the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund (Fund 140) and the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP), as well as micro-credit programs from the Capital Aid Fund for Women in Economic Development (CWED) and the Capital Aid Fund for Employment of the Poor (CEP).

Communication efforts regarding preferential credit programs for low-income households have proven effective as agencies and credit institutions expand their information networks at the local level For instance, the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP) collaborates closely with local authorities and mass organizations to relay information to households and small businesses Additionally, these programs are promoted through local radio and information boards at People's Committees The CWED fund, managed by the Women’s Union, disseminates information during monthly thematic meetings, while the CEP network utilizes the Women’s Union, local authorities, and its staff to enhance information distribution and maximize outreach.

Despite the extensive information network of credit institutions and agencies, communication efforts need enhancement to adequately inform poor and near-poor households about available programs Survey results indicate that only 70.5% of poor households and 59.0% of near-poor households are aware of the Job Creation Loan Program, with many unaware of their eligibility as beneficiaries Notably, 27.7% of poor households refrain from borrowing because they believe they do not qualify for the program, highlighting a significant gap in awareness and outreach.

The funding procedure is being enhanced and streamlined, primarily through the Poverty Reduction Group Borrowers need only submit their loan applications to the head of this group, which will then gather feedback from other households Eligible applications are forwarded to the commune/ward center and the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP) for approval Due to the rigorous assessment of household borrowing needs and consulting activities, the rejection rate for loan applications remains very low.

Box 2 Funding procedure is simple and quick

In 2011, after successfully repaying a previous loan of 5 million VND from the Women Union, I sought financial assistance to help my daughter-in-law open a grocery store at home A village staff member guided me to the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP), where I found the loan application process to be straightforward By submitting my application to the village authority and joining a loan saving group, I secured a loan of 30 million VND, backed by the guarantee of the local ward/commune.

Source: Opinion of a household in Thu Duc, group discussion in 27/6/2013

The result shows that the rate of poor and near-poor households getting preferential credit is relatively high (60.8 percent for poor group and 47.6 percent for near-poor group)

VBSP is the predominant lending source for poor households, providing 40.8% of their loans, while accounting for 36.0% of loans for near-poor households Other financial institutions, particularly CEP, significantly contribute to the financing of these households Furthermore, approximately 28.9% of total loans accessed by poor and near-poor households come from various credit institutions and agencies, facilitating easier access to funds.

Table 28 Lending performance from formal source of poor/near-poor households

Proportion of household received loan 60.8 47.6 51.0

Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund 23.9 17.4 19.5

Source: Results from Ho Chi Minh Urban Poverty Survey 2013

Data indicates that poor and near-poor households have better access to preferential credits from formal sources for production and business needs, with 41.0% of their total loans coming from these sources, compared to only 16.2% from informal lenders However, access to formal loans for medical treatment and consumption is limited, leading these households to rely on unofficial sources, which account for 41.3% of loans for consumption and 15.6% for medical expenses In contrast, loans from formal sources for these purposes are significantly lower, at 22.1% for consumption and just 4.0% for medical treatment.

There is a lack of surveyed household borrowing for working abroad, which aligns with findings from VBSP Despite having a special credit program for impoverished workers seeking overseas employment, the funding for this initiative is severely limited, with total loans ranging from only 2 to 3 billion VND Consequently, the proportion of poor and near-poor households accessing these loans remains minimal.

Table 29 Lending purposes for formal and informal loan of poor/near-poor households

Evaluating the quantitative impact of credit policies presents significant challenges in applied economics, primarily due to the fact that borrowing households base their decisions on lending conditions and personal needs This decision-making process is unobservable, leading to variations in characteristics among households that take out loans.

Between 2009 and 2012, the VBSP operational report highlighted the loan approval process for five main programs, revealing that households lacking access to preferential loans could still seek funding from formal and informal credit sources Research by Quach and Mullineux (2007) demonstrated that credit significantly boosts household expenditures, utilizing instrumental-variable regression with VLSS data from 1993 and 1998 Similarly, Nguyen (2008) employed instrumental-variable regression with VHLSS data from 2004 to confirm that preferential credits from the Bank of Social Policies positively impact poor households by increasing expenditures and alleviating poverty.

Table 30 Impacts of credit policies

Logarithm of annual income during the last year Preferential loans (From VBSP Job creation Fund

Poverty Reduction Program and other preferential credits)

Proportion of female household members 0.024 0.002 28.87 -0.119

Proportion of household children under 15 years of age 0.038 0.029 24.10 -0.640***

Proportion of household members over 60 years of age 0.063 0.039 4.11 -0.523***

Schooling years of household head 0.002 0.003* 3.08*** 0.016***

* Significant level is at 10 percent; ** significant level is at 5 percent; *** significant level is at 1 percent

This research evaluates the effects of Ho Chi Minh City's preferential credit policies by analyzing the relationship between average income, household welfare, and borrowing preferential credits The findings indicate that the influence of credit on household income and welfare is minimal and statistically insignificant Additionally, data presented in Tables 41 and 42 of Annex 3 reveal that the impact of credit does not significantly differ between rural and urban households or among households with varying education levels of heads Consequently, the study concludes that preferential credit has no significant effect on household welfare or employment outcomes.

While quantitative analysis may not clearly demonstrate the effects of credit policies, focus group discussions with low-income households indicate that these policies positively influence livelihood diversification and income enhancement Many families have accessed preferential credits to bolster their business or production activities However, some borrowers noted that, despite an increase in income, stability remains an issue According to Action Aid and Oxfam (2012), households that successfully escape poverty often own rental properties or have successful children who can help repay loans and improve their economic circumstances.

Households involved in focus group discussions indicated that preferential credit programs have been instrumental in reducing reliance on usury loans These programs have increased awareness of the drawbacks associated with high-interest borrowing, leading to a gradual decline in usury loan usage, a prevalent issue in the city By providing formal preferential loans, these initiatives have significantly lowered the tendency for poor and near-poor households to seek out informal credit sources.

Box 3: Reduce the burden of usury loans

In the past, our family relied on moneylenders for financial support, borrowing 5 million VND during an emergency, which resulted in daily interest payments of 50,000 VND, nearly doubling the total repayment after three months Fortunately, we received valuable guidance from CEP officers, who provided us with a loan of 15 million VND We used 10 million VND to pay off the usury loan and invested the remaining funds into starting a small café Today, we are proud to say that we have fully repaid the loan.

Source: opinion of a poor household in Tan Phu district, focus group discussion on June 27 th 2013

Despite the rise of formal lending options, informal loans, particularly usury loans, remain prevalent among urban poor households, as highlighted by the Urban Poor Survey These loans are crucial for meeting daily needs and addressing unexpected emergencies, such as medical expenses Alarmingly, approximately 20.9% of these informal loans are classified as usury, with interest rates averaging five times higher than those of formal loans—4.3% per month compared to just 0.78% per month Additionally, the average amount borrowed through informal channels is significantly greater, with informal loans averaging 22.3 million VND, compared to 14.8 million VND for loans from financial institutions under poverty reduction programs.

Vocational training and job creation support policy

Access to vocational training support policies for poor and near-poor households is severely limited, with insufficient communication about available programs A 2013 survey revealed that 39.6% of households were aware of vocational training policies but did not benefit from them, indicating a significant gap in access despite demand In contrast, 60.4% of households knew about the policies but lacked interest, highlighting a lack of awareness regarding the role of vocational training in sustainable job creation and poverty alleviation Participation rates are alarmingly low, with only 2.7% of poor laborers and 3.0% of near-poor laborers having received vocational training The primary reason for non-participation is the perceived lack of demand, which accounted for 94.1% of poor households and 94.9% of near-poor households surveyed.

Table 31 Participation in vocational training

Poor households Near-poor households Total

Reason for not having vocational training

Don’t know the place provides training 1.6 0.65 0.89

Access to financial support for vocational training among poor and near-poor households remains severely restricted, with only 25% of poor households and 23.3% of near-poor households receiving assistance This highlights the significant impact of limited communication efforts on the beneficiaries of Poverty Reduction Programs.

Besides, low academic qualification is a barrier to poor/near-poor laborers when approaching vocational training service Many workers do not meet academic requirements to enroll in vocational training institutions

Box 4: Low academic qualification as a barrier to vocational training

My daughter has just finished second grade, and I am eager for her to receive vocational training However, the school mandates a secondary degree for admission, leaving us unable to pursue this opportunity for her at the moment.

Source: Shared by woman from Thu Duc district, group discussion on 27/6/2013

The effectiveness of the career center model remains questionable, as a survey reveals that an overwhelming majority of low-income households—97.8 percent of poor and 96.9 percent of near-poor families—secured their job information independently or through personal networks, such as friends and family In stark contrast, a mere 0.53 percent of poor workers and 0.69 percent of near-poor workers accessed job opportunities through private and public career centers.

Table 32 Access to lending policy for job creation of poor and near-poor household

Poor household Near-poor household Total percent households know the policy 70.5 59.0 61.9

Of which: percent household participated/benefited from the policy 53.6 36.9 41.8

Access to preferential credit for job creation is relatively high among poor and near-poor households, with approximately 70.5% of poor households and 59.0% of near-poor households aware of the support policy However, the actual borrowing rates are significantly lower, as only 56.6% of informed poor households and 36.9% of near-poor households have successfully accessed these funds This discrepancy can be attributed to limited funding and inadequate regulations governing the loans Notably, the State Budget has not allocated additional funds to the Job Creation Fund (Fund 71) of the Bank for Social Policy in the past three years, resulting in insufficient resources to meet the borrowing needs of these households A survey indicates that merely 0.74% of poor households and 0.87% of near-poor households have been able to secure loans from Fund 71.

The Fund aimed at supporting projects to employ poor and near-poor laborers is currently facing challenges in reaching beneficiaries Regulations require that each project create a minimum of 10 jobs, but the low salaries offered have led to a lack of interest among workers Additionally, the Fund struggles to attract small businesses due to short loan terms, which hinder operational efficiency Consequently, very few projects are benefiting from this Fund, with only two projects in Ward 6, District 11, having secured loans.

The Overseas Worker Lending Program faces challenges in reaching impoverished households due to a limited demand for loans among them This is primarily because vocational training and overseas work tuition is only funded if the laborer is selected for overseas employment, which depends on various factors like individual capability, health, and labor market conditions As a result, the high opportunity cost of not being chosen significantly restricts the borrowing interest in this program.

Many impoverished migrant households struggle to access vocational training and job creation support policies Their only resource is a career consulting center, which charges a fee of 10 percent of the first month's salary for its services.

Table 33 illustrates the effects of vocational training activities on job-related variables for laborers aged 15 to 65 since 2009 Key dependent variables analyzed include employment status, working hours, paid job availability, and average salary, alongside factors such as labor contracts and health insurance to assess job quality While the regression models indicate a positive correlation between vocational training and these job variables, the results are statistically insignificant, suggesting that the overall impact of vocational training remains unclear.

Further analyses reveal that the impact of vocational training is consistent across different demographics, including rural versus urban areas and male versus female participants However, the influence of vocational training on employment and salary varies by age, with young laborers particularly benefiting from such training, as it enhances their ability to secure paid jobs and achieve higher salaries.

Table 33 Impact of vocational training policy on the poor’s job

Dependent variables Have a job Working hours in

Logarithm of average monthly salary in

(0.0237) (132.18) (0.0506) (0.0476) (0.0520) (0.4128) Schooling year of household head 0.0007 9.20 0.0056** 0.0054*** 0.0024 0.0219

(0.0725) (405.31) (0.1551) (0.1460) (0.1595) (1.2659) Logarithm of average monthly salary in 2009

Dummy variable of ward Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

* significant level is at 10 percent; ** significant level is at 5 percent; *** significant level is at 1 percent

Qualitative research indicates that the government's policy of exempting and reducing tuition fees for poor laborers in vocational training programs significantly enhances access to these services by alleviating financial burdens Many households in group discussions expressed that without government support, they would be unable to afford vocational training for their children due to high costs relative to their income Additionally, the low academic qualifications of most poor laborers contribute to a lack of awareness regarding the importance of vocational training Financial assistance serves as a crucial motivator for these individuals to engage in training programs However, it is concerning that many households remain unaware of the Poverty Reduction Program's support policies for vocational training.

The vocational training support policy has significantly enhanced the professional qualifications of individuals from low-income backgrounds, improving their access to the labor market Participants in group discussions noted that those who have undergone vocational training tend to earn higher and more stable incomes compared to manual laborers, creating a solid foundation for sustainable poverty alleviation.

Box 5: Out of poverty thanks to vocational training support

My family consists of four members, including my husband and me, both currently unemployed due to the economic recession Occasionally, I find temporary manual work, but our family's primary support comes from my oldest child, who is working after receiving a 10 million dong tuition fee support in 2009 for vocational training in welding He now earns a monthly salary of 4.5 million dong, which has helped lift our family out of poverty.

Source: Shared by near-poor citizen from Binh Chanh District, in the group discussion on 28/6/2013 morning

An analysis of the implementation report for the Poverty Reduction Program reveals that while it initially enhanced the lives of the poor, the current impact of vocational training policies remains limited In 2010, only 8.5 percent of households managed to escape poverty, highlighting the need for more effective strategies to improve outcomes for the disadvantaged.

In 2012, vocational training helped lift 1,023 households out of poverty, accounting for 3.4% of the total 2,159 households However, the effectiveness of vocational training is hindered by a lack of alignment between training inputs and outputs, as well as limited course offerings at vocational centers Additionally, the weak connection between these centers and local enterprises, coupled with high opportunity costs and uncertain outcomes, further diminishes the impact of vocational training on poverty alleviation.

Lending programs for job creation from Fund 71, Fund 156 and Bank for Social Policy has relatively positive impact on the poor’s ability to improve their living standard

According to report of the Poverty Reduction Program in 2012, there was 30,042 out-of- poverty households, accounting for 40.5 percent of the total households out-of-poverty due to

Healthcare support policy

The health insurance card support program for low-income households has successfully expanded its reach, benefiting a larger number of individuals compared to other assistance initiatives Awareness of this policy is notably high among poor households, with 69.1% of those earning less than 8 million dong per person per year, 73.0% of poor and near-poor households earning between 8 to 12 million dong, and 72.8% of near-poor households acknowledging the program's existence.

Communication activities regarding health insurance effectively reach their target audience; however, the information provided is often insufficient While many participants in focused group discussions are aware of the health insurance card support policy and its coverage of 80 percent of medical expenses, there is a lack of understanding about the principles of health insurance and its long-term benefits Households tend to prioritize health insurance for elderly or ill family members, leading to reluctance in purchasing health insurance for the entire family, even with government support The Urban Poverty Survey (UPS-2009) reveals that a significant portion of the urban poor lacks health insurance, with 34.6 percent deeming it unnecessary and 25.9 percent showing indifference towards it.

Inefficient communication activities contribute to poor and near-poor households' lack of awareness regarding their eligibility for policy benefits A significant 66.7% of households with an annual income below 8 million VND per capita mistakenly believe they do not qualify for health insurance card support, despite being eligible under the existing policy.

100 percent of the health insurance card)

Table 34 Access to health insurance card support policy

Poor households (lower than 8 million VND)

Total percent households are aware of this policy 69.1 73.0 72.8 70.9

(4.4) (3.7) (3.4) (1.4) percent households having health insurance card 59.0 62.8 66.2 66.9

Reasons for not having support to purchase health insurance card

The access to health insurance card support for poor households remains inadequate, with only 59% of households earning less than 8 million VND per person per year having health insurance Despite a policy that offers 100% coverage for these households, only 10% received full support, while 12.3% received partial support of 50% This indicates significant shortcomings in the monitoring and distribution processes of the health insurance support program.

A 2013 survey of urban poor households revealed that only 13.7% of poor households and 5.5% of near-poor households were aware of the health insurance card support policy but did not participate due to a lack of demand for assistance The primary reason for their non-participation was unawareness of the policy, with approximately 70.3% of respondents having heard of the city's health insurance card support but not benefiting from it Additionally, only 16.3% of households reported difficulties with the procedures related to this policy.

Table 35 Type of health insurance

Poor households (lower than 8 million VND)

100 percent support for the poor 10.1 8.9 3.9 7.1

50 percent support for the poor/near-poor 12.3 11.5 9.4 10.8

Health insurance for privileged social groups 4.1 10.5 16.2 11.4

The support level for poor and near-poor households with an annual income of 8-16 million VND per capita is only 50 percent, limiting their access to essential policies Many households struggle to pay the remaining health insurance costs, which can amount to approximately 1 million VND for a family of four, a significant burden relative to their total income Consequently, these families often prioritize health insurance for older or sick members In 2012, voluntary health insurance coverage for poor households earning between 8 to 12 million VND was only 40 percent, while the coverage for near-poor households in Ho Chi Minh City dropped to just 9 percent in the first five months of 2013.

Ho Chi Minh City has introduced a new support policy that provides 15 percent coverage of health care costs for low-income individuals This initiative, outlined in Decision No 36/2012/QD-UBND, aims to offer additional assistance to the poor and near-poor from 2012 to 2015 The Health Care Fund for the Poor will specifically support 15 percent of medical expenses for patients enrolled in the health insurance program, BHYT.

Chronic renal failure treatment through dialysis in CN has been enhanced by Decision No 36, which provides financial support for the city's impoverished population to improve their access to healthcare services However, awareness of this policy is significantly lower than that of the health insurance card policy, with only 20 percent of participants in group discussions being informed about it This lack of awareness may be attributed to the policy's relative novelty and the inadequate communication channels used to reach poor households at the local level This was further evidenced by members of the Steering Committee for Poverty Reduction in three districts of Ho Chi Minh, who only referenced the health insurance card support policy when questioned about the city's healthcare support initiatives.

Numerous studies have examined the effects of health insurance in Vietnam Research by Wagstaff and Pradhan (2005) utilized data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) from 1993 to 1998, employing a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching, and found that health insurance significantly enhances access to healthcare for the poor Additionally, Sepehri et al (2006) and Wagstaff (2009) indicated that health insurance reduces treatment costs for the insured More recently, Nguyen (2012) analyzed VHLSS data from 2004 to 2006, concluding that voluntary health insurance increases the frequency of both outpatient and inpatient visits among those insured.

This report presents an impact assessment of health insurance policies on poor and near-poor households in Ho Chi Minh City, highlighting a significant gap in previous assessments at the provincial level Due to the complexities of data collection regarding healthcare expenses, the 2013 Urban Poor households survey primarily focused on individual healthcare visit frequency The study specifically examines how possessing a health insurance card influences the frequency of visits to health centers for injuries or health issues The quantitative findings indicate that health insurance significantly enhances access to healthcare services for the poor, as individuals with health insurance tend to visit healthcare centers more frequently when facing health problems or injuries compared to those without insurance.

Impact assessments of health insurance reveal no significant differences between urban and rural areas or between males and females However, the utilization of health insurance increases with age, indicating that older individuals tend to use their health insurance cards more frequently.

Table 36 Impact of the health care support policy

Explanatory variables Often visit health centers when being sick/injured

Occasionally visit health centers when being sick/injured

Health insurance for the poor 0,1645*** 0,1004***

School year of household head 0,0028** -0,0038**

Dummy variable of ward Yes Yes

* Significant level is at 10 percent; ** significant level is at 5 percent; *** significant level is at 1 percent Source: Results from Ho Chi Minh Urban Poverty Survey 2013

Group discussions with policy beneficiaries indicate that health insurance significantly benefits the lives of the poor Key advantages include a reduction in out-of-pocket expenses, enhanced access to healthcare services, and positive changes in the healthcare habits of low-income individuals.

Health insurance and support policy of 15 percent health care expenses help minimize out-of-pocket money spending for health care of the poor According to Vice Director of Ho

The Chi Minh City Social Insurance Agency highlights that high healthcare expenses are causing many households to revert to poverty Fortunately, two supportive policies ensure that impoverished families are only responsible for 5 percent of their medical costs This assistance is particularly crucial for households with members suffering from chronic illnesses or requiring expensive treatments, such as dialysis.

Box 6: Reducing burden of medical treatment expenses using health insurance card

In the first quarter of 2013, the Ho Chi Minh City Social Insurance Agency disbursed 3.8 million dong to cover the medical expenses of 50 patients with the highest costs Each patient received an average support of 28 million dong, which is significantly higher than the average income of impoverished residents in Ho Chi Minh City, equating to two to three times their earnings.

Source: In-depth interview with Vice Director of Ho Chi Minh City Social Insurance Agency, on 12/7/2013 morning

Ho Chi Minh City's healthcare support policies significantly enhance access to medical services for low-income individuals, reducing the risks associated with self-treatment at home Prior to receiving health insurance and assistance with 15% of healthcare costs, many households resorted to self-medication, often purchasing medications from pharmacies without prescriptions or relying on traditional folk remedies Such informal treatments can sometimes exacerbate health issues, potentially leading to chronic conditions or even fatalities.

Education support policy

Access to education support policies for low-income households remains limited, despite awareness from participants in group discussions A survey of 1,002 poor and near-poor households reveals that communication about these policies is ineffective, with many beneficiaries either unaware of the policies or uncertain of their eligibility Specifically, only 66.9% of poor households and 56.2% of near-poor households are informed about tuition fee reductions and exemptions Furthermore, 54.3% of poor households believe they are not beneficiaries of these educational support policies.

Table 37 Access to reduction and exemption of tuition fees policy

Poor households Near-poor households Total percent households are aware of this policy 66.9 56.2 59.0

(3.0) (1.8) (1.6) percent students have their tuition fees reduced/exempted 29.3 19.3 21.9

Reason for not benefiting from this policy

Small amount of money supported 6.5 2.9 3.7

Average student support in cash (thousand dong) 900 503 645

Source: Result from Urban poor households survey 2013

In 2013, a study on urban poor households revealed that a significant number of families perceive themselves as non-beneficiaries of vocational training policies, leading to limited access Specifically, 78.3% of households were aware of the vocational training policy but did not participate or benefit from it, despite expressing a demand for such training Furthermore, 76.3% of these households fail to recognize themselves as eligible beneficiaries of the policy, highlighting a critical gap in awareness and access.

Participants in group discussions identified complicated procedures and limited support as key reasons why many households opt out of tuition fee reduction policies Consequently, only 29.3% of low-income students in the city received reduced or exempted tuition fees, despite the policy stipulating that all poor students should qualify On average, poor students receive 900,000 dong per year in cash assistance, while near-poor students receive 504,000 dong annually.

The Student Loan Program, offered by VBSP, stands out as a significant initiative aimed at supporting poor and near-poor households in funding education and vocational training Recent surveys reveal that 8.5% of poor households and 5.1% of near-poor households have utilized this program, with average loan amounts of 14.1 million VND for the poor and 13.9 million VND for the near-poor While participants from poor households report no challenges in accessing the program, near-poor households remain unaware of its availability, mistakenly believing it does not cater to their needs This highlights a gap in communication efforts, as many do not realize that the program also assists students facing financial hardships due to accidents, illness, or natural disasters during their educational pursuits.

The Scholarship Fund of the Ho Chi Minh City Association for Promoting Education plays a crucial role in supporting families with non-tuition education costs, primarily funded by donations from individuals, firms, and organizations According to the Vice President of the Association, scholarships are awarded based on a specific list of students provided by the local government, which has limited access for potential beneficiaries; currently, only about 70 percent of distinct students have been reached Additionally, the inadequate benefits package has led many local officials to seek employment elsewhere, resulting in a high turnover rate among the labor force involved in poverty reduction programs This instability poses challenges for the Fund in effectively identifying and assisting its intended beneficiaries.

Migrant poor individuals lack access to educational support policies, primarily due to their unawareness of available programs and their exclusion from benefits Tuition fee reductions and student loan programs are only available to households with a poor household ID, which many migrants do not possess due to local management challenges Consequently, they are ineligible for these financial aids Furthermore, the Scholarship Fund of the Ho Chi Minh Association for Promoting Education does not extend support to migrant students, as scholarships are allocated based on a specific student list provided by local governments Unfortunately, due to migration management issues, students from migrant households are frequently omitted from these lists, leaving them without essential educational resources.

Research on the impact of tuition fee reduction and exemption policies in Vietnam indicates positive outcomes Shaffer (2004) analyzed data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) 2002, revealing beneficial effects of the Poverty Reduction Program’s tuition fee policies More recently, Bui et al (2013) utilized panel data from the VHLSS 2006 to further explore this topic.

The evaluation of the policy implemented in 2008 reveals that it does not affect the schooling of the Kinh group; however, it significantly boosts the enrollment rates among young individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds.

Despite the lack of quantitative research on the impact of the Ho Chi Minh Poverty Reduction Program's education support policy, this report employs a regression model to evaluate its effects on students' learning outcomes based on tuition fee reductions and exemptions The results, as shown in Table 38, indicate that since 2009, those benefiting from this policy have a direct correlation with the schooling period of individuals aged 6 to 23 However, it is important to note that the analysis cannot measure the impact on enrollment rates due to an inverse correlation; only currently enrolled students receive tuition fee support, while drop-out students do not benefit from this policy Consequently, all students who receive tuition fee reductions or exemptions are guaranteed to remain in school.

Two samples were used: currently enrolled students and dropped-out students since

In 2009, a study revealed that students who received tuition fee support completed, on average, 0.2 more years of schooling compared to those who did not, with statistical significance at the 10% and 5% levels The high R-squared value observed in the analysis can be attributed to the control of the age variable, which is closely linked to the number of completed schooling years.

Table 38 Impact of education support policy

Number of completed schooling year (current enrolled or drop-out students since

Number of completed schooling year (current enrolled students)

Number of completed schooling year (drop-out students since

Number of completed secondary schooling year (current enrolled students)

Tuition fee reduction or exemption 0.209* 0.243**

(0.11) (0.11) Preferential credit for education or vocational training 0.19 0.14

Number of completed schooling year (current enrolled or drop-out students since

Number of completed schooling year (current enrolled students)

Number of completed schooling year (drop-out students since

Number of completed secondary schooling year (current enrolled students)

School year of household head 0.01 (0.01) 0.00 (0.01)

Dummy variable of ward Yes Yes Yes Yes

Group discussions reveal that reducing or exempting tuition fees significantly encourages school enrollment among low-income students, particularly in households with currently enrolled children While the financial support from this policy may be modest, it still provides crucial assistance to families in managing their educational expenses.

Despite the existing support for education, it falls short in addressing educational inequality, as tuition fees represent only a minor portion of overall household education expenses Significant non-tuition costs, such as uniforms, textbooks, and additional school contributions, create a considerable financial burden for low-income families These expenses pose a significant obstacle for households with multiple school-aged children, making it challenging for them to afford education.

Box 7: High non-tuition costs

My child is currently in 9th grade, and while her tuition fees are exempted, we still face significant expenses We pay 180,000 VND for her extra school fees and 160,000 VND for textbooks at the start of the year Additional costs include tuition for extra classes, foreign language courses, and uniform purchases The annual tuition fee support amounts to only 200,000 VND, which barely covers one month of non-tuition expenses for her education My family is currently experiencing financial difficulties.

I do not know whether we can afford for her to continue high school

Source: Shared by a poor citizen from Thu Duc district, group discussion on 28/06/2012

Qualitative results indicate that the impact of education support policies is notably strong at the primary school level, but this influence diminishes as one progresses to higher education This trend can be attributed to the increasing non-tuition costs, particularly for extracurricular classes, associated with higher education.

The regression analysis indicates that the education support policy has a uniform impact across urban and rural areas, with no significant differences observed However, the effectiveness of the policy diminishes for older students, aligning with qualitative findings that suggest a reduced impact at higher education levels Additionally, the results reveal that female students benefit more from the policy compared to their male counterparts.

Housing support policy

The Urban Poor Survey (UPS-2009) highlights that inadequate housing quality and space ranks among the top three deprivations faced by impoverished households in Ho Chi Minh City To address these challenges, the Poverty Reduction Program has initiated three schemes aimed at improving living conditions for the poor However, access to these housing support programs remains limited for low-income families, largely due to insufficient communication efforts regarding available assistance Most participants in discussions are only aware of two initiatives: the charity house building and repair program, and the housing loan program Additionally, while the resettlement program is significant, it targets specific areas, leaving households in other regions largely uninformed about its benefits.

The housing loan program for low-income families is primarily funded by two sources: Program 316 of the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP) and the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund, as outlined in Decision No 140/2006/QD-UBND by the Ho Chi Minh People’s Council While the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund provides support to both poor and near-poor households with lower interest rates, Program 316 is exclusively for the poor Consequently, many low-income families prefer the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction Fund for housing loans However, awareness of this program remains low, with only 48.4% of poor households and just 36.1% of near-poor households informed about the available housing loan options.

Table 39 Access to housing loan program

Poor households Near-poor households Total percent household know about the program 48,4 36,1 39,2

(3,2) (1,8) (1,6) percent household participate/benefit from the program 23,0 15,8 18,0

Reason for not benefiting from the program

Communication efforts have been inadequate, resulting in low coverage and insufficient information for poor and near-poor households Many of these households have a demand for borrowing but are unaware that they qualify as program beneficiaries Notably, a significant disparity exists, with 80.4 percent of near-poor households believing they do not benefit from the program, compared to only 57.4 percent of poor households This indicates that current communication activities primarily target poor households, neglecting the needs of near-poor households.

Access to preferential housing credit remains limited, with only 23% of poor households and 15.8% of near-poor households aware of the housing loan program actually utilizing it This translates to just 11.1% of surveyed poor households and 5.7% of near-poor households benefiting from the loans Additionally, 10.7% of poor households and 14.3% of near-poor households who participated in the program expressed dissatisfaction due to the loans being significantly lower than their needs for house repairs.

Local officials remain hesitant to provide loans to low-income individuals due to concerns about potentially lower repayment rates Additionally, the short loan terms for housing loans, typically ranging from 12 months, further complicate the lending process.

36 months, make it difficult for households to pay-off the debt Legal barriers also confined the poor/near-poor’s access to credit

Box 8: Difficulties in borrowing due to regulations in Construction Law for Urban housing

Despite the high demand for house repairs, there are currently no loans available in our area due to regulations requiring poor households to possess a land use right certificate to qualify for such assistance Unfortunately, most low-income families lack this essential certificate for the land they occupy.

Source: Steering Committee at Ward 6, District 11

The charity house building and repair program aims to support the poorest households in Ho Chi Minh City, with construction approved by the local People’s Committee This initiative relies primarily on off-budget funding from individual and corporate donations within the community The program's ability to assist the poor is largely dependent on the mobilization of the Fund for the Poor, managed by the Fatherland Front Committee, which typically raises only several hundred billion VND annually Consequently, despite the Fund's crucial role in facilitating housing improvements for the impoverished, the financial resources available are insufficient to meet the significant demand for enhanced living conditions.

Survey results indicate that the support for near-poor households from the Program is significantly low, with only 3 out of 36 households receiving assistance Additionally, near-poor households represent just 13.6 percent of those borrowing from the Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction initiative The lack of access to housing support programs has hindered improvements in their housing conditions In-depth interviews reveal that near-poor households face considerable challenges in accessing housing support policies.

Migrant individuals living in poverty face significant barriers in accessing local housing support programs, primarily due to their lack of a poor ID, which is a requirement for receiving housing loan assistance Additionally, legal obstacles such as the absence of collateral assets and land use right certificates further hinder their ability to benefit from these essential housing support services.

In evaluating the impact of housing support policies, we employ regression discontinuity methodology, focusing on dependent variables that assess housing conditions such as living area, roof characteristics, solid walls, access to tap water, and septic tank availability The program variable indicates whether a household has received assistance for home or toilet repairs since 2009 Additionally, we include control variables that account for demographic characteristics and a dummy variable for ward fixed effects, although the specific regression coefficients for wards will not be presented in the results.

Table 40 reveals that the regression analysis of housing condition variables in relation to program support shows positive coefficients; however, these results lack statistical significance This indicates that housing support policies have not yet demonstrated a clear impact on housing conditions The limited level and coverage of support may explain the unclear and insufficiently measurable effects observed.

Table 40 Impact of housing support policy

Logarithm of average living area per capita (m2)

Having roof and solid wall

Having tap water Having septic tank

Logarithm of average living area per capita (m2)

Having roof and solid wall

Having tap water Having septic tank

Schooling year of household head 0.021*** 0.012*** 0.002 0.004*

Dummy variable of ward Yes Yes Yes Yes

While the overall impact of housing support policy may not be statistically significant, its effects can vary across different household groups To examine the differing impacts of housing support policies in urban versus rural areas and among households with varying qualification levels, we incorporated interaction variables between the program and these demographic factors The findings are detailed in Table 52.

The analysis reveals that interactive variables are statistically insignificant, indicating that the effects of housing support policies are uniform across both urban and rural households, as well as among households with varying qualification levels.

The housing support program currently struggles to assist near-poor and migrant poor populations in enhancing their living conditions due to limited access to housing support policies Nevertheless, in-depth interviews with affected households reveal that the program has had a positive impact on improving the living conditions of those in need.

The charity house building and repair program by the Fatherland Front Committee, despite its limited outreach, plays a crucial role in enhancing the living conditions of impoverished households In-depth interviews with the Steering Committee across three districts reveal that the program primarily benefits underprivileged social groups and extremely poor families lacking labor for income-generating activities, leaving them with little chance to escape poverty Without support from this program, these households would be unable to improve their housing and living situations Furthermore, assistance from the program has indirectly increased their access to other social security services Participants in group discussions noted that savings from not having to pay for house repairs were redirected towards their children's education costs.

CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Tiêu đề	Impact Assessment of Poverty Reduction Programs of Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam
Tác giả	Do, Thu Trang, Le, Hai Chau, Nguyen, Viet Cuong, Nguyen, Hong Thuy, Phung, Thanh Thu, Phung, Duc Tung
Người hướng dẫn	Ms. Nguyen Bui Linh (UNDP)
Trường học	Mekong Development Research Institute
Thể loại	mpra paper
Năm xuất bản	2013
Thành phố	Ho Chi Minh City

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