This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. 6 Jump down to document Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND-Initiated Research View document details This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. Limited Electronic Distribution Rights For More Information CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND-INITIATED RESEARCH Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution Support RAND This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Dissuading Terror Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism Kim Cragin • Scott Gerwehr Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cragin, Kim. Dissuading terror : strategic influence and the struggle against terrorism / Kim Cragin, Scott Gerwehr. p. cm. “MG-184.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3704-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism. 2. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 3. United States—Strategic aspects. 4. United States—Foreign relations. 5. United States—Influence. I. Gerwehr, Scott, 1968– II. Title. HV6431.C724 2005 363.32'0973—dc22 2004024269 Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth The research described in this report was supported through the provisions of independent research and development in RAND's contracts for the operation of Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers: RAND Project AIR FORCE (sponsored by the U.S. Air Force), the RAND Arroyo Center (sponsored by the U.S. Army), and the RAND National Defense Research Institute (sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies). iii Preface Strategic influence policy—the use of public diplomacy and other information campaigns to promote national security—has come under increased scrutiny since the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. This scrutiny is due, in part, to new demands in the war on terrorism: The arrest or death of existing terrorists will be only a short-term success if al Qaeda contin- ues to recruit, indoctrinate, and train new members successfully. The U.S. government must therefore determine how it can dissuade new recruits from joining al Qaeda as well as discourage individuals from providing the terrorist organization financial and other support. This research effort was designed to inform U.S. government decisionmakers about the role that strategic influence policy could play in the struggle against terrorism. It continues a tradition at the RAND Corporation of multidisciplinary research, drawing on aca- demic fields such as social and cognitive psychology as well as terror- ism studies. In the months immediately following the September 11 attacks, RAND undertook several research projects relating to counter- terrorism and homeland security topics as elements of its continuing program of self-sponsored research. This report is the result of one of those projects. The work was supported through the provisions for independent research and development in RAND’s contracts for the operation of Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers: RAND Project AIR FORCE (sponsored by the U.S. Air Force), the RAND Arroyo Center (sponsored by the U.S. iv Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism Army), and the RAND National Defense Research Institute (sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies). James Chow, Assistant to RAND’s President for Research on Counterterrorism, provided overall supervision for this research. Comments on this study are welcomed and should be directed to either the two authors or Dr. Chow. v Contents Preface iii Figures vii Summary ix Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 Animosity Toward the United States 2 Support for Radical Islam 3 Violence as a Means of Political Activism 5 Scope and Methodology 7 Report Structure 10 CHAPTER TWO The Theoretical Underpinnings of Strategic Influence 13 The Psychological Objectives of Persuasion 14 Compliance 15 Conformity 17 Conversion 19 Observations 20 The Necessary Sequence of Events and Timing 21 Observations 24 Key Judgments 25 vi Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism CHAPTER THREE Theory into Practice: What Influence Can Hope to Achieve 27 Instruments and Methods of Influence 27 Germany, Post–World War II 28 Vietnam, 1963–1972 30 Eastern Europe, 1980s Polish Underground 32 Alternative Methods of Influence 33 Performance Measures 35 The Dangers of Failure 37 Key Judgments 38 CHAPTER FOUR Potential Audiences in the Muslim World 41 Yemen 41 Germany 47 Indonesia 52 Key Judgments 58 CHAPTER FIVE Implications for the Struggle Against Terrorism 61 Guiding Principles 62 Translating the Principles into Policy 63 Multiple al Qaeda–Affiliated Groups in Societies Hostile to Outsiders 63 Isolated al Qaeda Cells in Western Societies 65 Multiple Terrorist Groups with an Indigenous Countermovement 65 Potential Risks and Mitigating Strategies 66 CHAPER SIX New Challenges Ahead 69 APPENDIX A. The Military Perspective on Strategic Influence 73 B. Strategic Influence in Action: Advertising and Marketing 81 Bibliography 85 vii Figures 2.1. The Spectrum of Psychological Objectives 15 2.2. Sequence of Events in Persuasive Communication 22 4.1. Potential Sources of Animosity 59 [...]... all three lays 1 For more information on these issues as they relate to U.S counterterrorism policy, see Executive Office of the President, “U.S Counterterrorism Strategy,” White House publication, February 2003 1 2 Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism the foundation for terrorism against the United States, as typified by al Qaeda Animosity Toward the United... in the struggle against terrorism 13 Bruce 14 See 15 Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, New York: Colombia University Press, 1998, p 44 Bard O’Neill, Terrorism and Insurgency, Washington, D.C.: Brassey’s, 1998 For more information on al Qaeda, see Anonymous, Through Our Enemy’s Eyes, Washington, D.C.: Brassey’s, 2002 6 Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism ian cause, and... Geraldine Petty, A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, R-3151, 1985 4 Ian O Lesser, Bruce Hoffman, John Arquilla, David F Ronfeldt, and Michele Zanini, Countering the New Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-989-AF, 1999 xiv Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism indigenous, nonviolent movement, for... struggle against terrorism have raised new challenges The U.S government must now consider how it can prevent terrorists from attacking the United States, discourage sympathizers from supporting terrorist adversaries, and reduce the number of potential new recruits for terrorist groups This report examines the potential uses and limitations of influence campaigns in the struggle against terrorism, particularly... society—is unlikely in today’s information age Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism While theory and past experience indicate that strategic influence could aid the struggle against terrorism, its sensitivity to operational xii Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism environments makes the outcome of influence campaigns in the Muslim world uncertain... specifically with regard to al Qaeda and the struggle against terrorism? From our analysis of these case studies, we arrived at three key types of audiences in the struggle against terrorism: terrorists who attack the United States, radical institutions that nurture the terrorists, and sympathetic communities that harbor and support the terrorists Within each of these categories, we conclude that a... operations could contribute to the success of U.S counterterrorism efforts Lessons learned from past U.S influence operations, however, temper this optimism Specifically, we draw lessons from three influence campaigns conducted by the U.S government over the past 50 years: ix x Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism • In post–World War II Germany, General McClure... study by Bonnie Cordes et al in 1985 titled A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups3 or Ian Lesser et al.’s Countering the New Terrorism4 in 1999 Yet no one has discovered a “silver bullet” to remove the threat of terrorism It is also difficult to imagine that strategic influence could be the solution Like terrorism, RAND analysts have long evaluated the potential strengths and weaknesses... especially as it interacts with animosity toward the United States and radical Islam Specifically, we focus on terrorism In Inside Terrorism, Bruce Hoffman states: Terrorism is specifically designed to have far-reaching psychological effects beyond the immediate victim(s) or object of the terrorist attack It is meant to instill fear within, and thereby intimidate, a wider “target audience” that might... violence, terrorists seek to obtain the leverage, influence and power they otherwise lack to effect political change on either a local or an international scale.13 In contrast to insurgents or guerrilla organizations, terrorists do not use violence to confront state control over people and territory The purpose of a terrorist campaign is, therefore, not as much control as it is fear As a result, terrorist . the New Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-989-AF, 1999. xiv Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism indigenous,. Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cragin, Kim. Dissuading terror : strategic influence and the struggle against terrorism / Kim Cragin, Scott Gerwehr. p.