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Reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope; present discus - sions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research profes - sionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for re - search quality and objectivity. Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments Appendices EDWARD GONZALEZ, KEVIN F. McCARTHY TR-131-RC May 2004 Prepared for the National Defense Research Institute Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gonzalez, Edward. Cuba after Castro : legacies, challenges, and impediments. Appendices / Edward Gonzalez, Kevin F. McCarthy. p. cm. “TR-131.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3573-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Cuba—Politics and government—1959– 2. Castro, Fidel, 1926– 3. Cuba—Social conditions. 4. Cuba— Economic conditions. 5. Social prediction—Cuba. 6. Economic forecasting—Cuba. 7. Cuba—Forecasting. I. McCarthy, Kevin F., 1945– II.Title. F1788.G58823 2004b 972.9106'4—dc22 2004004377 This research in the public interest was supported by the RAND Corporation, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense. - iii - PREFACE This report and the five studies it comprises serve as a companion volume to the RAND Corporation report by Edward Gonzalez and Kevin F. McCarthy, Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments (MG- 111-RC, 2004), which integrates and synthesizes the main findings of these five studies. Although this report is issued as a separate volume, it is meant to accompany and support the initial report with more detailed analyses of the political, social, demographic, and economic problems that confront Cuba today and that are certain to continue to tax the capacity of any government that comes to power in the post- Castro era. In Appendix A of this report, Edward Gonzalez, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at UCLA and a member of the adjunct staff at RAND, examines the impact that the legacies of caudilloism and totalitarianism are likely to have on a future Cuba. In Appendix B, Damian J. Fernández, Professor of International Relations at Florida International University, discusses the growing alienation of Cuban youth and its implications for the island’s political future. In Appendix C, Kevin F. McCarthy, Senior Social Scientist at RAND, investigates Cuba’s demographic trends, characterized by an aging population and a shrinking work-age population, and the difficult public policy choices that will confront any new government in Cuba as a result of those trends. In Appendix D, Jorge F. Pérez-López, a labor economist who has written extensively on the Cuban economy, analyzes the impediments that Castro’s socialist economy will pose to future efforts by a successor government to restructure and revitalize the island’s economy. Finally, in Appendix E, Pérez-López narrows his focus to Cuba’s troubled sugar industry. This report should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and analysts concerned with Cuba, members of Congress, and a wider audience outside the U.S. government. - iv - This report and the initial Cuba After Castro volume build on a long tradition of RAND research on Cuba. Among the most relevant studies are the following: • Edward Gonzalez and David F. Ronfeldt, Cuba Adrift in a Postcommunist World , R-4231-USDP, 1992 • Edward Gonzalez and David F. Ronfeldt, Storm Warnings for Cuba , MR-452-OSD, 1994 • Edward Gonzalez, Cuba: Clearing Perilous Waters? MR-673-OSD, 1996. This report results from RAND’s continuing program of self- sponsored independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provision of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. This research was overseen by the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), a division of the RAND Corporation. NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. intelligence community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. - v - THE RAND CORPORATION QUALITY ASSURANCE PROCESS Peer review is an integral part of all RAND research projects. Prior to publication, this document, as with all documents in the RAND technical report series, was subject to a quality assurance process to ensure that the research meets several standards, including the following: The problem is well formulated; the research approach is well designed and well executed; the data and assumptions are sound; the findings are useful and advance knowledge; the implications and recommendations fol- low logically from the findings and are explained thoroughly; the documentation is accurate, understandable, cogent, and temperate in tone; the research demonstrates understanding of related previous stud- ies; and the research is relevant, objective, independent, and balanced. Peer review is conducted by research professionals who were not members of the project team. RAND routinely reviews and refines its quality assurance process and also conducts periodic external and internal reviews of the quality of its body of work. For additional details regarding the RAND quality assurance process, visit http://www.rand.org/standards/. - vii - CONTENTS Preface iii Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Appendix A THE LEGACIES OF FIDELISMO AND TOTALITARIANISM Edward Gonzalez 1 Fidelismo: A New Variation on Caudilloism 2 From Totalitarianism to Post-Totalitarianism 12 Cuba’s Totalitarian Order 13 The Mutation to Post-Totalitarianism 15 The Regime’s Staying Power 23 The Legacies of Caudilloism and Totalitarianism 26 Totalitarianism/Post-Totalitarianism’s Imprint on Society 35 Conclusion: From a Strong State to a Failed State? 51 Bibliography 55 Appendix B THE POLITICS OF YOUTH IN CUBA: PATTERNS, DYNAMICS, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES Damian J. Fernández 61 Introduction 61 The Cuban Youth: A Demographic, Social, and Political Profile 65 Socialization and Desocialization Among the Young 80 Challenges to Socialization and Governance: Present and Future 92 Future Challenges 94 Conclusion 100 Bibliography 102 Appendix C CUBA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS Kevin F. McCarthy 105 Background 105 Purpose and Outline 106 Cuba and the Demographic Transition 107 - viii - The Implications of Slow Growth for Cuba’s Age Structure 114 The Economic Implications of Changes in the Age Structure 117 Bibliography 131 Appendix D THE LEGACIES OF SOCIALISM: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CUBAN TRANSITION Jorge F. Pérez-López 133 Socialist Institutions 135 The Legacies of Cuban Socialism 139 Concluding Remarks 163 Bibliography 165 Appendix E THE CUBAN SUGAR INDUSTRY AFTER THE TRANSITION Jorge F. Pérez-López 167 The State of Cuba’s Sugar Industry 170 The International Environment 180 Restructuring the Cuban Sugar Industry 187 Concluding Remarks 201 Bibliography 205 [...]... to synthesize the essence of Cuba s unique political system before turning to how the legacy of the past and present is likely to affect Cuba s future, particularly with respect to thwarting the island’s democratic transition Of course, predicting which path a post -Castro Cuba will take is a largely speculative exercise, and a risky one This appendix to the Cuba After Castro report (Gonzalez and McCarthy,... Castro s Cuba has experienced both caudillismo which we call fidelismo in the Cuban context and totalitarianism Unlike authoritarianism, the totalitarian state is ideologically driven, mobilizes the support of the masses, and extends its reach over the economy and society in a far more inclusive, penetrating, and controlling manner Within less than a year after Fidel Castro came to power in 1959, Cuba. .. Biscet was rearrested after his release from prison in November 2002 for having called upon Cuban sympathizers and democratic governments to rid the island of Castro Elizardo Sánchez, head of the Cuban Committee for Human Rights and National Reconciliation in Havana, calls Cuba s policy of political repression under post-totalitarianism one of “low-profile or lowintensity repression.” Cuba s new dependence... TABLES C.1 Population Growth in Cuba: 1827 to 2015 .109 C.2 Comparison of Cuba' s Population Growth with Selected Areas: 1950 to 2025, Percentage Change by Period 111 C.3 Comparison of Birth, Death, and Natural Increase Rates for Cuba and Selected Areas, 1998 112 C.4 Comparison of Fertility Structure for Cuba and Selected Areas: 1998 and 2025 .113 C.5 Comparison of Cuba' s Age Structure with That... affairs––courting the Non-Aligned Movement, directing Cuba s armed incursions into Africa, and backing Marxist revolutionary movements in Central America However, two facets of Castro s rule remained unchanged: Castro continued to fuel Cuba s confrontation with Washington, and he refused to tolerate opposition to his policies In continuing to fuel confrontation with Washington, Castro found or manufactured one pretext... uniquely Cuban—the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution The CDRs were established on virtually every neighborhood block starting in 1960 and augmented by other mass organizations such as the Confederation of Cuban Workers and the Federation of Cuban Women, which enlisted workers and women After 1965, Communist Party cadres led, guided, and monitored these organs and society at large The Cuban... mutated into the post-totalitarian order that characterizes present-day Cuba Experiencing both caudilloism and totalitarianism/posttotalitarianism has been a dubious distinction that has not only left a profound imprint on contemporary Cuba, but is also virtually certain to saddle Cuba with divisive and destructive legacies after Fidel Castro 1 The caudillo’s followers are attracted to him because... free elections All but two representatives of the 50-member bipartisan House Cuba Working Group voted for the resolution For an analysis of the effect of Castro s move on U.S. Cuba policy, see “Embargo Update: Congress Reacts to Castro s Crack-Down: The Charm Offensive Is Over, But What Course to Expect in U.S Policy?” (2003) 37 Cuba s Ministry of Economy and Planning reported that GNP grew at rate of... to serve as major impediments to Cuba s economic and democratic transformation after Castro departs the scene It concludes by offering caveats on the island’s rather dismal prospects under alternative scenarios FIDELISMO: A NEW VARIATION ON CAUDILLOISM Although his primary objective has always been to maximize his personal power, as is true of all caudillos, Fidel Castro has been no ordinary Latin... exacerbate––the hostile relationship Thus, after four rounds of secret talks with the new Ford administration during 1974–1975, Fidel Castro dashed any possibility of normalizing relations by dispatching Cuban combat troops to Angola in summer 1975 Later, negotiations with the Carter administration led to the opening of Interests Sections in Washington and Havana by Cuba and the United - 9 - States in September . paper) 1. Cuba Politics and government—1959– 2. Castro, Fidel, 1926– 3. Cuba Social conditions. 4. Cuba Economic conditions. 5. Social prediction Cuba. 6 predicting which path a post -Castro Cuba will take is a largely speculative exercise, and a risky one. This appendix to the Cuba After Castro report (Gonzalez