Nghien CUu v6 thuac do pha.t tri~n thl chinh cila David Hauner (2006). Tac gia xem xet m6i quan h¢ chinh sach tai kh6a va phat tri~n tai chinh vm ba thu6c do phat
tri~n thl chinh cho 73 nu6c trong giai dol;lfi 2001 - 2003:
•
20
LIQUID: ti 1¢ giua nq thanh khoan v6i GDP. Nq thanh khoan (Liquid liabilities) Ia thuac do khai quat ciia cung tien (M3) bao g6m, tien m~t, tai khoan ngan hang va tai khoan a cac t6 chuc tai chinh phi ngan hang. Khi s6 1i¢u M3 kh6ng c6 san thi tac gia sirã d1,mg thuac do M2 hyp hon trong d6 kh6ng tinh den tai khoan tien gbi ngoc;ti t¢ c6 ky hc;tn, c6 phfin trong cac quy dAu tu va thuong phieu (nq doanh nghi¢p ngan hc;tn).
BANK: ty 1¢ t6ng tin dl)ng n¢i d!a tren GDP
PRIVATE: ti 1¢ cac khoan tin dl)ng cho khu V1Jc tu nhan trong t6ng tin dl)ng n¢i dia tren GDP, do 1uemg phc;tm vi tin dl)ng duqc chuyen den khu V1Jc tu nhan.
cac bang chting duqc kiem nghi¢m cho th~y phat trien thl chinh, duqc do bang cac chi s6 nhu: ty 1¢ ciia cac khoan nq c6 tinh thanh khoan tren GDP (LIQUID), tY 1¢ tin dl)ng ngan hang tren GDP (BANK) c6 anh huang cung chieu den phat trien thl chinh.
160
120
80
0~~--.--.--.--.--.--.--.-.--.--.-~---~
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 - - INDONESIA - - PHILIPINE --MALAYSIA
--CHINA --THAILAND --VIETNAM
lfinh 4.3: LIQUID (phrut tram cua cung ti~n (M2) tr~n GDP)
"Ngu6n: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific. (2012), Asian Development Bank (ADB) v&:i Sl! tfnh toan cua h<;>c vi~n thl;Ic hi¢n lu~ van" [8]
I
• I
I
~ I
I I I
I
22
160 140 120 100 80 60 40
0+-~~--~~~--~~~--~~~--~~~~
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 --INDONESIA - - PHILIPINE --MALAYSIA
--CHINA --THAILAND VIElNAM
IDnh 4.4: BANK (phlin tram t6ng tin dl;lng n<?i dja tren GDP)
"Ngu6n: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific. (2012), Asian Development Bank (ADB) vm Sl;f tinh toan cua hQc vien thl;lc hi¢n lu~n van" [8]
160
120
80
40
04-~--~~--~~--~----.--.--.--.--.--.--.-~
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 - - - INDONESIA - - PHILIPINE ---MALAYSIA - - CHINA --THAILAND --VIETNAM
H'mh 4.5: PRIVATE (philn tram t6ng tin dl;lng n~i dja khu vvc tu nhan tren GDP)
"Ngu6n: Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific. (2012), Asian Development Bank (ADB) vm SlJ tinh toan cua hQC vien thl;TC hi~n lu~ van" [8]
Sii dl;lng chi s6 tin dl;lng tu nhan /GDP d~ so sanh v~ phat tri~n tru chinh cua Vi~t
Nam, c6 th~ thfiy thj truemg tru chinh cua Vi~t Nam da duqc cai thi~n nhanh chong, tir 8,85% nam 1996; len 35% GDP nam 2000; 90%GDP nam 2008 va 125% nam 2010. Nam 2011 c6 SlJ Sl;lt giam 13,35% so vm nam 2010. D6i vm 2 chi tieu con l<;ri la M2/GDP va t6ng tin dl;lng n~i dja I GDP cling c6 xu huang tang tuoog duoog vm tin dl;lng tu nhan /GDP.
•
•
24
4.2 Nghien cou thl!c nghi~m:
Mo hinh theo nghien cou ciia David Hauner (2006) Fiscial Policy And Financial Development
Theo David Hauner 2006, lu~ van sl.r dt;~ng 2 bien dQc l~p de chi tfn d~ng cong trong mo hinh Ut:
./ PUBY: Ph~n tram tfn d~ng cong trong nuac tren GDP .
./ PUBLIC: Ph~n tran tin dt.mg cong trong nuoc tren t6ng tfn dt,mg n<)i d!a.
H6i quy da bien lm lugt cho tlrn.g mo hlnh vm tlrn.g gia thiet.
4.2.1 Hai gia thiet ciia mo hinh:
Gia thiet 1: Tfn dt,mg cong trong nu&c h6 trq cho phat trien tai chinh bang each t~o
thanh khoan trong nuac (t~o tai san an toan). Su d1,mg bien d<)c l~p do luOn.g tfn dl;lng cong Ut: PUBY
Y = a + PI * PUBY + P2 * INCOME+ P3 *INFLATION + P4 * MARGIN + E.
Gia thiet 2: Tfn dl;lng cong trong mrac se kiem ham phat trien tai chlnh. Su dl;lng
bien d<)c l~p do luOn.g tfn dl;lng cong Ia: PUBLIC
Y = a + PI * PUBLIC + P2 * INCOME + P3 * INFLATION + P4 * MARGIN + E.
Trong d6 bien phl;l thu<)c Y cua 2 mo hinh !fin lugt the hi¢n:
LIQUID: phan tram cua cung tien (M2) tren GDP.
- BANK: phm tram t6ng tin dl;lng trong nuac tren GDP.
- PRIVATE: ph~n tram t6ng tfn dl;lng n<)i d!a khu Vl!C tu nhan tren GDP.
Bien dQc I~p:
- PUBY: phan tram tin dl;lng cong trong nuac tren GDP.
,
•
•
PUBLIC: phffn tram tin dt,mg c6ng trong nuac tren t6ng tin d1;1ng - INCOME: LOG (thu nh~p binh quan dau ngum (USD)).
- IFLATION: t)' I¢ l<;rm phat hang nam (theo gia tieu dung).
- MARGIN: Hii sufit cho vay ngiin h<~m trung binh trir cho lai sufit tien gCri.
trung binh.
Bien dc?c l~p tM hi~n chfnh sach tai kh6a:
PUBY PUBLIC
Dugc do luang Mng:
LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
Hinh 4.6: T6ng quat m6 hinh
Bien dc?c l~p th~ hi~n cac chi s6vi m6:
INCOME INFLATION
MAR(JTN
•
"
..
26
Bang 4.1: Hai gia thiet vm .kY v<;mg trong ket qua h6i quy theo mo hinh ciia David Hauner 2006 nhu sau:
Gia thiet y Bien d¢c l~p B
(tin dl;lng cong trong nuoc)
Tin dl;lng cong trong nuoc se h6 trg LIQUID PUBY + cho phat trien tai chinh bang each t~o
BANK PUBY +
thanh khoiin trong nuoc ( t~o tai siin
an to~m). PRIVA1E PUBY ?
Tin dl;lng cong trong nu&c se ki6m LIQUID PUBLIC -
ham phat trien tai chinh.
BANK PUBLIC -
PRIVA1E PUBLIC -
!-
..
•
It
4.2.2 Ket qua hoi quy 10 nuac Chao A
Bang 4.2: ket qua h6i 10 nuac Chau A- m6 hinh gia thiet 1 theo m6 hinh David Hauner 2006
BIEN PHl) THU(>C
LIQUID I BANK I PRIVATE
BIEN D(>C V,.P
I ! 1.269574** -0.32303** I 1.036548**
i i
PUBY I_::Q:_Q_Q¥2_Q ___ I 1.444495*** 0.126245 I , _______________ _
1 ~ i !
r---rl---<Q:.!?..t! (0.30) (0.15) (0.53) ! (0.13) !---iQ:.~U-
INCOME ! 9.832271 * I 68.05421 *** -3.992535 137.4075*** 111.05086** l 107.0331 ***
I ,ã---ã---ã--r I 1ã-ã---ã---ã---ã-
f - - - + ' (5.64) I (6.53) (6.40) (30.75) I (4.94) I (12.32)
I INFLATION I::Q~;.;;..Qi~] 0.091459 0.079199 0.127158 I 0.032615 [Q~~86~--~~=
~---__,;!---!Q:_Q~_)_~-- (0.09) (0.11) (0.13) 1 (0.11) , ________________ (Q:.!?.1
MARGIN I -0.4558*** i -0.8669*** -0.4883*** -0.205914 1-1.1765*** I -1.1296***
I ~---ã---~ I I - - - ã - - -
i_ _____________ (Q:_l§1_1 (0.28) (0.18) (0.44) I (0.13) L_ __________ !Q:I~t
c 17.908301 i -124.192***
I [::~~:~~;:~Q>--r (22.66)
1 R-Squared i __ Q:_~~-~~§~ ____ ! 0.642215
Adjusted R- '
51.0296** -351.999*** 19.544952 1-251.115***
(20.89) (96.45) 1 (16.80) rã:=~==~;~:~~1:
o.864872 o.91846o I o.665125 l__g_:_2QZ?_n _____ _
Squared
Prob (F-statistic)
0.840906 0.626488 ---ã---ã-
0.000000 0.000000
0.847981 0.890897 0.642422 0.509392
1 1 rãã---ã---ã----ã-
; ! I
i 0.000000 ! 0.000000 . 0.000000 ! 0.000000
Muc y nghia *** 1% ; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) la Std. Error
•
"
..
•
J
28
Bang 4.3: ket qua h6i quylO nuac Chau A- m<> hinh gia thiet 2 theo m<> hinh David Hauner 2006
BIEN PHlJ THUQC
LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
-~ - - ' i public cao i oublic thfro I public cao I public thfip I PUBLIC l-0.1888*** LQ:_Q_~Q:!-2§. __________ -0.09441 * 0.105589 -0.34176*** 0.019893 f---+-~(0=.04~)~1---JQ:_Q~_L (0.05 (0.06) (0.04) (0.06) I
INCOME -6.452134 i 73.05278*** 27.80309 41.35423*** 33.86960*** 36.74670***
I . . ---ã---ã---ã+-=-.:...:.=..::.=..::.::.__~:..:=...:.=:__-+-=-==-=-=-::..-+=-.::.:..:...-=-:..::___
f---+--l.:<4:..:.::...:.93) J---ãã----ã---Q.:ID... (16.78)_1 (9.87) 01.39) (9.8~
i i
I INFLATION 0.018029 ! QJ..Q02~7_ ______ -0.005117 I 0.136118 0.075414 0.132463 I
f I
i i
(0.07) ; (0.09) (0.13) ; (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) 1---+----"---'--'-i: ã---ã---ã---ã, ;
I MARGIN -0.27693** !---::Q:~?.-~-~~} ______ 1 -0.4639** I -0.416329 -0.37054*** -0.551392 I
I I l
(0.13) I (0.32) I (0.19) 1 (0.43) (0.13)
1-
1 c---+-6-0.-404...,_02---'-+!--=-!.±Q~;~-~-!:::: ___ ... / -38.96541 -~-48.31258 -61.87091 * -35.78479
1
(0.43)
i ! !
i i !
(15.80) ! ___________ (~~:J.~1! (51.81) I (31.93) (35.18) ( 31.70) I
0.950184 0.892475 R-Sguared 0.900246 I o.570387 0.924371 0.895638
AdjustedR- ~-~:~-~~~~-;--ã---
Squared 0.887777 0.883790 0.884716
1~---ã---ã---... ---ã
Prob (F-statistic) 0.000000 I o.oooooo 0.000000 0.000000
0.923454 0.881223 0.000000 i 0.000000
Muc y nghia *** 1%; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) Ut Std. Error
•
•
•
4.2.2.1 Giai thich ket qua ciia 2 bien dô)c l~p do luimg tin d~:~ng
cong: PUBY~ PUBLIC.
Gia thiet 1: Tin d~:~ng cong trong nu(tc se h6 trg cho phat tri~n tid chinh b~ng
each t~o thanh khoan trong nuoc (t~o tili san an toim). Bien dô)c l~p PUBY Bang 4.4: K€t qua phan tich theo chi~u dQc cua nh6m PUBLIC cao: bi€n d¢c l~p
PUBY
BIENDQCL!P X PUBY
LIQUID public cao 1-0.004420
i
BIEN PHl) THUQC y
BANK
public cao
i 0.126245
ã---ã----ãã--ã----ãã-ã--ãã----ã---ããã---ã---ãL _______ (O.Q.L,__ _ _ , ____ _,_(O: 15)
Muc y nghia *** 1% ; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) Ia Std. Error
PRNATE public cao -0.323034**
(0.13)
Nh6m PUBLIC cao: Khi cac y€u t6 khac kh6ng d6i, PUBY tang 1% thi: PRIVATE giam 0,323% vm muc y nghia 5%. Trong khi d6,PUBY kh6ng th~t SJ! tac d¢ng d€n LIQUID va BANK. Di~u nay cho th~y tin dl;lng c6ng ki~m ham phat tri~n tai chinh,
"l~n at" tin dl;lng tu nhan, do PRIVATE duqc tfnh bang "tfn dl;lng tu nhan I t6ng tin dl;lllg". K€t qua chua chllng minh duqc tin dl;lng c6ng tac d¢ng cung chi~u d€n phat
tri~n tai chinh bang each cung c~p tai siin an toan a nh6m nuac c6 "ty 1¢ tin dl;lng c6ng cao tr~n t6ng tfnh dl;lng". K€t qua chua phu hqp vm nghi~n CUu cua David Hauner 2006 vm nhiing ly do sau:
- Du li¢u cua David Hauner PUBY duqc l~y trung binh tir nam 1980 d€n 2003, trong khi lu~ van l~y s6 tUng nam tit 1996 d€n 2011.
- Nh6m c6 h¢ s6 PUBLIC (tin dl;lng c6ng I t6ng tin dl;lng) cao trong nghi~n
cllu cua David Hauner 2006 la nhiing nuac c6 PUBLIC tr~n 25,5%; trong
•
"
- - - - - -
30
khi 1u~ van c6 nh6m PUBLIC cao Ia tren 31%. D6i v6i nh6m PUBLIC cao cua lu~n van thi tac d(mg nguqc chi~u cua tin dt,mg cong de'n phat trien tai chinh cang ro rang han.
Bang 4.5: Ket quii phan tich theo chi~u dqc cua nh6m PUBLIC th~p: bien d<?c 1~p
PUBY
BIEN PHV THUQC y
BIEN DQC L~ LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
X public th~p public th~p public th~p
PUBY i 1.444495*** I 1.269574** i 1.036548**
f-.-=--=::.=-:=---ããã-ããã-ããã-ããã+:--- - - ã - - - + - - - i
____________________ L ____________________ ...(Q:_?_ol__;_l _ _ _ _ _,(0_._53-'-) _,__i ---'<'--0._41--'-')
Muc y nghia *** 1%; ** 5%; * 10% . ( .... ) 1a Std. Error
Nh6m PUBLIC th~p: Khi cac yeu t6 khac khong d6i, PUBY tang 1% thi: LIQUID tang 1,44% v6i muc y nghia 1 %; BANK tang 1,26% v6i muc y nghia 5%.
PRIVATE tang 1,03% v6i muc y nghia 5%. Di~u nay cho th~y tac dl)ng cung chi~u
cua tin dl;lng cong den phat trien thl chinh thong qua vi¢c cung c~p thl san an toan d6i v6i nh6m c6 PUBLIC th~p. Tuy nhien, theo ket quii tren chung ta th~y rang h¢
s6 tac dl)ng cung chi~u Hm 1uqt cua PUBY den LIQUID, BANK, PRIVATE giiim dan, nghia 1a tin dl;lng cong tac dl)ng cung chi~u den phat trien thl chinh btmg each
t~o thl san an toan, t~o thanh khoan (LIQUID) cao nh~t Ia 1,44%; tac dl)ng cung
chi~u cua tin dl;lng cong giiim dan khi tinh den yeu t6 tin dl;lng tu nhan (PRIVATE) 1a 1,03%. ChUng minh duqc hi¢n tuqng tin dl;lng cong "1~n at" tin dl;lllg tu nhan a
nh6m nuac PUBLIC th~p nhu Vi¢t Nam, nhung chua den muc ki~m ham phat trien thl chinh. Di~u nay phil hqp v6i giii thiet cua David Hauner 2006.
t
•
Bang 4.6 K€t qua phan tich theo chi~u ngang: bi€n dQc: l~p PUBY
BIEND(>CL~P X
PUBY
BIEN PHV THU(>C y
LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
public I public I I
cao public th~p cao public th~p public cao public th~p
' ! i i ! i
i -0.004420 ! 1.444495*** ! 0.126245 ! 1.269574** I -0.32303** ! 1.036548**
ããã--ãã--ããã! (0.13) I (0.30)_l ____ j0.15) I __ (0.5~) I (0.13) I (0.41)
Muc y ngh'ia *** 1% ; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) Ia Std. Error
Nhin chung tfn dl;Jng cong tac d(>ng cung chi~u d€n phat trien Uti chfnh d6i vm thuac do Ia LIQUID va BANK. Tac d(>ng cung chi~u nay a nh6m PUBLIC thfip. D6i vm PRIV A 1E, tin dl;Jng cong tac d(>ng ngu<;tc chi~u len phat trien tru chinh cua nh6m c6 PUBLIC cao, va cung chi~u d6i vm nh6m PUBLIC thfip.
Tfn dl;Jng h6 tr<;1 cho phat trien tai chfnh bang each t<;~.o ra tru san an toan. Tuy nhien, n€u tfn dl;lng cong qua cao (dAn ch\lng a nh6m PUBLIC cao), tfn dl;Jng cong se ki~m
ham phat trien tru chfnh"
Gia thiet 2: Tin d~;~ng cong trong nuac se kiem ham phat tri~n tili chinh do lan at tin d~;~ng tu nhan. Bien d9c l~p PUBLIC:
Bang 4.7: k€t qua phan tich theo chi~u d<,>c cua nh6m PUBLIC cao: bi€n d(>c l~p
PUBLIC
BIEN PHV THU(>C y
BIEND(>CL~ LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
X public cao I public cao I public cao
PUBLIC -0.188822*** 1-0.094416* I -0.341765***
0.041
'
0.041 0.05 ' i
-ã---ã---
'
32
Muc y nghia *** 1% ; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) Hi Std. Error
Nh6m PUBLIC cao: Khi c'k y€u t6 khac khong d6i, PUBLIC tang 1% thi: LIQUID giam 0,19% vm muc y nghia 1 %; BANK giam 0.09% vm muc y nghia 10%;
PRIVATE giam 0,34% vm muc y nghia 1%. Dieu nay cho thay tac d<)ng nguqc chieu cua PUBLIC len cac chi tieu do luemg phat tri6n thl chinh, dille bi¢t la PRIVATE (c6 tinh d€n tin d1;1ng tu nhan) vm muc giam cao nhat 0,34%. K€t qua phu hqp vm gia thi€t 2 cua David Hauner "tin d1;1ng cong trong nuac se kiem ham phat tri6n tai chinh do Ian at tin d1;1ng tu nhan".
Bang 4.8: k€t qua phan tich theo chieu d<;>c cua nh6m PUBLIC thap: bi€n d<)c l~p
PUBLIC:
BIEN PHV THUQC y
BIEN BQC L~P LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
X public thAp public thAp public thAp
I o.o60496 j I o.o19893
PUBLIC ! 0.105589
j !
! (0.05) ! <o.o6) I (0.06)
---
Muc y nghia *** 1%; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) la Std. Error
Nh6m PUBLIC thap: Khi cac y€u t6 khac khong d6i, PUBLIC (tin d1;1ng cong I t6ng tin d1;1ng) chua thvc slJ tac d<)ng d€n phat tri6n thl chinh. Dieu nay cho thay tin d1;1ng cong chua th~t tac d<?ng d€n phat tri6n tai chinh khi nghien cilu bi€n d<)c l~p
PUBLIC. K€t qua hoan toan dung vm nghien cilu cua David Hauner 2006.
Bang 4.9: k€t qua phful tich theo chi6u ngang: bi€n d()c I~p PUBLIC:
BrENDQCL~
X PUBLIC
BIEN PHV THUQC y
LIQUID BANK PRIVATE
I public I I public I 1 public
public cao thAp public cao th~p public cao I th~p
! -0.1888*** I o.o60496 I ___ ~Q:Q~-¥.~ ______ 1 o.1 o5589 I -0.3417*** i g_:~g~~ 2 -~---
---ã---ã---ã---ã---ã'-ã _ ___,_(0_.0-=--4'-L._) ..._I _ _ _:,_:(O...:.C:.o-"-'5)'-'! _____________ {Q:_Q_~---'-1 _(=0=.0=6) _ _LI _ _ ~(0=.04_:,)~1 _______ _(Q:_Q_Đ)___
Muc y nghia *** 1%; ** 5%; * 10%.
( .... ) la Std. Error
Nhin chung, b nh6m PUBLIC cao, tin d1;1ng cong (PUBLIC) tac d()ng ngu<;1c chi6u d€n ca 3 chi tieu do luang phat trien tru chfnh, Ian nhat Ia chi tieu PRIVATE. Di6u nay phu h<;1P vm gia thi€t 2 cua David Hauner 2006. Cho thay hi¢n tu<;1ng tin d1;1ng cong "Ian at" tin d1;1ng tu nhful d6i v& chi tieu PRIV A 1E cang ro r¢t.
D6i vm nh6m PUBLIC thap, tin d1;1ng cong (PUBLIC) vfin chua th~t Sl! tac d()ng den phat trien tru chfnh. Tuy nhien ciing khong ngot;ti trir kha nang xay ra hi¢n tu<;1ng tin d1;1ng cong "Ian at" tfn d1;1ng tu nhful.
4.2.2.2 Giid thich ket qua hoi quy cac bien dQ<: h~p con h;~i trong mo hinh:
Khi cac yeu t6 khac khong d6i, INCOME nhin chung c6 tac d()ng cung chi6u den phat trien tru chinh b ca 3 chi tieu: LIQUID, BANK, PRIV A 1E vm cac h¢ s6 h6i quy rat cao va c6 y nghla. Di~u nay dung v& nghien CUu cua David Hauner 2006
"thu nh~p binh quful d~u ngum the hi¢n muc s6ng cong dan trong qu6c gia d6. M()t qu6c gia giau c6, chat lu<;1ng cu()c s6ng cao, luon la nhfin t6 de tien doan phat trien tru chfnh cua qu6c gia d6"
Khi cac yeu t6 khac khong d6i, INFLATION trong mo hinh chua thl,IC Sl! tac d()ng den cac chi tieu do luang phat trien tai chinh: LIQUID, BANK, PRIV A 1E.
34
Khi cac yeu t6 khac khong d6i, MARGIN nhin chung c6 tac d(Jng ngugc chi~u den phat tri~n tai chinh. Nguqc 1~ v& ket qua h6i quy cua David Hauner 2006. Tuy nhien, trong giii thiet cua Hauner, ong cho rang "MARGIN dt;ti di¢n cho chi phi giao d!ch cua cac trung gian tai chfnh, khi MARGIN cao sedan den tfnh ct;tnh tranh thap Va tac d(Jng ngugc chi~u den SlJ phat tri~n tru chfnh cua ffiQt qu6c gia; ngU<JC lt;ti khi MARGIN qua thap, dum muc ct;tnh tranh thi slJ tang len cua MARGIN se lam gop phftn phat tri~n tru chfnh". Theo dfi' li¢u nghien CUu CUa cac qu6c gia trong IDO hinh c6 MARGIN kha cao so vm cac qu6c gia tren the gim. Vi v~y, MARGIN tang len se
ki~m ham phat tri~n tai chfnh.
..
D6i vm Vi¢t Nam:
./ Tin dt,mg cong trong nuac gop phan phat trien th! truang tai chinh bang each t~o tai san an toan, t~o thanh khoan cho n~n kinh t€ .
./ Chua phat hi¢n tin dt,mg cong trong nuac ki~m ham phat tri~n tru chinh.
ChUn.g minh rang, PUBLIC a Vi¢t Nam th~p va khi tang tin dt,mg conga Vi¢t Nam chi c6 1¢ cho slJ phat tri~n tai chinh. Tuy nhien, ne'u tang tin dl.mg cong len m(>t muc qua cao, di~U do se "l~n at" tin dl.Jng tU nhfin, gfiy h~i cho SlJ phat tri~n tru chinh.
4.3 Ket lm)n chuang 4:
Tu ke't qua cac mo hinh tren, ta th~y tac d(>ng cung chi~u va nguqc chi~u cua tin d1;1ng cong len phat tri~n tru chinh:
./ Tin dl.Jng cong trong nuac t~o ra tai san an toan, giup tang tinh thanh khoan trong th! truOng tru chinh, c6 anh huang cung chi~u de'n phat tri~n tru chinh . ./ Tin dl.Jng cong trong nuac qua cao trong dru h~ se ki~m ham SlJ phat tri~n
cua th! truoog tru chinh .
./ Vi¢t Nam Ia m(>t qu6c gia c6 "tY 1¢ tin dl.Jng cong I GDP" va "tin d1;1ng cong I t6ng tin dl.Jng" kha th~p chua den muc ki~m ham phat tri~n tru chinh. Ben
c~ d6, moi truang phap ly v~ tin d1;1ng tu nhan a Vi¢t N am chua ch~t che, vi v~y gift nq chinh phu nhu m(>t khoan d~u tu an toan cho cac ngan hang la
r~t quan tr9ng d~ h6 trq cac trung gian tru chinh chua du m~ .
~ tnil<ri cho 2 cau hoi nghien cUu Chuang 1:
./ Li¢u vi¢c gia tang trai phieu trong ngan hang, ciing nhu phat tri~n tin d1;1ng cong trong nUOC qua lao CO anh huang den SlJ phat tri~n tai chinh hay khong?
./ Tin dl.Jng cong qua lao c6 lam lful at tin d1;1ng tu nhan hay khong?
Vi¢c gia tang trai phie'u chinh phu nhu hi¢n nay c6 tac d(>ng cung chi~u: giup t~o
thanh khoan va tru san an toan cho n~n kinh t€ tai chinh trong thm ky anh huang cua
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khilng hoeing tai chfnh toan cfiu. Trai phie'u con giup cho cac nga.n hang thuang m~i
thoat khoi tinh tr~g u dqng v6n cho vay. Do do, vi¢c gia tang trai phieu chfnh phil trong thm ky hi~n nay khong nhiing chua iinh huang de'n phat tri~n tai chfnh cila
Vi~t N am, ne'u chinh phil sir dl;lng nq vay d~ kich thfch cac dl! an dfiu tu hi~u qua dieu do COn mang l~i mqt dau hi~U tfch Cl!C .
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