You can combine the three conflicts to obtain the underlying core conflict leading to all three conflicts examined. Because the conflicts derived from the three starting UDEs, resolving the core conflict should have a desir- able impact on all three of the UDEs analyzed. Because the project system is a connected system, the core conflict may contribute to the other UDEs as well.
Figure 3.9 illustrates development of the core conflict. The goal of the three conflicts is common: project success. The top path of the cloud illus- trates the logic that leads to each individual, and therefore each individual task in the project, to work toward its own success. To have a successful project, each task must perform as planned. For each task to perform as planned, each task performer must do whatever it takes for individual task success.
The lower path illustrates the logic that leads to working toward proj- ect success. For the project to succeed, each part of the project must con- tribute to overall project success. To contribute to overall project success, each task must subordinate to the overall project.
That core conflict is the common conflict Dr. Deming referred to, in which working for each part of the system does not lead to an effective system. It is the conflict identified as a principle in TOC: An optimum system cannot have each part of the system as an optimum. Worse yet, the core conflict sets up a win-lose situation between all the project
workers and the project management. No wonder that projects are so stressful to all concerned; no wonder so many projects fail.
Figure 3.10 illustrates how the core conflict leads to all the UDEs. It implies that the core conflict is a high-leverage part of the project system.
A solution (new theory) that resolves the core conflict differently can influence the whole system in a way that tends to move the UDEs to their desirable counterpart.
The logic illustrated by Figure 3.10 is incomplete. It is only a notional connection between some part of the core conflict and the UDE. At this point, if you accept that the core conflict underlies most of or all the UDEs of the project system, you may be willing to consider the beginning of the solution direction.
How do we know that this is the core conflict and not the result of some biased analysis? After all, real experts in project management have
C3 Meet my commitments
B2 Contribute to early
completion
D 3 Complete committed work
′ A1
Short project duration
B1 Keep my delivery
commitment
D1 Include contingency
in task times
C1 Reduce the critical
path time A2
Successful team member
D 1 Do not include
contingency
′ C2
Reduce the critical path time
D 2 Do not turn in work
′ early
A3 Successful career
B3 Demonstrate ‘can-do’
attitude
D3 Accept new tasks
A Successful project
B Demonstrate individual success
D
Include contingency in each task estimate C
Satisfy clients and management by delivering the most scope for the least cost
in the shortest time
D Do not include contingency in each
task estimate
′
D2 Turn work in early
Figure 3.9 The core conflict underlies all three conflicts.
been working on the problem for years, and this is not the result they have come up with. Usually, they say it is some form of not effectively
UDE-1 Projects frequently
overrun schedule
UDE-5 Projects fight over
resources
UDE-6 Project durations get
longer and longer UDE-7
Many projects are canceled before they complete
UDE-2 Projects frequently
overrun budget
UDE-3 Projects frequently deliver less than the
full scope UDE-8
Project work creates high stress on many participants
UDE-4 Projects have too many
changes
Core conflict
Figure 3.10 The core conflict leads to all the system UDEs.
implementing the project management system roughly defined by the PMBOKTM. Others claim it is all about the project leader.
You can never prove that it is the core problem. In a dynamic sys- tem (chicken→egg→chicken), there usually are only circular correlated effects. You need an effective starting point to change such a system. But because the system is completely interconnected, starting anywhere will affect the whole system. To carry the example further, in the past breeders affected the chicken and egg system by selecting the chickens they would breed. Now, they can directly affect the genes in the egg.
The thinking process is looking for a core conflict that seems to have the most—or at least a lot of—impact on the UDEs of the system.
The core conflict is a hypothesis about the system. It is a theory. To find out if it works better than other theories, you have to subject it to critical review and, ultimately, test. The test must predict something happening with this theory that does not happen with the old theory.