INTRODUCTION
The necessity of research
Climate change is a significant challenge of the 21st century, driven by global human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, which contribute to recent global warming (IPCC, 2018) This warming leads to alterations in temperature and precipitation, adversely affecting food and water supplies and resulting in the extinction of numerous plant and animal species Additionally, climate change causes sea-level rise, threatening low-lying areas and posing serious risks to human development and prosperity (Huang & Pascual, 2018).
Developing countries face greater challenges in achieving sustainable development due to their limited adaptive capacity, weak regulatory frameworks, and heavy reliance on natural resources To overcome these obstacles, they require assistance from more developed nations Foreign aid, which involves the international transfer of capital, goods, or services from governments or non-governmental organizations, plays a crucial role in enhancing prosperity in these nations The effectiveness of foreign aid projects is vital for promoting sustainable development globally.
The Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMD), situated in southern Vietnam, is home to approximately 17.27 million residents and spans nearly 4 million hectares, with 67.5% of its land dedicated to agriculture (Vo & Huynh, 2014).
The Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is a global hotspot for climate change, experiencing significant hazards such as sea-level rise, salinization, inundation, water scarcity, and alterations in temperature and precipitation These climate-induced challenges have severely impacted agricultural and aquaculture activities, undermining sustainable development in the region and leading to substantial migration flows in southern Vietnam.
Vietnamese government adopted many official documents towards achieving sustainable development on both national scale and regional scale Some of them are "Viet Nam Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020" (Prime Minister,
In recent years, key documents such as the "National Action Plan for the Implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda" (Prime Minister, 2017) and "Resolution number 120/NQ-CP on Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Development of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam" (Government, 2017; Prime Minister, 2019) have outlined specific directions for sustainable development projects in Vietnam However, due to limited capital and human resource capabilities, the Vietnamese government has sought assistance from external sources, including foreign support, to effectively implement these initiatives.
Various international donors, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency, and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, have initiated Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects to aid local governments and communities in the urgent challenges faced in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) However, there is growing concern regarding the overall effectiveness of these foreign aid initiatives, as well as the driving forces and factors influencing their success Given the limited and under-published research on these issues within the VMD, a comprehensive study is essential to better understand the dynamics at play.
The research questions and hypotheses
Table 1.1 shows the research questions and hypotheses of the study
Table 1.1: Research questions and hypothesis of the study
- What are the main issues affecting sustainable development in the past, present, and future in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam?
- Many issues are affecting sustainable development in the VMD, in which climate change is one of the main issues in the past, present and future
- How is the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for climate change response and sustainable development in the Mekong
- What are the driving forces and factors affecting foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD?
International aid projects often fall short in promoting sustainable development in the VMD amidst climate change challenges This ineffectiveness is largely attributed to misaligned priorities, an overemphasis on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and uneven financial distribution across provinces.
- Aid allocation, fund, coordination between stakeholders, law/ policy, and human resources are driving forces and factors affecting international aid effectiveness in the VMD
- How to improve the foreign aid projects' effectiveness for climate change response (CCR) and sustainable development in the VMD?
- Efforts from all stakeholders are needed for effective foreign assistance projects
- Projects should be focused on main climate change issues at present and in the future and prioritized in the most vulnerable areas to climate change in the VMD
Research objectives and tasks
The research's objectives and tasks are described in Table 1.2
Table 1.2: Objectives and tasks of the study
Ob1: Clarifying main issues affecting sustainable development in the past, present, and future in the
- Collecting data about natural, socio-economic features, issues in the VMD
- Collecting data about climate change scenarios, climate change impacts in the study area
- Interviewing with experts, local people
- Narrative analysis to identify central issues in the past, present, and future in the VMD
Ob2: Assessing the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD, and identifying driving forces and factors affecting foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD
- Collecting foreign aid projects' information in the research area
- Collecting reports on the effectiveness of finished foreign aid projects
- Collecting data of the situation before and after implementing foreign aid projects in some areas within the VMD
- Conducting interviews with experts, local people for assessing the effectiveness of aid projects from stakeholders’ point of view
- Classifying foreign aid projects based on location, fund, focusing issue, etc
- Descriptive analysis to describe the focusing issues of foreign aid projects
- Visualizing the aid projects' distribution
- Inferential analysis to assess the effectiveness of foreign aid projects
- Interviewing with experts, staff of international donors, local authorities to identify driving forces and factors affecting aid effectiveness
- Describing several case studies to investigate the effectiveness of foreign aid projects, and identify driving forces and factors affecting
Objectives Tasks foreign aid effectiveness in the VMD
Ob3: Proposing solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD
- Collecting data related to solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development at the international level and national level
- Interviewing with experts, staff of international donors, local authorities to propose recommendations
- Proposing solutions, recommendations after considering previous studies and conclusions
Objects and scope of the research
This research focuses on the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development in the VMD
This research spans eleven years, from 2010 to 2020, focusing on foreign aid projects related to climate change resilience (CCR) and sustainable development within the VMD region Data was collected during the study period, which extends from December 2020 to May 2021.
Matrix of learning outcomes for the master's thesis
This study could lead to several results and outcome listed below:
- Result 1 (R1): Main issues affecting sustainable development in the VMD
- Result 2 (R2): Arguments on the effectiveness of foreign aid projects for CCR and sustainable development; and driving forces and factors of aid effectiveness in the VMD
- Result 3 (R3): Solutions, recommendations for the effectiveness of foreign aid projects in the VMD
- Outcome 1 (O1): References for sustainable development in the VMD
Table 1.3: Relations between results of the Master's thesis and MCCD's
PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes
PLO1 Accumulating and mastering general knowledge about administration and management PLO2 Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge to address actual problems related to CCR for sustainable development at a local level
PLO3 Identifying, analyzing, assessing, and forecasting the issues related to
PLO4 Planning and approaching the works in the field of CC;
Implementing the solutions on mechanism, policy, and finance for
PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes
R1 R2 R3 O1 implementing solutions for CCR and SD
PLO5 Having skills of cooperation with personal, agencies, organizations domestically and internationally PLO6 Working and researching independently; having skills of research and development
Using the necessary computer skills proficiently; working and researching independently; having abilities of research and development
Using skills of research and development to propose solutions, recommendat ions
PLO7 Being dynamic, confident, persistent, enthusiastic, and risk-taking and management
PLO8 Having a social/ community's responsibility and professional morality
PLOs Results of the Master's thesis Other outcomes
PLO9 Having responsibility for researching
Having responsibility for researching, creating new knowledge, and offering new ideas on CCR
Literature review
This study concerns some concepts, including climate change, CCR, sustainable development, foreign aid, and aid effectiveness
Climate change refers to long-term alterations in climate patterns, characterized by shifts in average conditions and variability over decades or more (IPCC, 2018) It can arise from both natural processes and human activities, leading to significant impacts such as global warming, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather events (MONRE, 2016).
CCR encompasses both climate change adaptation and mitigation Adaptation involves adjusting to current or anticipated climate conditions to minimize negative impacts or leverage positive opportunities, often facilitated by human intervention in natural systems In contrast, mitigation focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions or enhancing carbon sinks to combat climate change.
Sustainable development was first officially introduced by the World Commission
The Brundtland Report (1987) introduced the concept of sustainable development, which emphasizes meeting present needs without compromising future generations' ability to meet theirs This approach involves organizing society across various global fields for long-term viability and encompasses social, economic, and environmental dimensions In 2015, all United Nations member states committed to 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aimed at fostering sustainable development These goals include: no poverty (SDG1), zero hunger (SDG2), good health and well-being (SDG3), quality education (SDG4), gender equality (SDG5), clean water and sanitation (SDG6), affordable and clean energy (SDG7), decent work and economic growth (SDG8), industry innovation and infrastructure (SDG9), reduced inequalities (SDG10), sustainable cities and communities (SDG11), responsible consumption and production (SDG12), climate action (SDG13), life below water (SDG14), life on land (SDG15), peace, justice and strong institutions (SDG16), and partnerships for the goals (SDG17).
Liberalization has enabled needy countries to attract international assistance more effectively Foreign aid encompasses the transfer of money, goods, or services from governments or international agencies to developing nations, as noted by Huang & Pascual (2018) This aid can take various forms, including humanitarian or development assistance, and may be classified as official, private, non-governmental, bilateral, or multilateral support.
To effectively monitor aid projects aimed at achieving the Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals, the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD has introduced the "Five DAC Evaluation Criteria," which include relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability.
In 2005, the OECD DAC established ten criteria for evaluating aid effectiveness, which were later refined in 2019 to six key criteria: relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability These criteria are widely recognized by thirty member countries, including Australia, Canada, and the United States, as well as six observer organizations such as the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Development Program Aid project effectiveness is defined as the degree to which the objectives of these projects are achieved, considering their significance Since 2005, various initiatives aimed at enhancing aid effectiveness have been introduced, notably the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and the Busan Partnership for Effective Co-operation, which outline five fundamental principles for improving aid outcomes.
- Ownership: Developing countries set their own development policies, strategies and coordinate development actions at all levels
- Alignment: Donors bring their support base on developing countries' strategies, institutions, and procedures
- Harmonization: To avoid redundancy, donors coordinate their actions, streamline procedures, and share information
- Managing for results: Developing countries and donors manage resources and improve decision-making for results
- Mutual accountability: Donors and developing countries are accountable for development results
Recently, in the Sustainable Development Goals Era, those principles are still restated by countries confirming the Addis Ababa Action Agenda in 2015
This study examines the impact of international donor aid projects on climate change resilience (CCR) and sustainable development in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) It highlights various challenges, both global and local, that hinder sustainable development in the region The effectiveness of foreign aid projects in promoting sustainable development within the VMD will be evaluated based on their contributions.
Many official documents have been created to orientate activities for climate-resilient and sustainable development in the VMD, particularly "Viet Nam
Figure 1.1: Analytical framework of the research
Climate Change, Sea-level Rise,
Salinization, Flood, Drought, Erosion, etc.
Hydropower dam systems in upstream
Land Subsidence, Population Growth and Migration, etc
Local capital Loans Grants Green finance
The Vietnamese government has established a comprehensive framework for sustainable development through key initiatives such as the "Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020" and the "National Action Plan for the Implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda." These efforts are reinforced by "Resolution No.120/NQ-CP," which focuses on sustainable and climate-resilient development in the Mekong Delta To ensure effective implementation, the "General Action Plan for Implementing Resolution No.120/NQ-CP" outlines specific actions, while the "Priority Project Evaluation Criteria under the Support Program to Respond to Climate Change (SP-RCC)" provides guidelines for assessing projects aimed at addressing climate change impacts.
In response to the severe impacts of climate change in Vietnam, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated the SP-RCC program in 2009, supported by six international donors, including AFD, AusAID, CIDA, Korea Eximbank, the World Bank, and JICA This policy-based budget support program focuses on mitigation and adaptation across 12 sub-sectors involving nine ministries In 2011, the Prime Minister approved Decision No.1719/QD-TTg, establishing evaluation criteria for priority projects under the SP-RCC, emphasizing high-priority initiatives related to sea-level rise, drought, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction, while medium-priority projects address flood, erosion, and typhoons, and low-priority projects pertain to rising temperatures The decision also detailed priority levels for various sectors in the Mekong Delta.
Table 1.4: Priority level by sector in the VMD
- Afforestation, reforestation of mangrove forests
- Tourism protection of watershed protection forests, special-use forests, and production forests
(Source: Decision No.1719/QD-TTg)
In 2012, the Prime Minister of Vietnam approved Decision No.432/QD-TTg, establishing the "Vietnam Sustainable Development Strategy for 2011-2020," which outlined objectives across economic, social, and environmental dimensions The strategy introduced key indicators for monitoring sustainable development, including the Green Gross Domestic Product (GGDP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) Economic indicators focused on renewable energy usage and state budget deficits, while social indicators addressed poverty and unemployment rates, education access, and social insurance coverage Environmental indicators included forest cover rates and water resource management, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating Vietnam's progress towards sustainable development during this period.
In 2017, Decision No 622/QG-TTg established Vietnam's National Action Plan for the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, outlining 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 115 targets aligned with global objectives This initiative aims to enhance Vietnam's commitment to sustainable development and address pressing social, economic, and environmental challenges.
The sustainable development plan for Vietnam encompasses social, economic, and environmental dimensions Socially, it addresses SDG1 (No Poverty), SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being), SDG4 (Quality Education), SDG5 (Gender Equality), and SDG10 (Reduced Inequalities) Economically, the plan focuses on SDG8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) Environmentally, it targets SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG13 (Climate Action), SDG14 (Life Below Water), and SDG15 (Life on Land).
In response to the significant challenges posed by climate change and unsustainable resource exploitation, the Vietnamese government introduced Resolution No.120/NQ-CP in 2017, aimed at promoting sustainable and climate-resilient development in the Mekong Delta This was followed by Decision No.417/QD-TTg in 2019, which laid out a comprehensive action plan for implementing the resolution These initiatives represent a pivotal shift towards a sustainable development strategy for the Mekong Delta, emphasizing the integration of socio-economic growth across the region with a long-term vision and enhanced collaboration among localities Resolution No.120/NQ-CP outlines six essential conditions for sustainable development, including the promotion of high-quality agricultural products alongside eco-tourism and industry, proactive infrastructure planning to adapt to climate change, disaster safety measures, responsible natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and improving the quality of life for residents The General Action Plan further details six specific solution groups to achieve these goals.
To enhance the effectiveness of mechanisms and policies, it is essential to update and systematize data while strengthening investigations Developing a comprehensive master plan is crucial, alongside constructing an economic structure that is resilient to climate change Additionally, investing in and improving infrastructure, as well as mobilizing both national and international resources, are vital steps for sustainable development (Prime Minister, 2019).
The Vietnamese government, at both national and provincial levels, consistently implements the Socio-economic Development Strategy and Plan, alongside guidelines for the Attraction, Management, and Utilization of ODA and concessional loans from foreign donors These frameworks are designed to align international assistance with the country’s development objectives While the Socio-economic Development Strategy and Plan outline general socio-economic indicators, the guidelines specifically prioritize the effective use of foreign assistance.
Table 1.5: Priority sectors in the attraction and use of ODA and preferential loans
Orientations in 2016-2020 period (Decision No.251/QD-TTg, 2016)
1 Infrastructure: transportation, energy, irrigation, urban infrastructure, etc
2 Education & Training, Medical social sector
5 Environment and natural resource protection, CCR, Green growth
1 Infrastructure: transportation, energy, irrigation, urban infrastructure, etc., especially projects that link regions, economic centers and meet the requirements of responding to climate change and sea-level rise
2 Policies for economic, cultural, and social development and strengthening of state management capacity
4 Environment and natural resource protection, CCR, Green growth (Source: Decision No.106/QD-TTg, 2012; Decision No.251/QD-TTg, 2016)
Study area
The Mekong Delta, situated in the lower Mekong Basin of Vietnam, features a low and flat landscape with an average elevation of about 0.8 meters above sea level (Minderhoud et al., 2019) Covering an area of approximately 40,816 km², the delta represents around 5% of the entire Mekong River basin It is bordered to the north by the Vietnam-Cambodia border and to the east by the East Sea.
The region encompasses the Gulf of Thailand to the west and the Vam Co Dong River along with Ho Chi Minh City to the northwest It includes one municipality, Can Tho City, and twelve provinces: An Giang, Dong Thap, Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Vinh Long, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, and Bac Lieu.
The VMD features a dense network of rivers and canals, primarily consisting of the Tien River and the Hau River In 2018, the Tien River recorded a peak water flow of 15,700 m³/s at the Tan Chau station, while the Hau River reached 5,220 m³/s at the Chau Doc station (An Giang Statistics Office, 2020) Additionally, groundwater resources in the region are limited, typically found at a depth of 100 meters, with an estimated exploitable volume of around 1 million m³ per day.
Figure 1.3: Mekong Delta in Vietnam with land use map
(Data source used for making map: MONRE, 2018; Can Tho University, 2017)
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam features four major soil groups: alluvial soil (approximately 30.7%), acid sulfate soil (around 41.0%), saline soil (about 19.2%), and others (approximately 9.1%) (Tran, 2015) Alluvial soils, known for their high fertility, are predominantly found in the delta's center, making them ideal for cultivating rice, fruit trees, and short-term industrial crops Acid sulfate soils are primarily located in the central regions of Dong Thap Muoi and the Ca Mau Peninsula, while saline soils are prevalent along the coasts, significantly impacted by seawater during the dry season.
Figure 1.4: Average precipitation from 1977 to 2018 in VMD (mm)
(Data source used for making map: The Southern Institute of
Water Resources Research, 2018) The VMD has a tropical monsoon climate with a dry season from December to May and a rainy season from June to November The average temperature varies from
The VMD region of Vietnam experiences average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 27°C, with minimal temperature variation between day and night This area receives significantly higher rainfall compared to other regions, with provinces like Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, and Ca Mau averaging over 1,700 mm of precipitation Additionally, the VMD is less affected by typhoons and weather disturbances, making its climatic conditions highly favorable for agricultural development.
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam boasts a coastline of 750 km, representing 23% of the nation's total coastline, and encompasses an exclusive economic zone of 360,000 km², which accounts for 37% of Vietnam's exclusive economic area This region is home to numerous islands and over 800 hectares of intertidal zones The waters near the Mekong Delta are rich in aquatic resources and offer significant potential for tourism development, as well as the exploration of oil, gas, and wind power.
Wetlands in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) represent one of the region's most diverse ecosystems, encompassing three primary types: mangrove ecosystems, inland lagoon ecosystems (Melaleuca forests), and estuarine ecosystems These wetlands are crucial yet sensitive environments that face significant vulnerabilities to various environmental challenges.
In 2019, the total average population of the Mekong Delta (VMD) reached 17,273,630, with the Kinh ethnic group comprising the majority The region is also home to various ethnic communities, including the Khmer, Hoa, and Chams Most residents are concentrated in the central part of the delta, particularly in urban areas surrounding major cities.
24 rivers and Ho Chi Minh City (Figure 1.5) The population in the VMD has grown slowly in recent years due to the low mortality rate and migration
The Mekong Delta (VMD) is a vital region for agricultural and aquaculture development in Vietnam, contributing significantly to the nation's food production It produces key products such as rice, fruits, duck, Pangasius, shrimp, and crab, accounting for 48% of the country's food output and over 85% of its annual rice exports (Toan, 2014) While the VMD is not heavily industrialized, its primary industry focuses on food processing Additionally, the service sector encompasses import-export activities, water transport, and tourism, further enhancing the region's economic landscape.
Figure 1.5: Population density in 2019 (person/km 2 )
(Data source used for making map: General Statistics Office, 2020)
The average Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita in the VMD is nearly VND 44.051 million Can Tho, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Tra Vinh had the
In 2019, the provinces in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) displayed a Gross Regional Product per capita ranging from VND 55 to 66 million, with significant variations across the region (An Giang Statistics Office, 2020; Bac Lieu Statistics Office, 2020; Can Tho Statistics Office, 2020; Soc Trang Statistics Office, 2020; Long An Statistics Office, 2020; Dong Thap Statistics Office, 2020; Tien Giang Statistics Office, 2020; Tra Vinh Statistics Office, 2020; Hau Giang Statistics Office, 2020; Vinh Long Statistics Office, 2020; Ben Tre Statistics Office, 2020; Kien Giang Statistics Office, 2020; Ca Mau Statistics Office, 2020) The Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry & Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management (2021) reported a shift in economic contributions from agriculture-aquaculture-forestry, industry-construction, and services, with their shares changing from 39.6%, 25.7%, and 34.6% in 2010 to 28.3%, 26.4%, and 44.6% in 2019, respectively.
Figure 1.6: Current status of economic structure and scale and
GRPD per capita in 2019 in VMD
(Data source used for making map: Statistics Office, 2020; Statistics Office, 2021)
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam has only 45 km of highway, representing nearly 3% of the country's total highway length, with most roads featuring limited capacity and primarily relying on inland waterway transportation The region's main roads typically consist of two car lanes and one motorbike lane per side, while some have just one lane for each In terms of air travel, the Mekong Delta houses two international airports—Can Tho and Phu Quoc—as well as two additional airports, Ca Mau and Rach Gia Phu Quoc International Airport, though the most utilized in the area, primarily caters to tourism Overall, the transport system in the Mekong Delta demonstrates significant weaknesses in connecting to Ho Chi Minh City and the Southeast region.
Figure 1.7: Transportation in the VMD
27 (Data source used for making map: RHDHV & GIZ, 2020)
METHODOLOGY
Research approach
This study applied two major approaches: the sustainable development approach and the interdisciplinary approach
Sustainable development serves as a vital strategy for countries and regions, promoting long-term harmony and sustainability across economic, social, and environmental dimensions To effectively address the challenges faced by local communities and governments in the VMD, aid projects must adopt a sustainable development approach Consequently, evaluating the effectiveness of foreign aid initiatives should align with sustainable development principles to ensure meaningful impact.
Addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development goals in Vietnam's Mekong Delta necessitates collaboration among diverse stakeholders and an interdisciplinary approach This study integrates knowledge from multiple fields, including environmental science, climate change, infrastructure, policy, economics, and sociology, to effectively tackle these pressing issues.
Research methods
This study employed six primary methods, as outlined in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1, to achieve its three key objectives While each method serves a specific purpose, a combination of these approaches is essential for fulfilling all the study's goals.
Table 2.1: Methods of the study
M1 Data collection - Review literature to define research problems
- Describe the study area, identify main issues
- Get indigenous knowledge related to climate
Methodology Purposes change, foreign aid projects of local people
- Collect opinion of experts, staff in international aid agencies, local authorities about the effectiveness of foreign aid projects and the effectiveness's driving forces and affecting factors
M2 Data analysis - Describe opinions of interviewees
- Provide an in-depth understanding, explanation, and interpretation of significant issues and foreign aid activities
- Classify assistance projects and calculate the total number of each group to describe the situation of international aid in the 2010-2020 period
- Check the correlation between variables to assess the effectiveness of aid projects
- Identify driving forces and factors affecting aid effectiveness in the study area
- Summarize the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats of the VMD
- Develop strong strategies by considering all strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the area M4 Statistical
- Identify the effectiveness of foreign aid projects from the perspective of local people, local government
- Identify the relationships between foreign aid transfer & the characteristics of sustainable development, climate change-related parameters
M6 Mapmaking - Describe the study area from secondary data provided by several organizations
- Visualize the distribution of foreign aid projects
Methodology Purposes from data grouped by the data analysis method
This research used both primary and secondary data In this research, primary data
Figure 2.1: Methodological framework of the research
Climate change issues & other issues
Foreign aid project information (title, donor, geographic coverage, period, total cost, etc.)
Time series data of GRDP, total amount of aid, etc
Situation before and after implementing aid projects
Existing priorities of donors, government
Factors affecting the effectiveness of foreign aid projects
Ob1: Clarifying main issues affecting sustainable development in
Ob2: Assessing effectiveness of foreign aid projects; and identifying driving forces, factors affecting the effectiveness of those projects
Ob3: Proposing solutions, recommendations to improve the effectiveness of foreign aid projects
The study utilized semi-structured interviews conducted in December, gathering insights from experts, aid agency staff, authorities, and local participants or beneficiaries involved in foreign aid projects within the study area.
In 2020, a series of open-ended questions were crafted to align with research objectives prior to conducting interviews aimed at exploring climate change issues, foreign aid project details, and the conditions before and after the implementation of these projects in the VMD The study focused on understanding donor and government priorities, as well as the factors influencing the effectiveness of foreign aid initiatives A total of 74 interviews were conducted, primarily through face-to-face interactions, telephone conversations, and email correspondence.
The secondary data encompasses details from 220 foreign aid projects funded by 68 donors between 2010 and 2020, including project titles, donor information, timelines, geographical coverage, total costs, objectives, and activities This data was sourced from the Mekong Delta Working Group, donor websites, interviews, and reports from the Agriculture Project Management Board under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Additionally, records from local government, aid organizations, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the General Statistics Office, and other entities significantly contribute to this research (Table 2.2, Appendix E).
Table 2.2: Secondary data of the research
Natural, socio-economic features of the VMD
Statistical yearbook of each province in VMD in 2019
Issues in the past, present, and future that affecting the VMD’s sustainable development
Journal articles, reports, records, interview results related to issues in VMD
Data types Data sources version), downscaling to the VMD Policies related to sustainable development, foreign aid projects in
Law, Decree, Circular, Decision issued by the government
Information of previous studies regarding the effectiveness of foreign aid projects
Information of aid projects in the
VMD (donor, project title, project term, location, amount of committed loan/ grant, project activities, focusing fields, etc.) in the 2010-2020 period
Website of international aid agencies, interview results
Situation before and after implementing aid projects
Results of interviews with donors, local authorities, and local people; results of some experiments
Mechanism of launching, executing aid projects
Results of interviews with donors, local authorities
Existing priorities, reasons of donors, local authorities
Driving forces, factors affecting the effectiveness of foreign aid projects
Recommendations, solutions for effective aid projects
This research employed a mixed-methods approach to achieve its objectives, utilizing qualitative analysis methods such as content and narrative analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of key issues and foreign aid activities in the VMD Additionally, quantitative analysis methods were applied to describe foreign aid projects through descriptive analysis and to examine the correlation between total aid transfers and climate change responses.
The analysis of aid allocation involved categorizing projects based on their geographical coverage and aligning them with relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate change-related issues This classification was informed by the projects' titles, objectives, activities, and tasks, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of their impact and alignment with sustainable development initiatives.
Table 2.3: CCR options to classify adaptation projects
- Improve the status of education, nutrition, health, settlements
- Reduce gender inequality Poverty alleviation
- Improve access & management of local resources
- Social protection, Insurance Livelihood security
- Diversify income, asset, and livelihood
- Change cropping, livestock, and aquaculture practices Disaster risk management
- Build & improve early warning system, vulnerability map
- Diversify resources, improve infrastructure Ecosystem management
- Protect and manage forest, watershed & reservoir
- Community-based adaptation Spatial or land-use planning
To enhance the built environment and engineered solutions, it's essential to focus on technological advancements, ecosystem-based strategies, and comprehensive services Institutional improvements should prioritize economic options, alongside the refinement of laws, regulations, and government policies Additionally, social enhancements must emphasize educational initiatives, accessible information, and behavioral modifications to drive meaningful change across various spheres.
- Increase innovation, shifts and changes consistent with CCR and sustainable development
No identifying information of individuals, aid organizations were reported in this
34 study Instead, some pseudonyms were used to ensure the research’s objectivity
Analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of the VMD is crucial for informed decision-making and addressing challenges This study highlights internal factors such as natural characteristics, socio-economic conditions, human resources, current production techniques, local authority management, and regional planning Additionally, it evaluates external influences, including government policies, funding availability, regional connectivity, the hydropower dam system, land subsidence, and global warming, to identify the delta's opportunities and threats.
This study employed Cross-SWOT analysis to develop actionable strategies for the sustainable development of VMD Specifically, four strategic actions were formulated by examining the interconnections among the quadrants of the SWOT framework.
Table 2.4: Strategies under Cross-SWOT analysis
Offensive Strategy: Use internal strengths to maximize opportunities
Strengthening Strategy: Improve weaknesses by taking advantage of opportunities Threats
Confrontation Strategy: Use strengths to minimize threats
Defense Strategy: Act to eliminate weaknesses to avoid threats
Statistical analysis plays a crucial role in gathering and organizing data to derive meaningful interpretations This research effectively categorizes aid projects based on their geographical coverage, connections to relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and climate considerations.
The study identified 35 response options regarding climate change challenges in the VMD, summarizing interviewees' perspectives It also detailed the variables used for the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient Test, including mean and standard deviation, as outlined in Table 2.5.
Table 2.5: Formula of mean, standard deviation
Mean (μ) ∑ n: sample size x i : value of variable from 1 to n Standard deviation
This study analyzes panel data from ten variables to explore the relationship between aid transfer and nine variables related to various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) The selected variables are informed by prior research, SDG targets relevant to the issues in the Mekong Delta (VMD), and their data availability The data, sourced from the statistical yearbook of 13 provinces in the VMD between 2010 and 2020, was calculated by the author and supplemented by information from https://pcivietnam.vn/en Additionally, the total annual cost of international aid projects for each province was estimated on the premise that donors provide a consistent annual amount throughout the project's duration.
Table 2.6: Used variables in Correlation Coefficient Test
Code of variable Variable Unit Related
X Total cost of foreign aid mil Self-calculated from
Code of variable Variable Unit Related
SDGs Source projects VND collected projects' information
Y1 Percentage of poor households % SDG1 Statistical yearbook
Y2 Under-5-year children malnutrition rate % SDG2 Statistical yearbook Y3 Under-1-year mortality rate % SDG3 Statistical yearbook
Y4 Percentage of solid classroom % SDG4 Statistical yearbook
Y5 Percentage of over-15-year old trained female workers % SDG5 Statistical yearbook
Y6 Proportion of households using hygienic water % SDG6 Statistical yearbook
Index SDG9 https://pcivietnam.v n/en
Y9 Total value of the damage caused by natural disasters mil
The Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Test assesses the statistical relationship between two continuous variables, making it a reliable method for evaluating their association By utilizing covariance, this test is regarded as the most effective approach for determining the relationship between variables of interest.
In this study, the Pearson's Correlation Coefficient Test was conducted based on the below function in R statistics: cor.test(xs ,ys ,method = "pearson") Which xs, ys are paired samples
The above function returns a value for a correlation coefficient (r) between -1 and 1 Regarding the level of correlation, Evan (1996) suggested five levels for the
In this research, the null hypothesis (H0) posits that the two variables are independent, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) suggests a statistically significant relationship exists between them A p-value of less than 0.05 indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, signifying statistical significance Conversely, if the p-value exceeds 0.05, the null hypothesis is retained.
This study utilized ArcMap 10.8 to effectively visualize the study area and its associated issues, facilitating aid allocation Data from both primary and secondary sources were normalized and aligned to a common geographic coordinate system before being saved in the attribute table for mapping Initially, a base map was created using land border, provincial boundary, and Esri’s Ocean Basemap data Subsequently, maps were generated using secondary data from various organizations, including Can Tho University and the Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, to illustrate the natural and social characteristics and challenges of the VMD Additionally, information on international aid projects was aggregated and classified into five levels to enhance the visualization of aid allocation.
OVERVIEW OF ISSUES IN THE VMD
Climate change and climate change impacts
The Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) has already felt the effects of climate change, with a study by MONRE (2016) indicating a rise in annual average temperatures at most observational stations and a 6.9% increase in yearly rainfall from 1958 to 2014 Additionally, mean sea levels at tide gauges have risen, with Phu Quoc experiencing an increase of 3.4 mm per year between 1986 and 2014 These trends are expected to persist, resulting in altered weather patterns characterized by more intense and frequent droughts, floods, saline water intrusion, and coastal and river erosion.
According to the RCP8.5 scenario, sea levels along the eastern and western coasts of the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) are projected to rise by 73cm and 75cm, respectively, by the end of the 21st century (MONRE, 2016) This increase in sea level can lead to severe erosion, saline intrusion, and the loss of habitats for various species, including fish, birds, and plants Additionally, heightened sea levels contribute to more intense storm surges in coastal regions, particularly when combined with high tides and large waves.
Figure 3.1: Sea-level rise scenarios based on the RCP8.5 scenario (cm)
Sea-level rise scenarios based on the RCP8.5 scenario (cm)
Year Mui Ke Ga - Mui Ca Mau Mui Ca Mau - Kien Giang
Figure 3.2: The inundation risk map with sea-level rise of 100 cm
Moreover, sea-level rise caused by climate change also increases the inundation risk in the VMD According to MONRE's estimation in 2016, if the sea level rises by
100 cm, roughly 38.9% of the VMD would be at risk of flooding Three provinces that have the highest inundation risk are Hau Giang (80.62%), Kien Giang (76.9%), and Ca Mau (57.7%) (Table 3.1, Figure 3.2)
Table 3.1: Inundation Percentage (% area) corresponding to sea-level rise of 100 cm)
Province/ Area Inundation Percentage (% area)
The VMD, despite its high average annual precipitation, faces increasing vulnerability to droughts, potentially exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, reduced rainfall, and upstream hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin Research by Lee & Dang (2018) highlights a shift in meteorological drought occurrences from the northeastern and northwestern provinces (1995-2004) to southern coastal areas (2005-2014), revealing a decrease in drought frequency but an increase in the spatial distribution of moderate and severe droughts Additionally, during dry seasons, seawater intrusion from estuaries on both coasts poses a significant threat, driven by factors such as riverbed mining, dam construction, sea-level rise, and land subsidence (Ho et al., 2021).
Figure 3.3: Map of 4g/l isohaline from 2013 to 2019 in the VMD
(Data source for making map: Institute of Water Resources Research, 2013-2019)
Between 2011 and 2020, the Mekong Delta region (VMD) experienced two significant drought and saline intrusion events, notably in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020 The 2015-2016 event impacted over 2 million hectares across 12 of the 13 provinces, resulting in an estimated economic loss of around USD 650 million, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) The subsequent 2019-2020 event affected 10 out of 13 provinces and caused even greater damage, impacting approximately 1.7 million hectares (about 42.5%) of the VMD's natural area, which is 50,000 hectares more than the previous event.
2016 (see 4g/l isohaline in 2016 on Figure 3.3) (Thanh Phong, 2020)
Table 3.2: Effects of 2019-2020 drought & saline intrusion
43 saline intrusion affected population impossible to harvest
419 km 2 ≈ 1.3% rice area (winter-spring crop)
260 km 2 (winter-spri ng crop)
Ca Mau, Tra Vinh, Tien Giang, Soc Trang, Kien Giang, Long An
Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang
Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, Ca Mau
Ben Tre, Tien Giang, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau
Ben Tre, Soc Trang, Kien Giang,
Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Long An, Tra Vinh
An, Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Vinh Long (Source: Thanh Phong, 2020)
Flooding in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is primarily caused by rainfall in upstream basins, heavy precipitation within the delta, and tidal influences from the East Sea Climate change exacerbates these conditions, leading to rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, complicating flood scenarios Statistical data reveals that since 2010, the region has experienced one extreme flood in 2011, three medium floods in 2013, 2014, and 2018, along with several smaller flood events.
In 2021, a simulation map by Royal HaskoningDHV and GIZ revealed that Dong Thap and An Giang provinces are at the highest risk of severe flooding, with a frequency of 10% Climate change and rising sea levels contribute to unusually high tides, exacerbated by dyke construction upstream and land subsidence This situation leads to significant flooding, particularly in urban areas of the Mekong Delta, such as Can Tho city, where older streets, ranging from 1.6 to 2 meters in height, frequently experience inundation due to tidal impacts and extreme rainfall Only a limited number of new or upgraded roads exceed current flood levels.
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam, particularly the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, is a vital food basket in Southeast Asia that relies on seasonal flooding to enrich its fertile fields and support diverse aquatic life These floods play a crucial role in preventing saltwater intrusion, but human activities like riverbed mining and dyke construction have significantly reduced flood frequency Recent data from the Dong Thap Centre of Hydro-Meteorology Forecasting indicates that water levels in mid-August 2019 were 0.5 to 2 meters lower than in 2018, adversely impacting the livelihoods of local farmers.
Abnormal floods pose a significant issue in the Mekong Delta, as noted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2018) Typically, flooding occurs in two phases: the early-season flood peaks around mid-August, followed by a slight decrease before rising again in early to mid-September The main-season flood, on the other hand, usually reaches its peak around mid-October In 2018, the early-season flood reached its highest point at the end of August.
August, and the main season flood peaked in the early of October
Figure 3.4: Simulation map of the flood situation with a frequency of 10%
3.1.4 Coastal erosion and river erosion
Between 2010 and 2020, GIZ data indicates that the VMD experienced significant erosion, with approximately 120 locations affected Of these, 25 coastal sites, spanning about 94.5 km, were deemed extremely dangerous due to their threat to dyke safety and damage to residential, administrative, and essential infrastructure in Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Ben Tre, and Tien Giang Additionally, 27 riverine sites, totaling 56 km, posed similar risks in An Giang, Dong Thap, Long An, Can Tho, Tien Giang, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, and Ben Tre.
Figure 3.5: Erosion sites from 2010-2020 in the VMD
(Data source for making map: GIZ, 2020)
Coastal erosion has significantly accelerated in recent years, with a land loss rate of approximately 2.3 km² per year from 2003 to 2012, compared to 1.2 km² per year between 1885 and 1985 (Anthony et al., 2015) Key factors contributing to this increase include rising tides, intensified wave action due to climate change, deforestation in coastal regions, and diminished sediment transfer from upper basins Additionally, river erosion is driven by flooding, heavy rainfall during the wet season, sand mining, increased river traffic, and the added weight of infrastructure along riverbanks (Anthony et al., 2015; Nguyen, 2020).
3.1.5 Sustainable development in the context of climate change in the VMD
Analysis indicates that climate change challenges in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) are closely linked to thirteen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably including SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 5 (Gender Equality).
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encompass a range of critical areas, including SDG6, which focuses on ensuring clean water and sanitation for all; SDG7, aimed at providing affordable and clean energy; SDG8, which promotes decent work and economic growth; and SDG9, emphasizing industry innovation and infrastructure Additionally, SDG11 advocates for sustainable cities and communities, while SDG13 calls for urgent climate action Furthermore, SDG14 addresses the preservation of life below water, and SDG15 focuses on the protection of life on land, all contributing to a holistic approach to sustainable development.
Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production by causing drought and salinization, which in turn reduces farmers' income and exacerbates poverty and hunger, particularly for low-income families Many individuals are forced to abandon their crops and migrate to urban areas in search of employment due to these climatic challenges (Nguyen et al., 2020) Additionally, drought and saline intrusion compromise the availability of safe and affordable water, especially during the dry season in coastal regions, adversely affecting local ecosystems Coastal erosion further contributes to environmental degradation, resulting in the loss of approximately 3,400 hectares of mangrove forests each year.
Ca Mau in recent years (JICA, 2019) Increasing temperature and humidity has a close relationship with increased hospitalization for diarrhoeal disease (Phung et al.,
Erosion and typhoons significantly damage regional infrastructure, such as homes, roads, and schools, hindering economic development and human well-being Climate change exacerbates gender inequality in the VMD, as highlighted by the German Agency for Technical Cooperation and the Australian Agency for International Development (2010), which found that climate-related agricultural and aquaculture failures disproportionately affect poor and landless women The depletion of natural resources and reduced wage labor options force families to relocate due to destroyed homes and shrimp ponds, increasing the burden on women to support their families These challenges are further intensified by rising health concerns, sanitation issues, and a scarcity of clean freshwater.
On the other hand, poverty reduction, hunger eradication, good health, good
Education and economic growth empower local communities by enhancing their access to resources, thereby improving their capacity to adapt to climate change while reducing their vulnerability The development of sustainable cities and resilient infrastructure further supports this adaptability Additionally, the protection and restoration of ecosystems, particularly forests, contribute to increased carbon storage, aiding in climate change mitigation The Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) is rich in renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar energy, and their efficient utilization is crucial for effective climate change mitigation.
Upstream reservoir and water transfer
Figure 3.6: Location Map of Present and Future Hydropower Dams in Lower Mekong Basin
The Lower Mekong Basin is experiencing a surge in hydropower dam construction to meet the growing energy demands, with a total of 38 existing dams on its tributaries Currently, two major dams, the Xayaburi Dam and Don Sahong Dam in Lao PDR, are operational, while 20 additional tributary dams are under construction Furthermore, plans are underway for nine more mainstream hydropower dams, highlighting the region's commitment to expanding its renewable energy infrastructure.
2019) The mainstream dams would generate an average reservoir area of 132 km 2 , two times the average reservoir area of the tributary dams The upstream
The construction of 50 hydropower dams and reservoirs disrupts the natural flood-drought cycle of rivers, leading to reduced water flows in the Lower Mekong Basin This alteration exacerbates the effects of climate change, resulting in serious environmental and human health consequences (Golden et al., 2019; Phung et al., 2021).
Land subsidence
Figure 3.7: Land subsidence rate (cm/year) in the VMD
(Data source for making map: GIZ & GSAT, 2019)
Land subsidence refers to the gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth's surface, a phenomenon observed in certain delta regions of Vietnam, particularly the Mekong Delta (VMD) Currently, the average subsidence rate in the VMD is approximately 1.1 cm per year, which is higher than the average rate of 18 cm over 25 years from 1991 to 2015 (Minderhoud et al., 2017) Areas such as An Giang and the eastern part of Kien Giang experience minimal subsidence, while regions in southern Kien Giang, Can Tho, Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre, and Dong Thap report subsidence rates ranging from 1 to 4 cm.
Mau, Bac Lieu, Hau Giang, and Soc Trang provinces face significant land subsidence rates exceeding 4 cm, increasing their vulnerability to issues such as inundation, storm surges, salinization, and erosion amid rising sea levels This subsidence poses a serious threat to local infrastructures and results in economic losses for the communities in the region.
Land subsidence in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is primarily caused by a combination of natural factors such as consolidation, sea-level rise, salinization, and geological tectonics, alongside human activities including groundwater extraction and the construction of dykes, dams, and large-scale infrastructure Recent studies indicate that groundwater extraction is a significant contributor to the ongoing subsidence in the region (Minderhoud et al., 2017).
Land use land cover change
Figure 3.8: Land use and land cover classification map in VMD
Human activities have significantly altered land use and land cover in the Mekong Delta over recent decades to support economic development Research by Liu et al (2020), utilizing nearly 40 years of satellite imagery, reveals an increase in aquaculture and residential areas Conversely, there has been a decline in crop and fruit fields, mangroves, forests, and unused land from 1979 to 2015 This shift has led to a substantial transformation of rice fields into aquaculture ponds, making aquaculture the second-largest land use in the region.
The transformation of 52 land-use types in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) can aid local communities in adapting to climate change challenges However, this shift does not align with existing local land use policies Additionally, the establishment of aquaculture ponds may lead to water pollution, which could harm adjacent rice fields and potentially threaten future food security.
Deforestation poses a significant challenge in the VMD, particularly in Ca Mau province, where forests are vital for sustainable development through their ecosystem services Despite reforestation efforts initiated in the 1990s that aimed to curb deforestation linked to aquaculture, approximately 3,400 hectares of forest have been lost each year due to coastal erosion in recent years (JICA, 2019) Furthermore, illegal logging for construction and firewood exacerbates the deforestation problem in the region.
Population growth and migration
Figure 3.9: Natural population growth rate & Net migration rate in the VMD
(Data source: gso.gov.vn) Vietnam's total population increased at an annual average of 1.1%, while the VMD's
Year Natural population growth rate (%) Net migration rate (‰)
Between 2010 and 2020, the population of the Mekong Delta increased marginally from 17.2 million to 17.3 million, reflecting a growth rate of only 0.58% Since 2015, the region has experienced natural population growth rates below 0.06% Additionally, the Mekong Delta Economic Report indicates that from 2009 to 2019, immigration to the area was the lowest in Vietnam at 4.9%, while outward migration reached a significant 44.8% Among the 13 provinces, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh, and An Giang exhibited the highest emigration rates Experts forecast that if these trends persist, the population of the Mekong Delta could fall below 17 million by 2030, posing a serious challenge to the future labor force.
Figure 3.10: The migration rate (%) in 2019 and the change in population between 2009 and 2019
(Data source for making map: General Statistics Office, 2020)
Climate change-related issues and other environmental issues such as droughts, landslides, and pollution are the primary reasons for the fall of the population Still,
Economic inefficiencies and inadequate infrastructure significantly hinder development, with underdeveloped road systems causing poor connectivity between provinces Additionally, a lack of urbanization limits the region's capacity to attract foreign investment.
Other issues
In January 2021, an interview with local authorities in natural resources and environment departments revealed that the Mekong Delta (VMD) is grappling with significant challenges, including soil quality degradation and environmental pollution The excessive use of machinery, chemical fertilizers, and plant protection products has diminished the soil's ability to retain and drain water, leading to a decline in soil productivity and a reduction in microorganisms Furthermore, unsustainable production practices and waste from residential areas contribute to environmental pollution, adversely affecting local health, well-being, and tourism For instance, emissions and waste from factories, such as cane sugar plants in Hau Giang and cattle feed manufacturers in Tien Giang, contaminate air and water, posing health risks Additionally, slash-and-burn agriculture exacerbates air pollution, with large quantities of straw and debris being burned during harvests, resulting in increased fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere The construction of dykes in the VMD further restricts water flow, trapping contaminants in the region, while waste disposal issues are particularly concerning in the islands of Kien Giang province.
Sub-conclusion
In conclusion, the Mekong Delta (VMD) is a vast region rich in water resources, making it ideal for agriculture and aquaculture However, the area faces challenges, as local communities prioritize economic growth and often resort to unsustainable production practices Additionally, there is a notable lack of coordination in planning efforts, which hampers effective resource management and long-term sustainability.
The VMD region has attracted 55 investments, driven by government initiatives and the shared interests of local communities However, this has resulted in overlapping management challenges Despite receiving considerable attention from both the state government and foreign donors, the VMD is confronted with serious threats, including climate change, upstream activities in the Mekong Basin, and land subsidence issues.
Table 3.3: Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the VMD
- S1: Having a large delta with abundant water resources
- S3: Having the long river civilization
- W2: Low population growth rate and high migration rate
- W3: Lack of linkage in planning, investment
- O1: Receiving much attention from experts, the state government, domestic organizations and international organizations
- T1: Global threats: climate change, sea-level rise
- T2: Outside threats: hydropower dam systems in the upper stream
- T3: Inside threats: erosion, flood, drought, saline intrusion, land subsidence, soil quality degradation, soil – water – air pollution
The Cross-SWOT analysis outlined in Table 3.4 offers targeted strategies to enhance the situation in the VMD Key strategies include increasing investments in sustainable agriculture and aquaculture, focusing on research and investment for green growth and sustainable development, and prioritizing the protection and conservation of ecosystems.
56 following appropriate guidelines, assistance, (5) coordinating, cooperating with all stakeholders at all scales
Table 3.4: Actionable strategies in the VMD
- S1O1, S3O1: Investing more in sustainable agriculture and aquaculture, asking for more technical assistance
- S2O1: Establishing ecological conservation areas to attract more attention
- W1O1: Following guidelines, technical assistance from experts, the state government, international organizations to understand and apply sustainable productions
- W3O1, W4O1: Cooperating with experts, line departments, other provinces in the VMD, other regions for better management and linkage
Leveraging the advantages of resilient forests and diverse flora and fauna is essential in addressing climate change and its effects, including saline intrusion and erosion Implementing afforestation and reforestation initiatives can significantly enhance carbon storage and help stabilize soil in coastal regions.
- W1T1, W1T3: Investing, researching to improve effectiveness, the efficiency of low-carbon and eco-friendly manufacturing processes
- W3T2: Actively coordinate with other countries in the Mekong Basin, enhancing the application of renewable energy sources with less negative regional economic impacts
Sustainable development in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) faces numerous challenges, including climate change impacts, the construction of upstream hydropower dams, land subsidence, and alterations in land use and cover Notably, climate change issues such as rising sea levels, drought, salinization, flooding, and erosion pose significant threats to the region's sustainability.
Table 3.5: Serious climate change-related issues and most affected provinces in the past ten years & present, and in the future
Climate change-related issues Most affected provinces Past ten years and present
1 Drought & Salinization Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu
2 Coastal & River erosion Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang,
3 Flood An Giang, Dong Thap, Can Tho
1 Sea-level rise Hau Giang, Kien Giang, Ca Mau
2 Drought & Salinization Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Soc
Trang, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre
3 Coastal & River erosion Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang,
Dong Thap, Ben Tre (Source: classified by author)
Over the past decade, the Mekong Delta in Vietnam has faced significant climate change challenges, particularly drought and saline intrusion, with Ca Mau, Kien Giang, and Bac Lieu being the most impacted provinces Additionally, coastal and riverine erosion in Ca Mau, Kien Giang, An Giang, Dong Thap, and Ben Tre are urgent issues that require immediate attention, alongside flooding concerns.
An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho city are key areas in the Mekong Delta, but the rising sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal regions, particularly the west coast of the VMD It is crucial to prioritize attention and resources to address the challenges faced by these vulnerable areas in the future.
Based on prior analysis, the VMD is categorized into three distinct areas affected by climate change: Area I (upper area), Area II (middle area), and Area III (coastal area), each facing unique climate-related challenges as outlined in Table 3.6 As sea levels rise, the regional divisions are expected to shift, resulting in an expansion of Area III.
58 move deep inland (Figure 3.11 and Figure 3.12)
Table 3.6: Descriptions of sub-regions in the VMD
Regional division Location Serious climate change-related issues
- River erosion Area II Middle
- Saline intrusion in dry seasons
- Sea-level rise & storm surges (especially in the future) (Source: divided by author)
Figure 3.11: Regional division for the past ten years and present
Figure 3.12: Regional division in future