INTRODUCTION
Rationale of the Study
Transportation serves as a vital service for moving passengers and goods, deeply intertwined with societal lifestyles and consumption patterns It plays a crucial role in production, as delays in transportation can disrupt supply chains Efficient and affordable transportation not only lowers market prices by ensuring timely delivery of raw materials but also contributes to price stability and economic growth.
The public transportation sector is vital for the growth of both developed and developing nations, as an efficient transportation system creates economic and social opportunities for citizens A robust transportation infrastructure and network are crucial for achieving a high level of development, enabling effective and efficient travel.
Many travelers rely on public transportation, but an inadequate system can lead to increased use of private vehicles, resulting in air pollution, higher energy consumption, and traffic congestion These issues negatively impact the environment and pose health risks to users Therefore, an efficient public transportation system is essential, as it encourages a shift from private to public transport by offering safety, convenience, reliability, and time savings.
Railway transportation is a key component of various transport systems, including land, water, and air, and is particularly well-suited for supporting the compact city model in the long term This mode of transport efficiently facilitates the transfer of goods and passengers via trains along rail lines, offering the capacity to move larger volumes over greater distances compared to other transportation methods Additionally, rail transit has the potential to attract significant private sector investment, further enhancing its viability and sustainability.
Rail transit is the most affordable and convenient transportation option for low-income individuals, particularly in developing countries When organized efficiently, railway transportation serves as a sustainable solution to various issues, including public health and environmental hazards It effectively addresses traffic congestion, a significant challenge in these regions Unlike other transportation modes operated by both public and private sectors, railways are primarily government-controlled In Myanmar, the rail system stands as the largest transportation service, as reported by the Pyithuhlutaw in 1989, operating 18 freight trains and accommodating approximately 100,000 passengers daily.
Location of the Study
Figure 1.1 Map of the Yangon Circular Railway
Background of the Study
The Yangon Circular Railway is a vital component of public transportation in Myanmar, serving as the primary commuter rail network for the Yangon metropolitan area Constructed during British colonial rule, this double-track railway has been operational since its inception, facilitating efficient travel for local residents.
The Yangon Circular Railway, established by the government in 1959, spans 45.9 kilometers and features 38 stations that connect suburban areas to downtown Yangon Although it does not reach the main commercial district, the railway operates at a speed of 15 miles per hour, completing a full loop in approximately three hours With around 200 coaches running 20 times daily, the railway serves between 100,000 to 150,000 passengers each day, making it the most affordable public transportation option in Yangon Ticket prices are set at 100 Myanmar Kyats (MMK) for ordinary class, 200 MMK for upper class, and 400 MMK for the RBE train.
Statement of the Problems
In 2014, JICA reported that only 1% of Yangon’s population utilized the Circular Railway, a figure that rose to just 2% by 2018 according to the Ministry of Rail Transportation The majority of residents prefer buses and automobiles, contributing to significant road traffic congestion in the city This congestion leads to various negative consequences, including increased commuter costs such as travel time and vehicle maintenance, environmental and public health issues from greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, safety costs related to traffic accidents, and higher freight costs due to delays and increased fuel consumption.
Figure 1.2 Transportation mode share in Yangon in 2014
Table 1.1 Ridership of Yangon Circular Railway in Years
Source: Ministry of Rail Transportation (Myanmar)
Existing studies mentioned that eight potential solutions were proposed to improve the ridership of the Yangon Circular Railway They are as follow:
Jan 2,602,075 2,691,444 1,963,441 1,765,896 1,761,680 2,132,793 2,278,779 1,300,074 Feb 2,501,565 2,462,618 1,820,358 1,537,571 1,636,438 2,097,706 2,011,933 1,262,708 March 2,676,854 2,758,898 1,990,788 1,751,742 1,794,546 2,253,462 2,062,202 1,331,829 April 2,385,335 2,421,729 1,738,735 1,474,426 1,454,980 1,928,984 1,716,249 1,135,834 May 2,708,266 2,725,852 1,957,813 1,751,738 1,683,869 2,109,960 1,897,432 1,209,674 June 2,493,467 2,607,189 1,838,994 1,679,770 1,660,890 2,035,774 2,035,595 1,109,091 July 2,490,429 2,781,120 1,866,752 1,710,481 1,795,475 2,103,414 2,123,144 1,080,734 Aug 2,556,702 2,829,808 1,921,252 1,648,311 1,866,183 2,175,282 2,175,282 1,055273 Sept 2,533,471 2,710,519 1,916,502 1,615,986 1,867,058 2,123,370 2,123,360 1,082,564 Oct 2,585,514 2,943587 2,035,439 1,719,861 2,008,473 2,106,184 2,109,134 1,099,541 Nov 2,469,239 2,811,209 1,636,758 1,556,650 1,867,194 2,044,401 1,923,831 988,015 Dec 2,642,632 3,008,615 1,787,673 1,756,351 2,014,612 2,203,609 1,647,307 1,056,249
1 Feeder Service: Introduction of first/last-mile transport service between the bus stop and rail stations
2 Safety System: Introduction of security service, CCTV, and improvement of lighting
3 Increase Speed of Train: Speed up of train
4 Right Time Schedule: Improve the punctuality of Yangon Circular Railway service and time schedule
5 Cleanliness Facilities: Improve cleaning service at trains and stations
6 Park & Ride Facilities: Installation of Park & Ride Facilities for bike and trishaw at stations in urban areas and motorcycles in a sub-urban area
7 Well Pedestrian Facilities: Installation of more pedestrian bridges to cross rail track and safe platform
8 Ticket Price Reduction: Introduction of price discount, especially for students, government staff (Aung, 2013).
Research Questions
While previous studies have assessed the effectiveness of various solutions, they have not addressed their acceptability Consequently, this research aims to explore the question: "Which demographics are most inclined to favor the four effective solutions identified?"
Objectives of the Study
The specific objectives of the study are as follow:
1 To analyze the user’s preference of potential solutions to improve ridership of Yangon Circular Railway
2 To derive the recommendations to local government to improve appropriate services and facilities for Yangon Circular Railway from the findings.
Structure of the Study
This study is organized and presented in five chapters
The research background, location of the study, statement of the problems, objectives of the study including research questions will be mentioned
Chapter 2 will show some existing research papers related to this thesis’s topic In those research papers, they also pointed out the factor influencing the ridership of public transportation, especially in rail transit This chapter also explains how to design and plan for potential solutions proposed to Yangon Circular Railway in the past study
Chapter 3: Data Collection and Research Method
Chapter 3 will introduce the data collection process in this study such as selecting the location of the study, plan of the study, making a questionnaire survey, and implementation of the survey process Besides, the methodology for statistical test and model analysis will be shown in detail
Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Estimation Results
This chapter presents the demographic data relevant to the study, followed by an analysis of the estimation results for the proposed hypotheses Additionally, recommendations will be provided to local government officials, emphasizing the importance of considering these factors in policy-making to enhance ridership on the Yangon Circular Railway.
Chapter 5 will conclude with the discussion from the summary of the findings and finally, research limitations and further research direction will be discussed
Data Collection and Research Method
Data Analysis and Estimation Results
Figure 1.3 Flow of Research Conclusions
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Railway Transportation in Southeast Asian Countries
The first railway line in Myanmar, operated by the Irrawaddy Valley State Railway Company, connected Yangon and Pyay Regions and commenced on May 1, 1877, lasting until December 31, 1928 This 161-mile line was managed under the Indian Railway Board until Myanmar established its own Railway Board in 1937 following the separation from India The railway network suffered significant damage during World War II, particularly in 1942 when Japanese forces dismantled around 500 km of track for their own military purposes After the British colonial government resumed control of the Myanmar Railway Board until December 31, 1947, Myanmar gained independence on January 4, 1948, leading to the reconstruction of its rail infrastructure By 1961, the railway network had expanded to 3,020 km, nearly restoring its pre-war extent, and continued to grow, reaching 5,068 km by 1988.
2000 and the number of train stations increased from 487 to over 800
The Myanmar railway system plays a crucial role in transporting freight to suburban areas and accommodating long-distance passengers In 2013, the main network served approximately 21 million passengers, with ridership decreasing to around 16 million from 2014 to 2018 Notably, suburban ridership surpasses urban travel, totaling over 30 million passengers annually Despite a rise in ridership, figures prior to 2013 were significantly low, as illustrated in Figure 2.1.
Figure 2.1 Passengers carried by Railway in Myanmar (million passenger-km)
The State Railway of Thailand (SRT), established by King Chulalongkorn in 1895 as the Royal State Railways of Siam, is the primary operator of railway transportation in the country Over the years, the railway system has expanded significantly, growing to approximately 3,000 km by 1930 and increasing by about 35% in the past 80 years Currently, SRT operates five main routes that cover around 4,043 km, serving 42 provinces and connecting Bangkok to the northern, southern, northeastern, and eastern regions of Thailand (Asia Development Bank, 2013).
The railway system plays a crucial role in intercity transportation, accounting for 45% of passenger travel and managing an average of 62 freight trains daily Despite a 5.3% annual increase in container traffic demand, other product shipments have declined, limiting rail transit's market share to only 2-2.5% Factors such as a shortage of locomotives and subpar service times have driven shippers to alternative transport modes Additionally, fares on the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) exceed those of the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) for a 200 km journey Between 1993 and 2009, SRT passenger numbers fell by 41%, even though the number of operational trains remained unchanged, resulting in a decrease in SRT's intercity passenger share from 78%.
10 percentages in 1993 to 55 percentages in 2009 as shown in Figure 2.2 (Asia Development Bank, 2013)
Figure 2.2 The Percentage of SRT Passengers
Source: (Asia Development Bank, 2013) 2.1.3 Railway Transportation in Cambodia
Cambodia's railway transportation is managed by the state-owned Royal Railways of Cambodia (RRC) under the Ministry of Public Works and Transport (MPWT) The country features two primary rail lines: the Southern Line, which spans 254 km and connects Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville, Cambodia's main seaport, and the Northern Line, measuring 388 km, linking Phnom Penh to Battambang and Poipet at the Thai border This infrastructure facilitates connections to Thailand's railway system, extending further to Malaysia and Singapore.
Between 1969 and 1970, Cambodia's railway system was in good condition, operating 37 trains daily with 69 locomotives and approximately 900 freight cars, transporting around 2 million passengers (Moly, 2008) However, the railway infrastructure deteriorated significantly due to the impacts of war, particularly with the last 48 km of the Northern Line being destroyed As a result, railway traffic has declined, plagued by unreliable and slow service, despite improvements in the road network over the past decade Additionally, employees face underpayment, and there is a lack of professional skills and adequate staffing within the railway sector.
11 levels are disintegrating The result is that rail transit is operating as a deficit because of poor ridership (Asia Development Bank, 2006)
Figure 2.3 Passengers carried by Railway in Cambodia (million passenger-km)
Source: (The World Bank) 2.1.4 Railway Transportation in Indonesia
The railway system in Indonesia, established by the Dutch Colonial Government 150 years ago, originally spanned 6,458 km but decreased to 4,814 km by 2014, with 3,464 km on Java and 1,350 km on Sumatra, according to the World Bank This rail network was designed to enhance freight operations between inland agricultural producers in Java and the ports, facilitating access to international markets for Indonesian products (Woroniuk, Aditjandra, & Zunder, 2014) Despite its historical significance, the railway accounts for only 7% of passenger transport and 0.6% of freight, while road transport dominates with 84% of passengers and 91% of freight (Muthohar, Sumi, & Sutomo, 2010), surpassing the share of shipping (Sheem, 2012).
Figure 2.4 Passengers carried by Railway in Indonesia (million passenger-km)
Trends in the Ridership of Public Transportation
According to the data of the American Public Transportation Association, the ridership of public transportation decreased by 3% annually between 2014 and 2016 (American Public Transportation Association, 2017)
Figure 2.5 Annual Public Transportation Ridership
Source: (American Public Transportation Association, 2017)
The costs associated with owning and operating automobiles significantly impact public transportation systems (Buehler & Pucher, 2012) Research indicates that personal vehicle availability can influence public transit ridership (Taylor, Miller, Iseki, & Fink, 2009) In certain areas, a decline in automobile ownership has been observed, particularly among younger individuals, due to federal policies aimed at promoting driver licensing This shift has led to an increase in shared-use mobility options, such as bike-sharing, carsharing, and ride-sourcing (Sivak & Schoettle, 2016).
Roughly 10 to 20 years in the future, the population growth and the public commitment to supplying transit will decide the demand for public transportation Ridership will be increased or decreased base on gas prices rising and falling, and other factors such as traffic congestion, parking’s price, fares, speed, reliability, and
13 coverage of public transportation (Mallett, 2018) Changes that are independent of funding increases can make improvements to services (Vock, 2017).
Accessing Descriptive and Causal Analyses of Transit Ridership
Transit ridership studies generally fall into two categories: one that analyzes passenger modes, considering both passengers and operators, and another that investigates the environmental, systemic, and behavioral factors influencing transit ridership (Taylor & Fink, 2003).
Causal and descriptive analyses, which utilize qualitative data from surveys and interviews, present both advantages and disadvantages While these studies provide valuable insights into factors affecting transit ridership, they often raise concerns regarding methodology and interpretation, as the data heavily relies on respondents' perceptions and assumptions (Transit Cooperative Research Program, 1998) This reliance can lead to biased information due to limited or inaccurate responses, and there is a lack of detailed studies outlining specific data collection processes (Bianco et al., 1998) Additionally, the relationship between identified factors and actual transit users is sometimes questionable Many existing studies are outdated and fail to adequately address the causal relationships and the impact of internal and external factors on ridership, although some research has indicated significant improvements in ridership (Sale, 1976; Taylor et al., 2002).
Causal analyses offer significant advantages over descriptive analyses by enabling researchers to utilize a broader range of data and fostering the development of more comprehensive models However, these analyses are often confined to a limited number of systems Past studies have demonstrated that stronger results can be achieved by incorporating data from multiple agencies and outcomes, leading to findings that are more generalizable to other systems (Taylor & Fink, 2003) Despite these benefits, causal analyses face limitations due to the availability of data sets, as many studies rely heavily on easily accessible data, particularly Census data, to assess external variables (Spillar & Rutherford, 1998).
Research on transportation models varies significantly in the types of modes analyzed, with some studies concentrating on specific systems such as bus or rail transportation (Chung, 1997; Kain & Liu, 1996), while others explore multimodal systems (Gomez-Ibanez J A., 1996; Hendrickson, 1986).
Long-term issues such as multicollinearity and high correlation among independent variables can significantly impact transit models A key challenge arises from the relationship between transit service supply and demand, where each relies heavily on the other Consequently, while levels of service can provide some insight into transit ridership, they only partially illuminate the underlying causes of transit use (Liu, 1993; Kohn).
Factors Influencing on Transit Ridership
The factor influencing on ridership of railway transportation can be categorized into two parts: external factor and internal factor (Abdel-Aty, Jovanis & Mohamed,
1995) External factors include service area population and employment On the other hand, fares and service levels are consisting in the internal factor (Taylor & Fink,
There is a significant interplay between external and internal factors affecting transit demand, as evidenced by population growth influencing service needs While organizations often focus on expanding services and introducing new programs to boost ridership, it is crucial to recognize that changes in service are key drivers of demand Many studies indicate that funding limitations are a major barrier to increasing ridership However, past research has suggested that external and internal factors can be analyzed separately in both descriptive and causal contexts.
According to the European Commission on Transportation Research (ECTR) in
In 1996, strategies to enhance railway operations were categorized into direct and indirect approaches Direct strategies focus on improving operational effectiveness and efficiency through fare adjustments, marketing efforts, service quality, facility enhancements, and technological advancements Conversely, indirect strategies aim to influence ridership through public policies, including car ownership taxes, road pricing, access restrictions, parking fees, and land use planning initiatives (European Commission Transport Research, 1996).
Numerous studies have identified key factors influencing transit ridership, with socio-economic and spatial variables being the most significant These factors encompass aspects related to access and public financial matters, highlighting the complex interplay that affects public transportation usage.
The decline in private vehicle ownership in metropolitan areas has led to the growth of two key transit modes, benefiting various passenger groups, including children, the elderly, individuals with disabilities, and low-income individuals with limited access to cars This shift is particularly evident in downtown areas with restricted parking, where public transit serves as a vital link to major employment centers Consequently, employment factors in central business districts are closely associated with increased transit ridership (Taylor & Fink, 2003).
Research indicates that socio-economic factors significantly influence transit ridership levels, with public transportation being more responsive to employment changes than private vehicle use According to the American Public Transit Association (APTA, 2001), over 25 percent of individuals opted for private vehicles instead of transit A study by Chung (1997) highlights that employment and regional development impact ridership more than fare prices Additionally, an analysis of ridership trends in Boston from 1970 shows that external factors play a crucial role in shaping transit usage.
In a 1996 report by Gomez-Ibanez, it was found that each percentage decrease in the employment rate correlates with a 1.24 percent decline in transit ridership This analysis highlights that the employment rate has a more substantial impact on transit usage than individual income levels, as noted by Hendrickson.
In 1986, research indicated that the employment level in central business districts significantly influences transit ridership, surpassing the impact of regional population size Additionally, socio-economic factors such as income levels and car ownership also play a crucial role in determining transit usage.
In the previous studies, the researchers described that the impact of rising incomes has a positive effect on employment growth on ridership (Liu, 1993 & McLeod, 1991).
Consideration of Travel Demand
Transit user demand can be assessed by considering three key factors: existing stations, new stations on fast transit lines, and overall station availability Several specific elements significantly influence access decisions, including parking costs and availability, the quantity and quality of feeder transit services, the diversity of land uses, residential and employment density, the quality of pedestrian facilities, local demographics, safety, and travel time (National Academies of Sciences, 2012).
Residential development within a half-mile radius of a fast transit station is important People living within a 5-minute walk of transit stations are willing to use
Research indicates that most rail transit users are willing to walk up to half a mile to reach stations, although this likelihood drops by 50% for distances beyond 0.3 miles Key factors influencing this walking behavior include local density and retail options, along with individual characteristics such as gender Additionally, access to bicycles can boost transit ridership by up to 40%, contingent on the quality of bicycle facilities, topography, weather conditions, and prevailing bicycle cultures Furthermore, both employment and population densities positively correlate with increased pedestrian access, with work density showing a stronger relationship to pedestrian trips than population density alone.
Feeder Service Transit
The intermodal transportation system presents both challenges and opportunities within public transit, offering significant benefits for enhancing complex transportation networks By integrating rail transport with feeder services, such as bus connections to stations, this system boosts the efficiency and effectiveness of railway travel As a result, it can significantly increase rail ridership, as users are more likely to utilize services that provide convenient access to their desired destinations (Almasi, Mounes, Koting, & Karim, 2014).
Feeder service transit is closely linked to the number of transit connections, with higher population density correlating to increased feeder transit access for residents near stations (National Academies of Sciences, 2012) In Da Nang City, Vietnam, the implementation of transit-oriented development, park and ride facilities, and feeder services aims to encourage a shift from motorbikes to public transportation, specifically bus rapid transit Results indicate a notable decrease in motorbike usage with the introduction of feeder services, although immediate reductions in fuel consumption may not be evident Nonetheless, feeder services play a crucial role in facilitating the transition from automobiles to public transportation, particularly for residents living in proximity to stations (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, 2016).
Type of Stations
There are many kinds of station based on the rail transit type: Light Rail Stations, Heavy Rail Stations, Commuter Rail Stations and Intermodal Terminals
Light rail stations typically range from 55 to 120 meters in length and can feature various platform designs, including center, side, and split platforms at intersections These stations can be located both on-street and off-street along the railway While there has been a recent trend towards platforms with intermediate heights, both high and low platforms remain in use Common amenities at light rail stations include sunshades over the platforms, limited seating, and ticket machines, but they do not have fare gates, as they operate on a proof of payment system (Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 2013).
Heavy rail stations are more intricate than light rail or commuter rail stations, typically ranging from 180 to 240 meters in length They feature high-level platforms to ensure user safety from the trackway and utilize both center and side platforms, often accommodating multiple tracks These stations are primarily designed to be underground or elevated, with intermediate mezzanine levels connecting streets to platforms Special configurations, such as cross-platforms, are permitted, and fare control systems, including enclosed paid zones, are standard, although some European systems still employ proof of payment methods (Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 2013).
Commuter rail stations typically feature one or two platforms, offering limited services and accommodating a small number of passengers traveling from suburban to urban areas These stations utilize either a center platform, side platform, or a combination of both High platforms are designed for higher volume systems, while low or intermediate height platforms are suited for lower volume systems Additionally, some trains serve both passengers and freight.
18 same tracks Platforms in this station are generally 90 to 300 m longs (Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 2013)
Intermodal terminals serve as essential hubs that facilitate the transfer of passengers between various modes of transport, including local buses, bus rapid transit, commuter rail, and intercity passenger rail These terminals offer a range of services such as parking, ticket vending machines, and information booths, enhancing connectivity and convenience for travelers (Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 2013).
Park and Ride Facilities at Stations
Park and ride facilities play a crucial role in transportation by offering convenient options for riders living far from train stations These facilities encourage the use of railway systems, allowing commuters to easily transition from their starting point to their final destination.
Park and ride facilities play a crucial role in enhancing ridership in cities like San Francisco and Denver by providing convenient access to transit stations in areas underserved by local bus services These facilities promote regional mobility and environmental benefits by reducing downtown congestion, minimizing freeway travel, and facilitating access to distant stations Additionally, they lower the need for automobile investments, enable greater spacing between stations, improve transit speeds, and decrease overall operating costs, as highlighted by the National Academies of Sciences (2012).
Park and ride facilities play a crucial role in balancing transit options and maintaining an effective feeder service system While these facilities at transit stations can significantly attract automobile drivers to public transportation, finding the right equilibrium between parking availability and other transport modes is challenging Excessive parking can disrupt feeder network operations, while insufficient parking may limit transit market growth The high demand for existing parking at Calgary Transit’s LRT stations demonstrates the popularity of park and ride among automobile users (Bolger, Colquhoun, & Morrall, 1992).
2.8.1 The Facilities for Bicycle Parking
Bicycling enhances mobility, reduces transportation costs, alleviates traffic congestion, and decreases fuel consumption It also promotes public transport usage, boosts health benefits, and fosters greater environmental awareness (Shaheen, Guzman, & Zhang, 2010).
Bicycle parking facilities play a crucial role in enhancing public transportation ridership and encouraging cycling Insufficient or poorly located parking can deter individuals from choosing bicycles as a mode of transport To promote cycling effectively, it is essential to provide adequate parking at both the starting point and the destination of trips Additionally, these parking areas should be secure to prevent theft and damage, and should include necessary accessories to support cyclists.
Bicycle parking can be categorized into two types: long-term and short-term Long-term bicycle parking facilities are designed for extended use and should offer strong security against theft and protection from the elements These facilities are ideal for locations such as apartments, condominiums, schools, markets, workplaces, and transit stops, and are best situated indoors In contrast, short-term bicycle parking is intended for quick and convenient use, allowing cyclists to lock their frames and wheels for brief periods; however, these facilities typically lack adequate security and environmental protection.
Bicycle racks should be designed to prevent wheel damage and ensure the safety of all bikes, utilizing secure U-shaped locks for frames and wheels They must be accessible without obstructing pedestrians or traffic, allowing for easy use during long-term parking Additionally, these facilities should accommodate various bicycle types, including trishaws, reflecting local needs Enhancements such as rest areas and shared-use paths can support cyclists on longer journeys Effective planning should facilitate bike transport on buses and rail systems, while bikeway and parking maps can guide users away from hazardous routes and provide essential information on traffic rules and safety tips.
Pedestrian Facilities at Stations
Walking serves as the main mode of access to rail transit stations, particularly in lower-density areas The integration of freeways and park-and-ride facilities can significantly enhance pedestrian usage, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of transit systems.
A recent survey indicates that individuals typically walk approximately 0.5 miles, with many commuters exceeding this distance to access rapid railway transportation Key factors influencing this behavior include the design of pedestrian pathways, the availability of safe and well-maintained facilities, and additional amenities that promote walking to stations (Agrawal, Schlossberg, & Irvin, 2008).
Directness and speed of routes significantly enhance pedestrian access to stations, as commuters favor walking along straightforward paths Additionally, safety and security are paramount, requiring well-lit routes that allow visibility of others, particularly during evening and nighttime hours Effective pedestrian design should incorporate friendly features such as appropriate lighting, building setbacks, orientations, and appealing decorations to ensure that pedestrians feel welcomed and secure (Bay Area Rapid Transit, 2003).
Safety and Security at Stations
The safety and security of transit stations are crucial for attracting users, as perceived insecurity can deter ridership, even in safe environments Key elements that enhance station security include law enforcement presence, CCTV surveillance, emergency call boxes, adequate visibility, effective lighting, and the presence of other passengers The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) provides valuable strategies for transit agencies aimed at reducing crime and enhancing the overall security for riders (Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 2013).
DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH METHOD
Introduction
This quantitative study aims to explore the relationship between potential solutions for commuters and their basic demographic information Chapter 3 details the methodology and data collection procedures, including the selection and optimization of bus-stop locations, surveying ridership in the study area, and conducting data analysis.
Plan of the Study
The methodology will include fact gathering, forecasting, analyzing, and recommendation in the plan of the study The flow chart of the study can be shown in Figure 3.1
Figure 3.1 Flow Chart of the Study
Selecting and optimizing of Bus-stop location
The Yangon Circular Railway operates a 45.9-kilometer loop system connecting downtown and suburban areas, managed by Myanmar Railway This network comprises 38 stations, including 20 strategically chosen downtown stations based on socio-economic factors, land use, passenger traffic, and connectivity to other transport modes Additionally, the research examines 20 bus stops located within 0.5 km to 1 km of these selected stations, collecting relevant data to analyze the transportation dynamics in the area.
Survey Process of the Study
In 2013, students from Yangon Technological University (YTU) conducted a survey to explore potential solutions aimed at understanding passenger perceptions and behaviors The questionnaire was designed to gather insights into people's preferences regarding these solutions.
According to the Ministry of Rail Transportation (Myanmar), the monthly ridership of Yangon Circular Railway has been about two million per month since
The data collected by Yangon Technological University in 2013 will be utilized in this thesis, as it is expected to closely resemble the data from 2021, despite challenges in data collection during the COVID-19 pandemic While some biases may be present, the 2013 data effectively represents the population in Yangon, as supported by descriptive statistics.
The survey aims to gauge passengers' perceptions of circular rail transportation and identify opportunities for enhancements that could boost ridership By understanding local behaviors and preferences, the findings will highlight key areas for improvement, ultimately attracting more passengers to rail transit (Aung, 2013).
Before launching a full questionnaire survey, a pre-survey or pilot survey is essential to evaluate the survey format, ensure clarity of questions, and provide training for the survey teams This preliminary step enhances the effectiveness and success of the main survey A pilot survey was conducted with 20 passengers at the BPI bus stop and 20 rail transit users at Gyogone station (Aung, 2013).
3.4.3 Implementation of the On-Site Survey
The survey, conducted on a single A4 page, included 15 questions in addition to basic passenger information Surveyors approached passengers who had just exited a bus or were waiting for their next one, inviting them to voluntarily participate in the study Those who agreed were interviewed, and the surveyors completed the questionnaire on-site at the bus stop (Aung, 2013).
Data Collection at Selecting Bus-Stops
A survey was conducted with 317 passengers at bus stops in Yangon from December 19 to December 24, focusing on their willingness to use railway transportation if proposed improvements were made Data collection took place during peak hours, specifically from 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM, to maximize efficiency.
In this study, data collection was conducted using an interview technique, allowing surveyors to engage with bus users for approximately 1 to 5 minutes to gather information While some respondents needed to wait to complete the questionnaire, this method helped reduce selection bias and save time, despite the limited number of respondents As shown in Table 3.1, the goal was to interview at least 20 passengers at each bus stop; however, only 16 passengers were successfully interviewed at the St John bus stop (Aung, 2013).
Figure 3.2 Implementing the Questionnaire Survey at Bus Stops (Aung, 2013)
Method of the Study
The study is performed following three steps:
In this step, there are two tests used
Test 1: Non-parametric test by using Kruskal-Wallis test to check null hypothesis: “Preference ranking of one subgroup for a set of solutions is different from that of the other subgroup”
Test 2: T-test for the significance of variables by using Binary Logit Model to check null hypothesis: “Specific socio-demographic factor is not significantly associated with their preference of solutions”
Step 3: Discussion about policy recommendations to local government
Eight potential solutions were proposed to improve Yangon Circular Railway ridership (Aung, 2013) The author in that study mentioned that the combination of
25 four solutions: Feeder Service, Safety System, Increase Speed of Train, and Right Time Schedule can increase about 80% of Yangon Circular Railway ridership
Research indicates that safety and operating speed in public transportation are closely linked to passengers' age and education level, but not significantly affected by gender or individual income (Feng et al., 2018) Additionally, high-speed rail transit shows a positive correlation with household income (Sun et al., 2016) Studies reveal that females and employed individuals are more inclined to utilize feeder services compared to their male and unemployed counterparts (Yim et al., 2006) While there is limited research on the impact of socio-demographic factors on ridership solutions for the Yangon Circular Railway, existing studies underscore the importance of these factors in shaping individual preferences for public transportation It is crucial to consider the diversity of preferences across different socio-demographic groups in transport policy to ensure equitable decision-making Consequently, relevant hypotheses have been formulated.
H 1 : Males are likely to prefer Feeder Service than females to use Yangon Circular Railway
H 2 : Females are likely to prefer Safety System than males to use Yangon Circular Railway
H 3 : High-income people are likely to prefer Increase Speed of Train at Station than low-income people to use Yangon Circular Railway
H 4 : High-income people are likely to prefer Right Time Schedule than low-income people to use Yangon Circular Railway
In this phase, two types of tests are employed, starting with the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test, which aims to evaluate the null hypothesis.
1 “Preference ranking of male for a set of solutions is different from that of female” for H1 and H 2
2 “Preference ranking of high-income people for a set of solutions is different from that of low-income people” for H 3 and H 4
The Kruskal-Wallis test used in this study is a kind of non-parametric alternative to one-way ANOVA The required assumptions during performing the Kruskal-Wallis test are
The continuous distributions for the test variable are exactly the same for the different populations
The cased represent random samples from the populations and the scores on the test variable are independent of each other
In statistical analysis, we consider multiple populations represented by samples such as x11, x12, x13, …, x1n1 for population 1, and similarly for populations 2 through k, denoted as x21, x22, x23, …, x2n2, and xk1, xk2, xk3, …, xknk Each sample xij, where i ranges from 1 to k and j ranges from 1 to ni, corresponds to the data from the i-th group and the j-th observation The continuous distributions of these observations are represented by Fi(x), capturing the underlying statistical properties of each population's data.
Moreover, it supposes that the independent random samples of sizes n 1 , n 2 , , n k are drawn from k continuous populations The alternative hypothesis of Kruskal- Wallis test is
H 1 : F 1 (x) ≠ F2(x), which means at least two population distributions differ in location
This hypothesis can be made more specific For example, population medians are different
Observations are ranked in ascending order, with the smallest observation assigned a rank of 1, the next smallest a rank of 2, and so on, up to the largest observation which receives a rank of N Let R_ij represent the rank of the data point x_ij, and define R_i as the sum of the ranks within the i-th sample Consequently, each sample mean can be denoted accordingly.
Where, R’ is the overall mean, and because is
The Kruskal-Wallis test assesses the extent of deviation between observed mean ranks and their expected values A significant difference indicates support for the alternative hypothesis H1.
The statistic test can be computed as
N= sum of sample sizes for all samples k = number of groups
= sum of the rank in the i sample
After implanting test 1, T-test for the significance of variables by using Binary Logit Model The purpose of this test is to check the following null hypothesis:
1 “Female/male is not significantly associated with her/his preference of solutions for H 1 and H 2
2 “High-income person is not significantly associated with her/his preference of solutions for H 3 and H 4
This study employs a binary logit model for hypothesis testing, assuming that passengers select the most appealing option between two alternatives By analyzing the choices made by passengers, we can infer their preferences For instance, if a passenger (referred to as i) opts for "yes" regarding potential solutions, it indicates their inclination towards those options.
In decision-making, the utility associated with a "yes" response (U i1) is greater than that of a "no" response (U i0) for individual i The utility U ij for alternative j, where j represents "yes" (1) or "no" (0) on a solution, is made up of a systematic component influenced by an attribute X and a random element Ɛ ij.
But utility U ij is not observable What we observe is decision Yi, which is worth
1 if individual i chooses “yes” on solutions and 0 if he/she chooses “no” on solutions
If a rational individual chooses the alternative that gives him/her greatest utility, then we would have:
Probability [Y i = 1] = Probability [U i1 > U i0 ] Probability [Y i = 0] = Probability [U i0 > U i1 ] McFadden (1974) proves that in this case the probability that a passenger i chooses alternative 1 is:
The binary logit model is a simplified version of the multinomial logit model, where the row vector of explanatory variables, denoted as X'i for the i-th individual, includes the independent variables discussed in the previous section (Cramer, 1991).
3.6.3 Step 3: Discussion on Policy Recommendations to Local Government
This section presents policy recommendations for local government based on interviews conducted with staff members of the Yangon Circular Railway, as well as insights gathered from a literature review of similar cases in developing countries.
Definitions of Variables
In this section, the explanations of variable using in tests are as follow:
Gender: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “male” and a value of 0 in the case of “females.”
In this study, individuals categorized as "young people," defined as those under 30 years old, are assigned a value of 1, while "old people," those over 31 years old, receive a value of 0.
Income levels are determined by job types, with a value of 1 assigned to low-income individuals, including those who are unemployed, students, or blue-collar workers Conversely, a value of 0 is given to high-income individuals, which encompasses self-employed and white-collar workers.
Feeder Service: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Safety System at Train and Station: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Increase Speed of Train: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is
“yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Right Time Schedule: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Cleanliness Facilities at Train and Stations: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Park and Ride Facilities at Stations: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Well Pedestrian Facilities at Stations: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is “yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
Ticket Price Reduction: Presume a value of 1 if the individual questioned is
“yes” and a value of 0 in the case of “no.”
DATA ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION RESULTS
Introduction
This chapter analyzes data collected from a questionnaire survey conducted at twenty bus stops, utilizing the Statistical Program for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software The analysis reveals key insights into the underutilization of rail transit, the demographic characteristics of passengers, and their perceptions regarding potential improvements in rail transportation.
Demographic Characteristics of Respondents
Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1 indicate that 57.7% of respondents are male, surpassing the 42.3% of female respondents This data reveals that males tend to utilize public transportation systems more frequently than females.
Table 4.1 Percentage of Gender of the Respondents
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Figure 4.1 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage Classified Based on Gender
Table 4.2 reveals that the predominant age group utilizing public transportation is between 20 and 24, comprising 22.1% of respondents The second-largest group is aged 25 to 29, accounting for 16%, followed by those aged 35 to 39 at 12.3% This demographic primarily includes university students and blue-collar workers, highlighting the necessity for efficient public transportation to facilitate their commuting needs.
Table 4.2 Percentage of Age subgroup of the Respondents
Figure 4.2 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage Classified Based on Age Types
Approximately 64% of public transportation users are individuals with low incomes, including blue-collar workers, students, and the unemployed, while about 36% are high-income passengers, primarily composed of white-collar employees and self-employed individuals.
Table 4.3 Percentage of Incomes of the Respondents based on Type of Jobs
Figure 4.3 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage Classified Based on Income
4.2.4 Causes of Lowering in Ridership
Table 4.4 highlights the reasons why passengers avoid rail transportation, revealing that 41% of individuals prefer buses because they offer direct routes to their destinations, unlike rail transit Additionally, 21% of commuters find rail transit inconvenient, while 6% express concerns about trains not adhering to their schedules These findings indicate a clear preference for bus transportation in Yangon, as it provides easier access and direct connections to most downtown locations, whereas rail systems require multiple transfers and do not cover all city areas.
Table 4.4 Causes of Lowering in Ridership
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Do not run as schedule 19 6.0 6.0 46.7 inconvenience 67 21.1 21.1 67.8 unsafe 2 0.6 0.6 68.5 not used to 1 0.3 0.3 68.8
4.2.5 Travel Modes of the Respondents
The mode of travel commonly used is walking to the bus stops which is about
In Yangon, bus transit is the most popular mode of transportation, with 59% of passengers utilizing it, while approximately 35% opt for bus transit as their second choice Additionally, only about 6% of individuals use bicycles or trishaws to reach bus stops, highlighting the limited availability of park and ride facilities in the city.
Table 4.5 Percentage of Riders Based on Mode of Travel
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Figure 4.4 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage Based on Modes of Travel
Respondents provided information on their travel methods to bus stops and their plans for reaching their destinations after alighting Analyzing these travel modes helps assess transfer rates and understand access modes, which refer to how passengers reach bus stops This information is crucial for planning service improvements aimed at enhancing accessibility and potentially increasing ridership levels.
A feeder service or shuttle bus system offers frequent and efficient transportation for passengers traveling between bus stops and stations, enhancing convenience and saving time for those using rail transit Despite its benefits, this system remains unfamiliar to the public in our country, as many individuals struggle to comprehend its operation and are reluctant to make multiple transfers during their journeys.
Table 4.6 Percentage of Respondent for Feeder Service Solution
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Figure 4.5 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage for Feeder Service Solution
Table 4.6 and Figure 4.5 indicate that 71% of bus transit users are willing to switch to rail transit if a feeder or shuttle bus service is available, while 29% prefer to maintain their current mode of transportation.
4.2.7 Solution - 2 Providing Right Time Scheduling
Effective time scheduling and adherence to that schedule are crucial for the success of a transit system The existing timetable and the unpredictability of operations contribute significantly to ridership issues in circular rail transit Addressing these factors is essential for improving the overall performance of rail transit services.
A well-structured schedule and operational system can lead to approximately 80% of passengers favoring regular use of rail transit Transitioning from buses to trains not only enhances passenger satisfaction but also significantly alleviates road traffic congestion Table 4.7 illustrates the percentage of passengers willing to switch modes if trains adhere to timely schedules.
Table 4.7 Percentage of Respondent for Right Time Schedule Solution
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Figure 4.6 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage for Right Time Schedule Solution
To ensure timely operations, it is essential to maintain locomotives effectively and achieve high train speeds Additionally, effective communication between trains and stations is crucial, allowing passengers to track train locations and estimated arrival times.
39 have to wait to catch the trains To fix such communication, each train should install a train radio system that the train driver can use to communicate with the stations
4.2.8 Solution – 3 Providing Increase Speed of Train
A transit system's primary function is to transport the public safely, conveniently, affordably, and quickly To achieve success, it must outperform other transport modes in safety and speed Currently, the operating speed of rail transit is relatively low, averaging about 15 miles per hour, with a complete loop of 29.5 miles taking approximately three hours Utilizing a larger gauge track can enhance operational speed compared to a narrow gauge The Yangon Circular Rail currently operates on a meter gauge, but replacing it with a standard gauge could significantly increase train speeds.
Table 4.8 Percentage of Respondent for Increase Speed of Train Solution
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Figure 4.7 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage for Increase Speed of Train Solution
According to Table 4.8 and Figure 4.7, approximately 82% of bus users expressed a preference for rail transit if it offers faster travel times Many of these passengers noted that traffic congestion on roads has worsened compared to previous years Rail transit, which operates on exclusive routes, is seen as a viable alternative to alleviate the delays caused by road congestion.
Public transportation is essential for individuals with middle and low incomes, and it is crucial that ticket prices remain affordable for these users Currently, the rail transit system offers ticket prices of 100 kyats for two trips in ordinary class, 200 kyats for a single trip in upper class, and 300 kyats for upper trains for one trip.
RBE train tickets are priced at 400 kyats, making them more expensive than ordinary trains, which offer affordable options This pricing structure poses a challenge for low-income individuals who may find it difficult to afford the higher costs associated with RBE and upper-class train services.
Table 4.9 Percentage of Respondent for Ticket Price Reduction Solution
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Figure 4.8 Pie Chart of Passengers Percentage for Ticket Price Reduction Solution
Estimation Results of Statistical Test – Test 1
Table 4.15 presents the results of the Kruskal-Wallis test, highlighting significant differences in preference rankings between subgroups for various solutions Specifically, males show a distinct preference for the Feeder Service solution compared to females in hypothesis 1 In hypothesis 2, females exhibit a significantly different preference for the Safety System solution than their male counterparts Furthermore, hypotheses 3 and 4 reveal that high-income individuals have notably different preferences for the Increase Speed of Train and Right Time Schedule solutions compared to low-income individuals.
Table 4.15 Results of Kruskal-Wallis Test
Solutions Male High-income Test
Estimation Results of Statistical Test – Test 2
The table 4.16 presents the results of binary logit model to check that specific socio-demographic factor is not significantly associated with their preference on Feeder Service solution
Table 4.16 Results of Binary Logit Model for Feeder Service Solution (H 1 )
Variable Coef Sig Coef Sig
The comparison of the two models indicates that model 1-1 is superior to model 1-2, as evidenced by its lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of 39.197 In model 1-1, males show a significantly higher preference for the Feeder Service solution, with a coefficient of 0.749 and a p-value below 0.01, suggesting that males are more inclined to prefer this solution compared to females Consequently, hypothesis 1 is supported.
The table 4.17 describes the results of binary logit model to check that specific socio-demographic factor is not significantly associated with their preference on Safety System solution
Table 4.17 Results of Binary Logit Model for Safety System solution (H 2 )
Variable Coef Sig Coef Sig
The analysis indicates that models 2-1 and 1-2 exhibit similar Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, suggesting little difference between them In model 2-2, the relationship between males and the Safety System solution is not significant; however, model 2-1 reveals a strong positive significance (0.811) for males' preference for the Safety System solution, with a p-value below 0.01 This suggests that males are more likely to prefer the Safety System solution compared to females, leading to the partial rejection of hypothesis 2.
The table 4.18 describes the results of binary logit model to check that specific socio-demographic factor is not significantly associated with their preference on Increase Speed of Train solution
Table 4.18 Results of Binary Logit Model for Increase Speed of Train solution (H 3 )
Variable Coef Sig Coef Sig
The comparison of models reveals that model 3-1 is a superior fit compared to model 3-2, as indicated by a lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value Additionally, the results demonstrate a significant negative relationship (-0.742) between low-income individuals and their preference for the Increase Speed of Train solution, with a p-value below 0.05 This suggests that high-income individuals are more inclined to favor the Increase Speed of Train solution than their low-income counterparts, leading to the acceptance of hypothesis 3.
The table 4.19 describes the results of binary logit model to check that specific socio-demographic factor is not significantly associated with their preference on Right Time Schedule solution
Table 4.19 Results of Binary Logit Model for Right Time Schedule solution (H 4 )
Variable Coef Sig Coef Sig
The comparison of models reveals that model 4-1 is superior to model 4-2, as indicated by its lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value The findings show that low-income individuals exhibit a significant negative preference (-0.77) for the Increase Speed of Train solution, supported by a p-value below 0.05 This suggests that high-income individuals are more inclined towards the Right Time Schedule solution compared to their low-income counterparts Consequently, hypothesis 4 is accepted.
Discussion on Policy Recommendation to Local Government
Research indicates that males are more inclined than females to favor feeder services, potentially due to the additional charges associated with these services Females tend to be less willing to incur such costs and generally prefer to maintain consistent travel modes for their journeys, avoiding transitions between different forms of transport, such as walking, buses, and trains.
To enhance acceptance among both genders, local government should consider implementing affordable charges for feeder services Additionally, the existing Yangon Circular Railway fails to reach the primary commercial district, necessitating the development of supplementary rail networks integrated with a bus transportation system.
Research indicates that males show a greater preference for the Safety System solution compared to females This discrepancy may stem from the fact that women often avoid using the Yangon Circular Railway (YCR) due to concerns about sexual harassment and other forms of violence In contrast, men frequently utilize the YCR, even during early mornings and late nights, to transport goods after work Additionally, the trains lack doors, leading passengers to climb aboard while the train is in motion, with some even running and jumping onto the train as it departs.
52 crimes such as thief Especially at night, some passengers including alcoholics, louts, and fools can cause annoyance to other users
A well-secured rail transit system significantly enhances the sense of safety, attracting more riders and creating a safer environment To improve safety on the Yangon Circular Railway, it is essential to upgrade the lighting system in enclosed spaces, as adequate lighting can deter crimes like pickpocketing, theft, and harassment Additionally, having uniformed security personnel and police patrolling passenger coaches and stations can further bolster safety measures It's also crucial to provide education and training for transport employees on safety protocols while increasing public awareness Implementing digital technologies, such as CCTV, is another effective strategy for enhancing safety at trains and stations.
High-income individuals prioritize increased train speeds more than low-income individuals, likely due to their greater time value Currently, train speeds in Yangon Circular Railway are only 24 km/hr, which is slower than public transportation during traffic congestion To enhance efficiency, it is essential to increase railway speeds, especially since the current meter gauge limits high-speed transit capabilities Transitioning to a standard gauge would facilitate faster travel However, to accommodate different income levels, rail services should offer two options: a low-cost, slower service and a premium, high-speed service for wealthier passengers Additionally, improving the railroad subgrade, as demonstrated by the Bangkok – Maeklong Line, can significantly reduce travel times, achieving up to a 67% increase in speed.
High-income individuals tend to favor a revised schedule for the Yangon Circular Railway (YCR) that aligns with their office hours, as the current timetable does not accommodate their needs The irregularity of train operations significantly impacts passengers' daily activities, emphasizing the necessity for improved punctuality Implementing a navigation system, such as GPS and mobile applications, would provide real-time updates on train arrivals and wait times, enhancing the overall passenger experience Additionally, addressing minor delays promptly and ensuring that drivers and station staff communicate effectively can help maintain operational timeliness Regular maintenance and high-quality equipment are crucial to prevent technical failures that disrupt schedules Furthermore, authorities should prohibit vendors on trains, as they contribute to delays and create discomfort for passengers.