MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONAL TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY  AMENA EASMIN DETERMINING DRIVERS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGES IN MANGROVE EXTENTS IN HAI PHONG CITY, VIETNAM MASTER THESIS IN FOREST SCIENCE Hanoi, 10/2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONAL TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY  AMENA EASMIN DETERMINING DRIVERS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGES IN MANGROVE EXTENTS IN HAI PHONG CITY, VIETNAM Major: Forest Science Code:8620201 MASTER THESIS IN FOREST SCIENCE Academic advisor: Assoc/Prof Dr Nguyen Hai Hoa Hanoi, 10/2018 Abstract Mangroves are well-recognized as the ecologically highly diverse coastal areas in the tropics and subtropics Recently it has severe damages due to various land use activities such natural and human driven forces High population growth and migration into coastal areas are found one of the most extensive irresolvable land use changes in recent decades, which is very serious contentions as well as disruptive, this could be resulting from the destructive issues of rapid land use changes in the coastal areas of Hai Phong, Vietnam As coastal areas are already in the risk of climate change impact.The future trend of this land use could bring us to an extreme alarming stage, such as natural calamities, coastal erosion, and waste-land This study provided the assessment of spatiotemporal changes of mangroves extent using remotely sensed data and what are the drivers of it In this study, Landsat and Sentinel-2 data were utilized to quantify the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULCC), andfocused onthe periods of 1994-2001, 2001-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2018, and decadal changes.The unsupervised classification was selected to determine the land use and land cover Error-matrix based accuracy assessment was accomplished after ground truthing Results revealed that the biggest expansion of mangroves occurred during 1994-2001 due to the support of mangroves plantation project „Planting mangroves, preventing disasters‟ Case study areas Bang La and Dai Hop communes were found to be well-managed by local communities,while Tien Lang area found as a vulnerable to natural disaster and human activities, due to its individual management and extensive practices of aquacultures This paper demonstrates the congruous development of relevant key drivers of coastal mangrove changes, with an emphasis on the land use change drivers Meanwhile this study not only would be helpful to future research but also illustrated an applicable plan for sustainable mangrove management Keywords: Remote Sensing, Spatial resolution, Sentinel-2,Sustainable mangrove management, Mangroves extents,Land use land cover change i PUBLICATION DURING MASTER THESIS Easmin, A., Hai-Hoa, N., Zuklin, T., Huu-Nghia, N (2018) Determining drivers of spatial-temporal changes in mangrove extents in HaiPhong city Journal of Ocean and Coastal Management (Submited and Under Review) Huu-Nghia, N., Hai-Hoa., N., Thanh-An, L., Ngoc-Lan, TT.,Easmin, A., MinhTu, NT (2017) Using SPOT to estimate biomass and carbon stocks of Pinusmerkusii plantation in DinhHai commune, ThanhHoa province Journal of Forest Science and Technology 5:84-94 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research is funded by Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under grant number 105.08-2017.05 First and the foremost, I would like to thank my adviser and I am deeply indebted to my supervisor for his constant and genuine support as well as guidance; It would not be possible to learn GIS without him Associate Professor Dr Nguyen Hai Hoa, heartfelt thanks for encouraging me during my difficult times and pushing me to complete my tasks I would like to acknowledge, The Vietnam National University of Forestry for providing me the scholarship It would not be possible to study for masters without your support I would like to express my gratitude to Erasmus Plus to grant me scholarship for student mobility program I am also thankful to the George-August University of Goettingen to letting me study for a semester Thanks to DAAD for your wonderful cooperation in the „Tropical International Forestry (TIF)MasterProgram‟ I extend my sincere thanks to all of my teachers in VNUF, they always encourage me to be work done I would like to express my sincere thanks to the staff of the VNUF for your continuous help; your support and consideration were so important Thanks to Commune‟s Red Cross and Commune People‟s Committee and local people in Bang La, Dai Hop and Tien Lang, Hai Phong City for supporting us when collecting data iii List of Contents Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION Chapter 2: LITERATYRE REVIEW 2.1 Overall GIS and Remote sensing 2.1.1 GIS 2.1.2 Remote sensing Mapping 10 2.2 Application of GIS and remote sensing to detect land use and land cover change 10 2.3 Application of GIS and remote sensing to detect mangrove extents 11 2.3.1 World scale 11 2.3.2 In Vietnam 11 2.4 Mangroves 12 2.6 Mangroves in Southeast Asia 14 2.8 Importance of mangroves 17 2.5 Case study 21 Chapter 3: RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Research goal and objectives 24 3.1.1 Goal 24 3.1.2 Objectives 24 3.2 Research scope 25 3.3 Methodology 25 3.3.1 Rationale of study 25 3.3.2 Detailed methods 27 3.3.3 Satellite data collection 27 3.3.4 Investigation of the status of spatial mangrove extents and current mangrove management schemes 28 3.3.5 Construction of coastal mangrove thematic maps in selected years 29 3.3.5.1 Image pre-processing 29 3.3.5.2 Image interpretation 30 3.3.5.3 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31 3.3.5.4 Supervised Classification 31 3.3.5.5 Unsupervised Classification 32 iv 3.3.5.6 Accuracy assessments 33 3.3.6.3 Land use land cover change detection analysis 35 3.3.6.1 Key drivers of change identification 36 3.3.7 Recommendation for sustainable mangrove management 36 Chapter 4: SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS OF HAI PHONG 37 4.1 Geographic features 38 4.2 Climatic features 39 4.3 Land use type 39 Chapter 5: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 43 5.1 Current land cover Status of mangroves and its management scheme 44 5.1.1 Current land cover status 44 5.1.2 Accuracy Assessment 48 5.1.3 Mangrove management scheme 51 Mangroves management in Bang La and Dai Hop 51 Socio-economic features 55 5.2 Spatiotemporal changes in mangroves extents 56 5.2.1 Temporal changes of mangroves from 1990-2018 56 5.3 Mangrove change detection and key drivers 58 5.3.1 Land cover change detection in selected periods 58 5.3.2 Key drivers of changes in mangrove extents 64 5.3.3 Spatiotemporal changes in mangroves extents over the last three decades 67 5.4 Feasible solution for better management of mangroves 70 Chapter 6: GENERAL CONCLUSION AND RESEARCH IMPLICATION 75 6.1 General conclusion 75 6.2 Limitation of the Study 76 v List of Tables Table 2.1 Types of series of Landsat imagery Table 2.2 Mangroves in Southeast Asian countries 16 Table 3.1 Remotely sensed data used in this study 29 Table 3.2 Useful bands for mapping 31 Table 3.3 NDVI values for various cover types 32 Table 3.4 Description of different land cover classes of the study area 33 Table 3.5 Selected ground truthing points in this study 35 Table 5.1 Land use land cover status of the study area (ha) 47 Table 5.2 Accuracy assessment for Tien Lang area 2018 50 Table 5.3 Accuracy assessment for the Bang La and Dai Hop area 2018 50 Table 5.4 Average income from mangroves resources 56 Table 5.5 Mangroves changes in Tien Lang from 1994-2018 (ha) 57 Table 5.6 Change detection of mangrove extents in Tien Lang(T), Bang La and Dai Hop (B) 63 Table 5.7 Decadal changes in mangroves extents (ha) 69 Table 5.8 Dynamic of mangroves extents in three decades (ha) 70 vi List of Figures Fig 2.1 GIS Data Layers Fig 2.2 Various use of GIS Fig 2.3 Mangroves in Bang La 12 Fig 2.4 Spatial distribution of mangroves in the world 14 Fig 2.5 Spatial distribution of mangroves in Southeast Asia 15 Fig 2.6 Spatial distribution of mangroves in Vietnam 17 Fig 2.7 Mangroves function 19 Fig 4.1 Geographic map of study area 39 Fig 4.2 Mangroves vegetation in Bang La(left) and Tien Lang (right) 42 Fig 5.1 Land cover status in Bang La, Dai Hop and Tien Lang 47 Fig 5.2 Land Cover Map of Study area……………………………………… 50 Fig 5.3 Oil splitting(left) and plastics pollution(right) in Bang La 51 Fig 5.4 Residents in Tien Lang district deal with the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinica 51 Fig 5.5 Mangroves extents in Bang La, Dai Hop and Tien Lang 58 Fig 5.6 Land use land cover change graph of Tien Lang 62 Fig 5.7 Land use land cover change graph of Bang La and Dai Hop 62 Fig 5.8 Land use land cover change map of mangrove extentsin Tien Lang, Bang La and Dai Hop 64 Fig 5.9 Decadal changes in mangroves extents in Tien Lang, Bang La and Dai Hop 70 vii List of Diagrams Diagram 3.1 Flowchart of image classification method used in this study 28 Diagram 5.1 The Provincial management structure 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Ans: How is the mangrove used in the area? What you use it for? Ans: Do you manage the mangroves in anyway? Ans: Have any areas of mangrove been replanted? Ans: Who owns the mangroves? Ans: What are the main factors contributing to mangrove deforestation? Ans: Is there any fishing or crab collecting at the mangrove? Ans 10.How local communities and indigenous populations benefit from the maintenance of mangroves? Ans: 94 APPENDIX-2: Photographs Map of land use and land cover from 1990-2018: Fig Land use and land cover of Tien Lang, Bang La and Dai Hop using NDVI 95 Fig Land use and land cover of Tien Lang, Bang La and Dai Hop using Supervised Classification 96 Fig Land use and land cover of Tien Lang, Bang La and Dai Hop in 1990 97 During field survey: 98 ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONAL TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY  AMENA EASMIN DETERMINING DRIVERS OF SPATIO- TEMPORAL CHANGES. .. assessment of spatiotemporal changes of mangroves extent using remotely sensed data and what are the drivers of it In this study, Landsat and Sentinel-2 data were utilized to quantify the spatiotemporal... Sentinel-2,Sustainable mangrove management, Mangroves extents, Land use land cover change i PUBLICATION DURING MASTER THESIS Easmin, A., Hai- Hoa, N., Zuklin, T., Huu-Nghia, N (2018) Determining drivers