Acknowledgements ARENBERG DOCTORAL SCHOOL i FACULTY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCE MODEL BASED RIVER WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS Thanh Thuy Nguyen Supervisor: Prof dr ir Patrick Willems Dissertation presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in Engineering Science August 2017 Cover image: http://all-free-download.com/freephotos/water-droplets-hd.html MODEL BASED RIVER WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS Thanh Thuy NGUYEN Promotor: Prof dr ir P Willems Members of the Examination Committee: Prof dr ir H Heynen, chair Prof dr ir W Sansen, chair Prof dr ir I Smets Prof dr ir E Toorman Prof dr ir A van Griensven (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) Assoc Prof dr ir T H L Pham (Water Resources University, Hanoi, Vietnam) August 2017 Dissertation presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in Engineering Science © 2017 KU Leuven, Science, Engineering & Technology Uitgegeven in eigen beheer, Thanh Thuy Nguyen, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40 – bus 2448, B-3001 Heverlee (Belgium) Alle rechten voorbehouden Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden vermenigvuldigd en/of openbaar gemaakt worden door middel van druk, fotokopie, microfilm, elektronisch of op welke andere wijze ook zonder voorafgaandelijke schriftelijke toestemming van de uitgever All rights reserved No part of the publication may be reproduced in any form by print, photoprint, microfilm, electronic or any other means without written permission from the publisher Water is key to life Language is key to society Knowledge is key to success Acknowledgements No one can live on other people but no one can succeed without support and cooperation from other people The day I finish my PhD research is not so far I would like to take a moment to thank all the people who, consciously or unconsciously, have contributed to this work First of all, I would like to thank my promoter Prof Patrick Willems You brought me to the river water quality modelling since my Master thesis After my Master, you recommended me to keep working on the river water quality topic for my PhD At that moment, I thought there was not much work to and everything was very clear During my PhD, I realized that nothing is perfect; the question was how we can mitigate the disadvantages and evaluate their effects On the way to find the answers, I have received your guidance, comments and encouragements Especially, I highly appreciate the trust and freedom you gave me to fill my research in the USA for the last 1.5 years I would like to thank Thuy Loi University for reserving my position at the university during my PhD research I would like to thank Prof Ilse Smets and Prof Erik Toorman for the follow up of my research and for providing comments and suggestions from the start of my PhD research to the final Your advice helped me to consider the research problems in a more comprehensive way In addition, I would also like to thank the other members of my jury for their feedback on my thesis text Prof Ann van Griensven, thank you for sharing your expertise to improve my future research Prof Thi Huong Lan Pham, thank you for making the long journey to attend my public defence Prof Willy Sansen and Prof Hilde Heynen, thank you for chairing my jury I also thank Prof Yoram Rubin and Dr Susan Hubbard for offering the opportunity to be a visiting student at UC of Berkeley I would like i ii Acknowledgements to thank Anita, Rita, Yalina, Edmundo and Mathias for the administrative support, Freddy and Gerda for the technical support I am grateful to the Interfaculty Council for Development Cooperation (IRO) for granting years of my PhD research I also would like to thank the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) and Innovyze company for providing MIKE and InfoWorks software licenses, and the Flemish Environmental Agency (VMM) for supplying data Thank you Ingrid Keupers for your excellent work on river water quality modelling on which I could build further Thank you Els Van Uytven for your cooperation, and Vincent Wolfs for delivering the InfoWorks RS dongle to me during my maternity leave I also would like to thank all our group members who contributed to the development of WETSPRO and the climate change perturbation tool More thanks go to all of my friends who brought my home to Belgium and the USA in very colorful culture environments A special word of thanks goes to my parents, siblings, niece and nephew You always encouraged and supported me to finish my PhD I also would like to thank Phuong and Simba, who accompanied me since the very first day of my PhD We have shared the happy and sometimes though time together, even online or offline I am so proud of being with you, being your wife and your mama Last but not least, I would like to say thanks to a very special person that I have admired since I was small Your love, your life and your work have been following me and lighting my life and my career up 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WWTP - Receiving water system at Dessel (Belgium) Water Science and Technology 45(3), pp.117–124 WILLEMS, P., VRAC, M., 2011 Statistical precipitation downscaling for smallscale hydrological impact investigations of climate change Journal of Hydrology 402, pp.193–205 WOLFS, V., MEERT, P., WILLEMS, P., 2015 Modular conceptual modelling approach and software for river hydraulic simulations Environmental Modelling & Software, 71, pp.60–77 YOUNG, A.R., 2006 Stream flow simulation within UK ungauged catchments using a daily rainfall-runoff model Journal of Hydrology 320(1–2), pp.155–172 Curriculum Vitae Thanh Thuy Nguyen was born on December 4th, 1985 in Hanoi, Vietnam She received the degree of Bachelor in Hydrological and Environmental Engineering from Hanoi Water Resources University (present name is Thuy Loi University) with the great distinction in 2008 She has been working at Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hanoi Water Resources University since 2009 She had been a teaching assistant before she was awarded Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR) scholarship With this scholarship, she followed the Master Programme of Water Resources in Belgium in 2009 She achieved the Master Degree in Water Resources Engineering from KU Leuven & Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) with the grade cum laude in 2011 Her Master thesis was entitled “River water quality modelling for the Grote Nete catchment In 2012, she enrolled in the PhD program at the Hydraulic Division of the Department of Civil Engineering at the KU Leuven under the supervision of Prof dr ir Patrick Willems granted by KU Leuven Interfaculty council for Development Co-operation (IRO) During this PhD study, she participated at international conferences in Vietnam and the USA She spent one year (12/2015-11/2016) at UC Berkeley as a visiting researcher Next to her research, she was teaching assistant for the courses of Open Channel Flow in Civil Engineering Bachelor and River Modelling in Master programme of Water Resources Engineering Contact Email: Office: thanhthuy.nguyen.wru@gmail.com thanhthuy_rt@tlu.edu.vn Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources, Thuy Loi University 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam 183 Publications by the author Articles in internationally reviewed academic journals • • • Nguyen T.T., Keupers I., Willems P (2017) (Accepted under revision) Conceptual River Water Quality Model with Flexible Model Structure Environmental Modelling & Software, in review Nguyen T.T., Willems P (2016) The influence of model structure uncertainty on water quality assessment Water Resources Management, 30 (9), pp.3043-3061 Keupers I., Nguyen T.T., Willems P (2015) Modelling the time variance of the river bed roughness coefficient for improved simulation of water levels International Journal of River Basin Management, 13 (2), pp.167-178 Meeting abstracts, presented at international scientific conferences and symposia, published or not published in proceedings or journals • • Nguyen T.T., Willems P (2015) How is the river water quality response to climate change impacts? AGU Fall meeting San Fransisco, 14-18 December 2015 Nguyen T.T., Willems P (2014) River water quality modeling in InfoWorks-RS for the Molse Nete river Congress of the Asian and Pacific Division of the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research IAHR-APD2014 Hanoi, Vietnam, 21-24 September 2014 185 186 Publications by the author Meeting abstracts, presented at other scientific conferences and symposia, published or not published in proceedings or journals • Nguyen T.T., Willems P (2015) River water quality modelling, uncertainty analysis and impacts of climate change Vietnamese Rectors' Mission to Belgium Gent, 19 Oktober 2015 ... image: http://all-free-download.com/freephotos /water- droplets-hd.html MODEL BASED RIVER WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS Thanh Thuy NGUYEN Promotor: Prof dr... the river WQ drivers 158 9.1.2 Develop a river water quality conceptual model based on InfoWorks RS 160 9.1.3 Uncertainty analysis and assessment of climate change impacts on river water quality. .. hydrological model calibration to the climate change impact assessment 141 8.2 Results and discussions 8.2.1 Propagation of climate change to river water quality input 142 143 8.2.2 Impacts of climate