BQ GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO TRYING DAI HOC KINH TE THANH PHO HO CHI MINH DANG THI MY NGAN GIAI PHAP PHAT TRIEN TIN DUNG DAU TIf NHA NYIJC TAI SB GIAO DICH II — NGAN HANG PHAT TRIEN VIET NAM Chuyén nganh : TAI CHINH - NGAN HANG Ma so : 60340201 LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH TE NGU€fI HLDG DAN KHOA HOC: PGS TS TOM THI XUAN IIUONG THANH PHO HO CHI MINH — NAM 2012 LV CAM DOAN Toi xin cam doan luan vlin la cong trinh nghién ctiu cfia riéng Hi Ciic thong tin va so li(u sit dung luan van la hoan toan trung thuc DANH M¶C CAC CH’11 VIET TAT BOO (Build — Own — Operate) Xay dIIng — so hint — van hanh CBTD (Gross domestic product) Tong san pham quoc not NHPT Ngan hang Ph:it trién NHPTVN Ngan hang Ph:it trién Vi(t Nam NHTM Ngan hang thuong mai NSNN ODA (Official Development Aids) Ho tro ph:it trién chinh thuc SGDII So Giao d|ch II — Ngan hang Ph:it trién Vi(t Nam TCTD To chfrc tin dung TDDT Tin dung dau tu TDX]C TNHH Triich nhi(m hfru han TPCP Tr:ii phiéu Chinh phii TPHCM Thanh Ho Chi Minh TSDB The World Trade Organization To chuc thuong mai The gioi DANH M C CAC BANG BIEU Trang Bang 1.1 Su khac c‹i ban giiia NHPT va NHTM B:ing 1.2 Su khac c‹i ban giiia TDDT Nha nucic va TDDT ciia NHTM 11 Bang 2.1 Doanh so cho vay th nlim 2008 den 2011 38 Béng 2.2 Tinh hinh du net tit nam 2008 den 2011 39 Bang 2.3 C‹i cau du no theo nganh kinh té tu’ nam 2008 den 2011 39 Bang 2.4 C‹i cau du nq theo phan kinh té tir nam 2008 den 2011 40 B:ing 2.5 Doanh so thu np tir nam 2008 den 2011 41 Bang 2.6 Tinh hinh no quit han tir nam 2008 den 2011 42 50 Bang 2.8 B:ing phan tich phuong sai Anova B:ing 2.9 Bring tom tat ciic h( so hoi quy 50 B:ing 2.10 Muc hoan thénh ké hoach dupc giao hang nam 55 B:ing 2.11 Du np TDDT Nha nuoc ciia NHPTVN va SGDII 55 B:ing 2.12 Quy mo TDDT Nha nuoc trén dia ban 56 Béng 2.13 So du huy do) ng tar SGDII-NHPTVN theo ky han huy dong 57 Bang 2.14 Két qu:i huy dong von nuoc ctia NHPTVN 65 DANH MHC CAC DO THJ Trang Biéu 2.1 Toe tang truéing kinh té cua TP.HCM giai doan 2008-2011 29 Biéu 2.2 Chuyén dich c‹i cau kinh té TP.HCM giai doan 2008-2011 30 Biéu 2.3 Doanh so cho vay giai doan 2008-2011 Biéu 2.4 Tinh hinh du no giai doan 2008-2011 39 Biéu 2.5 Co cau du nq theo nganh kinh té giai doan 2008-2011 40 Biéu 2.6 Ce cau du no theo phan kinh té giai doan 2008-2011 41 Biéu 2.7 Doanh so thu np giai doan 2008-2011 42 Biéu 2.8 Tinh hinh net qu:i han giai doan 2008-2011 43 PHAN MW DAU Tinh cap thiet cfia de Hi: Cung voi su phiit trién ciia san xuat hang héia dich vp, ciic loai hinh tin d g thuong mai, tin dpng ngan héng duqc ph:it trién in me va da d g de dap ting nhu cau Tuy nhién, TDDT Nha nuoc mang tinh chat da(c thii nhat d|nh vi ngoéi vi(c lé in t kénh ho tro von cho c:ic du :in dau tu thuoc cac nganh, linh vpc, vting mién kho khan can duqc khuyén khich dau tu thi dong vat tro quan trpng vi(c diéu i mi“i Chinh phii qua vi(c trién khai ciic chuong trinh, du :in trpng cctiiiaa diem, thuc day chuyén d|ch c‹i cau kinh té theo huéng CNH-HDH, gop phan phiit trién kinh té - xa hoi quoc gia Trén thuc té, cac nucic co nen kinh té nhu Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Trung Quoc da phat huy rat tot vai tro cua loai hinh tin dung cho cong cuoc t:ii thiet va phiit trién dat nuoc So Giao dich II - NHPTVN la mot nhfrng don vi duqc giao nhi(m vu thuc hi(n TDDT Nha nuoc Trong nhiiiig nam qua, hoat dong TDDT Nha nucic SGDII thuc hi(n da dat ducic nhitng két qu:i nhat d|nh, co nhung dong gop vi(c thuc day chuyén d|ch cc cau kinh té, khai thac tiém niing kinh té cua d|a phuong, xa hoi hoa gi:to duc y té, gop phan phat trién kinh té- xa hoi theo d|nh huéing ciia Nha nucic Tuy nhién, bén canh nhfmg két qu:i da dat duoc thi vi(c ph:it trién TDDT Nha nuoc ciing khfing tr:inh khoi vi(c boc lo mot so han ché In“ c‹i ché chinh siich den cong t:ie quan ly diéu hénh Chinh vi the, vi(c nghién ctiu va tim cac giai phiip khac phuc nhiing han ché trén nh tdng cuéng vat tro ciia TDDT Nha nuoc doi v‹ii nén kinh Ie la rat can thiet Xuat phiit tu’ ly déi, de tai “Glaiphap phat trlén ti’n ding daa tir Nut nirrc tqi SP Glao dJch II- Ngan hang Phat trién VI I Nam” dupc I:ie gi:i lpa chpn de thuc hi(n lua(n vdn i kinh té thac Myc tieu 99 - M c dii da co nhieu co gang, nhién nhimg hgn ché ve mét kién thuc ly thuyét va thuc tien nén de tai nghien cGu khong tr:inh khoi nhimg thiéu sot, han ché Toi rat mong su dé›ng gop quy b:iu cfia c:ie nha khoa hpc, quy thay co, c:ic anh ch| va cac ban de luan vlin dupc hoan thi(n hon TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tran Kim Anh (2006), Tcii lix:u tcip hu n vé qucin tr[ ngan hcing va quan tr[ riii ro tin dung dciu tv ciia Nhci nirctc, Hpc vi(n Ngan hang Ban chinh sach phét trién Ngan héng Phat trién Vi(t Nam (2012), “Mot so van de ve chién lu‹ic hoat dong cua NHPTVN den ndm 2020”, Tap chl HP try phét 3-8 Vuong Minh Chi (2006), “Dinh huéng doi tupng huéng tin dung Nha nuoc giai doan hoi nhap WTO”, Tcip chi Ho tryphcit trién so 3, tr 14-16 Nguyén Dling Din (2007), Nghiep vu Ngan hcing thvong mqi, Nh:i xuat bén Thong ké Nguyen Th| Thu Hang (201 l), “Day manh hoat dong TDDT tai S‹i Giao d|ch II — NHPTVN”, Tqp chi Ho tryphcit 9-11 Tran Cfing Hoa (2012), “Sq khiic bi(t hoat dong TDDT ciia Nha tryphcit Ngan hang Ph:it trién Vi(t Nam, Bcio ccio tong két hocit d ng céc ncim 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Ngan hang Ph:it trién Vi(t Nam — So Giao dich II, Béo céo tong két hocit dcing céc ncim 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Nguyén Vlin Quang (2006), “Kinh nghi(m quoc té ve TDDT ph:it trién ciia Nha nuoc va bai hpc doi voi Vi(t Nam”, Tcip chl HP tryphét trién st 19, tr 6-9 10 Pham Lan Thanh (2011), “Mot so gi:ii phép nang cao hi(u quit quan ly von TDDT ph:it trién tar So Giao dich I”, Tap chl Her tryphhcciitt trién 11 Hoang Trpng va Chu Nguyén Mong Ngpc (2008), Phcin tich dv lix:u nghién cite véi SPSS tap I vet 2, Nh:i xuat b:in Hong Duc 12 Uy ban nhan dan TPHCM, Ban céo tinh hinh thij:c hieu kinh té-xa hcii thcinh ccic nam 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 13 Tham khao thong tin trén trang web cua Tong Cuc Thong ké Vi(t Nam, Cuc Thong ké TP.HCM, So Ké hoach va Dau tu TP.HCM PHI,J LI,JC I BANG CAU HOI KHAO SAT BANG CAU HOI TEN DE TAI: GIAI PHAP PHAT TRIEN TIN DJ,JNG DAU TO NHA NTSC TAI SP GIAO DJCH II - NGAN HANG PHAT TRIEN VI(ET NAM Tfii xin cam két toan bo thong tin ciia Anh/Chi chi du‹ic sir dung nham muc dich nghién cuu Cac thong tin néy se duoc gifr bi mat va chi dupe cung cap cho gi:to vién de kiém chung can thiet Xin luu y rang khong co cau trii lcii nao lé dung hay sai, tat ca cite y kién tr:i loi déu co gi:i tr] va him ich cho vi(c nghién cuu ctia tfii Xin chan cain on su hpp t:ic ciia Anh/Chi! - Cliu 1: Anh/Ch j hiiy dlinh gi:i mfrc dg bien cfia c:ie nhlin tfi xuat ph:it tir ccr che chinh siich cfia Nhit nwiic anh hirfmg den s;y ph:it trién TDDT Nha nuiic Mire di'j 1: Rat khfing bien; 2: Khfing bien; 3: Binh thuérig; 4: Pho bien; 5: Rat bien Nhan t6 xuat ph:it tir cir ché chinh s:ich ciia Nhit nir‹rc 1.1 Doi tupng vay von TDDT Nha nuoc 5 1.2 Bien dong cua Hi suat TDDT Nh:i nuoc dien bien thi truéng " 1.4 Vi(c ban hanh huéng dan thuc hi(n CO thay doi ve chinh s:ich Clin Anh/Ch) hay d:inh gi:i mire dg bien cfia ctic nhlin t6 xuat phiit tir anh hirfmg dén sir ph:it trién TDDT Nha niriic Mwc dg 1: Rat khong bien; 2: Khong bien; 3: Binh thuong; Pho bien; 5: Rat bien Nhin to xuat phtit tir noi tpi NHPTVN Mire diy 2.1 Trinh tu, thu tuc vay von J 2.2 Cong tiic qu:ing b:i chinh siich TDDT Nha nu‹ C 2.3 Ndng luc tai chinh 5 5 5 2.5 Dao tao nang cao chat lupng nguon nhan luC 2.6 Phan cap cho c:ie chi nh:inh (tham d|nh, cho vay, nguon von ) 2.7 Xay d g h( thong chain diem, xép hang kh:ich hang vay von Nh$n to kh:ich quan Mé›i tracing chinh tr| 4.2 Moi tru‹ing kinh té 4.3 Moi truéng ph:ip ly 4.4 Bat kha kh:ing (nhu their tiét) Clin 5: Anh/ChJ hay d:inh gi:i mire dg phiit trién cfia TDDT Nha niriic hi(n Mire dg I: Rat khong ph:it trién; 2: Khfing ph:it trién; 3: Binh thuéng; 4: Ph:it trién; 5: Rat ph:it trién Su ph:it trién TDDT Nha nuoc IT QUA PHAN TICH THONG KE TO PHAN MEM SPSS 18.0 Phu luc 2.1: Phan tich di) tin ca( y Cronbach’s alpha 2.1.1 Nhlin tfi cir ché chi’nh séch ciia Nhé niréc Case Processing Summary N Cases 108 Valid Excluded a 100,0 ,0 108 Total 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach’s Alpha N of Items ,785 Item Statistics Mean Std Deviation N C1 3,61 ,830 108 C2 3,79 ,698 108 C3 3,31 ,816 108 C4 3,24 ,668 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected Item- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Deleted C1 10,34 3,050 ,628 ,713 C2 10,17 3,523 ,591 ,733 C3 10,64 3,074 ,635 ,709 C4 10,71 3,758 ,523 ,765 Scale Statistics Mean 13,95 Variance 5,559 Std Deviation 2,358 N of Items • 2.1.2 Nhan ter thuoc vé NHPTVN Case Processing Summary % Cases 108 Valid 100,0 ,0 Excluded' 108 Total 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach's N of Items Alpha ,873 10 Item Statistics Mean N Std Deviation C5 3,80 ,666 108 C6 3,40 ,831 108 C7 3,27 ,923 108 C8 3,04 ,748 108 C9 2,97 ,703 108 C10 2,78 ,740 108 C11 2,70 ,584 108 C12 1,98 ,626 108 C13 2,68 ,721 108 C14 2,73 ,664 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected Item- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Item c5 25,55 20,082 ,698 ,854 C6 25,94 18,782 ,725 ,850 C7 26,07 17,920 ,758 ,847 C8 26,31 19,616 ,682 ,854 C9 26,37 20,254 ,623 ,859 C10 26,56 19,818 ,657 ,856 C11 26,64 21,317 ,563 ,864 C12 27,36 23,167 ,188 ,887 C13 26,67 20,729 ,525 ,866 C14 26,61 21,156 ,507 ,867 Scale Statistics Mean Variance 29,34 Std Deviation 24,695 N of Items 4,969 10 Case Processing Summary N Cases %« Valid Excluded’ Total 108 100,0 ,0 108 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha N of Items ,645 Item Statistics Mean Std Deviation N C15 C16 3,14 3,83 1,018 ,717 108 C17 3,28 ,994 108 C18 3,04 ,735 108 C19 3,73 ,793 108 C20 2,01 1,098 108 C21 1,72 ,975 108 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected ltem- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Deleted C15 17,61 9,006 ,501 ,557 C16 16,92 10,638 ,418 ,597 C17 17,47 9,167 ,490 ,562 C18 17,71 10,188 ,506 ,573 C19 17,02 10,187 ,453 ,583 C20 18,74 11,390 ,069 ,709 C21 19,03 10,812 ,209 ,655 Scale Statistics Mean - Variance 20,75 13,105 Std Deviation N of Items 3,620 2.1.4 Nhan ter thugc vé doanh nghi‹:p vay Case Processing Summary loai bien N Cases Valid Excluded’ Total % 108 100,0 ,0 108 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Nof lems Alpha ,740 Item Statistics Mean • Std Deviation N C15 3,14 1,018 108 C16 3,83 ,717 108 C17 3,28 ,994 108 C18 3,04 ,735 108 C19 3,73 ,793 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected Item- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Item C15 13,88 5,359 ,570 Deleted ,669 C16 13,19 6,919 ,438 ,718 C17 13,74 5,652 ,517 ,692 C18 13,98 6,542 ,532 ,688 C19 13,29 6,487 ,488 ,701 Scale Statistics Mean 17,02 Variance 9,084 Std Deviation 3,014 N of Items « Case Processing Summary N Cases 108 Valid 100,0 ,0 Excluded' 108 Total 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach’s Alpha N of Items ,601 Item Statistics Mean Std Deviation N C22 1,12 ,327 108 C23 3,44 ,568 108 C24 2,36 ,703 108 C25 1,14 ,347 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected Item- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Deleted C22 6,94 1,482 ,396 ,SEO C23 4,62 ,967 ,549 ,379 C24 5,69 ,719 ,579 ,351 C25 6,92 1,685 ,109 ,677 Scale Statistics Mean Variance 8,06 Std Deviation 1,903 N of Items 1,380 2.1.6 Nhlln tii mci trir‹izig sau loai bien Case Processing Summary N « Cases Valid Excluded' Total % 108 100,0 ,0 108 100,0 • Case Processing Summary % N Cases 108 Valid Excluded' 100,0 ,0 Total 108 100,0 Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha N of Items ,709 Item Statistics Mean Std Deviation N C23 3,44 ,568 108 C24 2,36 ,703 108 Item-Total Statistics Corrected ltem- Cronbach's Scale Mean if Scale Variance Total Alpha if Item Item Deleted if Item Deleted Correlation Deleted C23 2,36 ,495 ,562 C24 3,44 ,323 ,562 Scale Statistics Mean 5,80 Variance 1,267 Std Deviation 1,125 N of Items a , rhy iyc 2.2: Phan tich nhlln to 20 bien quan sét KMO and Bartlett's TeSt 796 Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy Rotated Component Matrix’ ” Bartlett's Test of SphericityComponent Approx Chi-Square df 1012.637 190 751 C1 C2 C3 C4 c5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18 C19 C23 C24 803Sig .823 607 000 779 829 808 710 585 757 599 622 808 836 880 801 603 696 80g EXtraction Method: Principal Com ponent Analysis Rotation Metho d: Varimax with Kaiser NolTrjaliza tion .850 a )é d in it e rations Phu luc 2.3: Phlln tich hot quy tuyén tinh (phuong ph:i p chgn bien Enter) tuong quan • Correlations Phat trien TDDTNN Pearson Phat trien TDDTNN Dieu hanh NHPTVN cua Co che chinh sach cua Nha nuoc Correlation Sig (2-tailed) trinh cua NHPTVN " Tai “ chinh cua doanh nghiep vay von Nang luc cua doanh nghiep vay von Nhan to moi truong NHPTVN Co che chinh sach cua Nha Quy trinh cua NHPTVN nuoc Tai chinh cua doanh Nang luc cua doanh vay von vay von nghiep nghiep Nhan to moi truong 413 479 304 209 205 120 000 000 000 000 000 000 N 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 Pearson Correlation 413 112 086 057 062 033 Sig (2-tailed) 000 000 000 000 000 000 N 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 479 112 108 042 044 026 000 000 000 000 000 000 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 055 033 031 001 000 000 Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Quy Dieu hanh cua Pearson 304 086 108 Correlation Sig.(2-tailed) 000 000 000 N 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 Pearson 209 057 042 055 077 064 Sig (2-tailed) 000 000 000 001 000 014 N 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 Pearson 205 062 044 033 077 022 Sig.(2-tailed) 000 000 000 000 000 N 18 108 108 108 108 108 108 Correlation Correlation 000 Pearson 120 033 026 031 064 022 Correlation Sig (2-tailed) 000 000 000 000 014 000 N 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 ... cong cuoc t :ii thiet va phiit trién dat nuoc So Giao dich II - NHPTVN la mot nhfrng don vi duqc giao nhi(m vu thuc hi(n TDDT Nha nuoc Trong nhiiiig nam qua, hoat dong TDDT Nha nucic SGDII thuc hi(n... TRIEN VIET NAM 2.1 GIS THI(EU VE SP GIAO D]CH II — NGAN HANG PHAT TRIEN VIE) T NAM 2.1.1 Khiii qu:it tinh hinh kinh té - xIi hoi thiinh phfi He Chi Minh Trong giai doan tir nam 200 8-2 011, kinh... dinh va huéiig dan ctia Tong Gi:tin doe 2.1.3 Vai tro cfia Sir Giao d)ch II — Nglin hang Phiit trién Vi(t Nam diii véi ph:it trien kinh te-xIi hgi Thlinh Ho Chi Minh So Giao dich II — NHPTVN