PROBLEM STATEMENT
Climate change remains one of the most pressing challenges for humanity, presenting significant socio-economic and environmental issues globally Its impact is particularly severe in agricultural regions, threatening crop yields, livelihoods, and critical ecosystems The agriculture sector is especially vulnerable, as it relies heavily on weather and natural conditions Compounding this problem is the increasing global food demand driven by population growth, projected to rise from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 9.1 billion by 2050, primarily in developing countries To meet this demand, food production must increase by 70%, a daunting task made even more challenging by the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural output.
According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC,
According to a 2007 report, Vietnam ranks fifth globally in vulnerability to climate change, with the Mekong Delta identified as one of the three most at-risk deltas alongside Egypt's Nile Delta and Bangladesh's Ganges Delta In East and South Asia, climate change is expected to disrupt precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent droughts and higher average temperatures, which pose a significant threat to freshwater resources essential for agricultural production Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa faces a drastic reduction in rainfall, projected to decrease by half.
2020 It is a threat for agriculture sector, and so it effect to food security all over the world Consequently, ensuring food security is increasingly urgent The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) has also estimated that Vietnam will be seriously affected by changing of climate in the future
Vietnam is one of the countries most severely impacted by climate change, facing challenges such as rising sea levels and shifts in rainfall patterns and temperatures According to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, by the end of the 21st century, Vietnam's average temperature is projected to rise by approximately 2.3°C, with total annual rainfall increasing while dry season rainfall decreases Sea levels are expected to rise by about 75 cm compared to averages from 1980-1999 If sea levels rise by 1 meter, around 40% of the Mekong Delta, 11% of the Red River Delta, and 3% of other coastal provinces could be flooded, affecting 10-12% of Vietnam's population and potentially resulting in a 10% loss of GDP With a population exceeding 100 million in 2020, Vietnam must significantly enhance its food production to maintain food security amidst these challenges.
Vietnam's unique climate, diverse topography, and extensive 3,260 km coastline render it particularly susceptible to climate variability and natural disasters Covering an area of 1,000,000 km², Vietnam has a land area of 329,241 km², with 29% dedicated to agricultural production (GSO, 2010) As the world's second-largest rice exporter, Vietnam plays a crucial role in global food supply; however, approximately 1 million people, primarily from ethnic minorities, still face food insecurity This situation highlights the pressing issue of food security in Vietnam, which is further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change on both the nation and the global community.
Climate change has significantly reduced agricultural land in Vietnam, particularly in low coastal areas like the Red Delta and the Mekong Delta, due to rising sea levels Additionally, increasing temperatures and shifting weather patterns have exacerbated the spread of diseases and natural disasters, threatening both agricultural productivity and national food security In response, the Vietnamese government and various institutions have implemented numerous programs and research initiatives aimed at addressing climate change and ensuring food security This paper utilizes simulation approaches to examine the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam, drawing on existing climate change scenarios and previous research findings.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES
This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on food security, utilizing MORNE’s climate change scenarios and food security projects The research focuses on four specific objectives to comprehensively analyze this critical issue.
(1) To understand the relationship between climate change and food security;
(2) To indicate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010;
(3) To explore and estimate the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, focusing on food supply side;
(4) To draw policy recommendations for food security in Vietnam.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
To obtain the above objectives, this paper will attempt to answer the following questions:
(1) How is the relationship between climate change and food security?
(2) How is the impact of climate change (such as rainfall changes, temperature increases, etc.) on rice production in Mekong Delta region?
(3) How is the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030? Among of predicted scenarios, which scenarios are suitable for Vietnam in reality?
(4) What are policy implications to food security in the future?
RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS
This study forecasts the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, utilizing simulations across various scenarios It examines food demand and supply in alignment with government objectives outlined in legal documents The findings aim to equip policymakers with valuable insights for evaluating the feasibility of food security goals amidst climate change, enabling them to select effective policies for adaptation and ensuring food security in the future.
ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY
This paper explores the significant impact of climate change on food security, structured into six key sections It begins with an overview in Chapter 1, followed by a literature review in Chapter 2 Chapter 3 examines the current food demand and supply situation alongside the effects of climate change in Vietnam Chapter 4 details the methodology and data utilized in the study In Chapter 5, the data is analyzed, and the results are discussed Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper with recommendations and highlights the limitations of the research.
Chapter 1 outlines the problem statement that serves as the foundation for this thesis, focusing on the impact of climate change on food security It also details the objectives and contributions of the study, setting the stage for the subsequent analysis.
The article explores essential concepts such as greenhouse gases, emissions, climate change, and food security, supported by theoretical literature and empirical studies linking climate change to agricultural production It reviews a conceptual framework that connects climate change and food security, followed by an analysis of the current state of food demand, supply, and climate change, with a focus on paddy production in Vietnam from 1995 to 2010 The study evaluates domestic rice consumption and export volumes while summarizing climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise based on MORNE data Methodology and data are presented in Chapter 4, utilizing an econometric model and the Cobb-Douglas functional form to analyze secondary data from the Mekong Delta (2001-2010) Chapter 5 discusses the impact of climate change on food security up to 2030 under various scenarios, while Chapter 6 concludes with key findings, recommendations, and research limitations.
BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION
Greenhouse gases, including water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3), play a crucial role in absorbing long-wave radiation (infrared) reflected from the Earth's surface This process traps heat and contributes to the greenhouse effect, which is essential for maintaining the planet's temperature.
Emissions are the release of GHGs and (or) their precursors and aerosols into the atmosphere which over a specified area and a period of time (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
Climate change refers to long-term alterations in climate patterns, typically lasting decades or more, and can result from both natural processes and human activities These changes are often linked to the modification of atmospheric composition and land use practices According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate variability is a natural aspect of the climate system, but human influence has significantly accelerated these changes.
Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO, 2008), greenhouse gases to the atmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in
Since the early investigations in 1824 and the quantitative research by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, various factors have been identified that influence greenhouse gas emissions, including economic growth, population dynamics, consumption patterns, energy sources, technology transfer, and land use (IPCC, 2007) Among these, water vapor is responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, while carbon dioxide (CO2) contributes about 9-26%, methane (CH4) accounts for 4-9%, and ozone (O3) makes up 3-7% Additionally, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are significant contributors Wigley and Jones (1981) emphasized that the impact of CO2 on climate is evident, with atmospheric CO2 levels expected to rise, marking it as a critical factor in climate change.
Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System
Increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases traps more heat in the atmosphere
Higher global mean and maximum surface air temperatures
Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures
Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams
Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers
Changes in average weather conditions
Higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration
Changes in degree of humidity and atmospheric pressure
Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall
Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts
Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events
Species shifts uphill and towards polar regions, resulting in changed species composition of nature habitats
Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation
Changes in star/end of growing season
Displacement of agro- ecological zones
Changes in pattern of sedimentation after flooding
Changes in shorelines of coasts and lakes
The climate change scenario represents a scientific projection regarding future developments, emphasizing the interconnectedness of socio-economic growth, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and rising sea levels, as outlined by the IPCC in 2007.
The A1 Family scenario is characterized by rapid economic growth, a global population peaking in 2050 before declining, and the swift introduction of new technologies that enhance efficiency This scenario also highlights the convergence of income levels and lifestyles across regions, alongside strong cultural exchanges and social interactions.
The A1 scenario, as outlined by the IPCC in 2007, categorizes future technological developments into three distinct groups: A1F1, characterized by high fossil fuel emissions; A1B, which represents a balanced medium emission scenario across various energy sources; and A1T, focused on low emissions through the use of non-fossil energy sources.
The A2 Family scenario is characterized by a diverse global landscape, emphasizing self-reliance and the preservation of national identities As the world faces a continuously growing population in the 21st century, it also experiences regionally-focused economic development and significant technological advancements However, this scenario predicts slow per capita economic growth, aligning with high emission trends similar to the A1F1 scenario, as outlined by the IPCC.
The B1 Family scenario envisions a world characterized by rapid economic growth akin to the A1 scenario, transitioning towards a service and information-based economy It anticipates that the global population will peak in 2050 before entering a decline, alongside a reduction in material intensity This scenario promotes the adoption of clean and resource-efficient technologies while emphasizing the importance of global solutions for achieving economic, social, and environmental sustainability, aligning with a low emission trajectory similar to A1T.
The B2 Family scenario is characterized by a steadily increasing population, albeit at a slower pace than the A2 scenario It prioritizes local solutions for achieving economic, social, and environmental sustainability, focusing on intermediate levels of economic development Additionally, this scenario features a more gradual and diverse technological change compared to the B1 and A1 families, aligning with a medium emission trajectory similar to A1B (IPCC, 2007).
Sea level rise refers to the increase in ocean water levels globally, excluding factors like tides and storm surges It is important to note that the rate of sea level rise can vary by location due to differences in ocean temperature and other influencing factors.
Food security refers to the condition in which every individual has reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food at all times, essential for normal growth, development, and maintaining an active, healthy lifestyle.
Ensuring a consistent availability of essential food supplies is crucial for supporting the continuous growth of food consumption while also mitigating the impacts of production and price fluctuations.
“Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need” (FAO, 1983)
“Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life” (World Bank,
Food security is defined as the condition where individuals, households, and communities, at every level from local to global, have consistent physical and economic access to enough safe and nutritious food This access enables people to meet their dietary needs and preferences, ensuring an active and healthy lifestyle at all times.
Food security refers to the condition where every individual has consistent physical, social, and economic access to enough safe and nutritious food that satisfies their dietary requirements and preferences, ensuring an active and healthy lifestyle.
Scenario is a possible description of how the future may develop which based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
Simulation is a form of predictions given a set of prediction schemes based on different assumptions about future scenarios (IPCC Glossary, 1995)
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
2.2.1.1 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security
The relationship between climate change and food security is well-documented, primarily focusing on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity and, consequently, food supply The rise in Earth's average temperature, attributed to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, has significantly altered global climate patterns Over the past century, the Earth's surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.8°C, with a notable rise of 0.6°C during the 20th century alone Projections indicate that temperatures could rise between 1.8°C and 4.0°C in the 21st century (IPCC, 2007) Scientists largely agree that human activities are the main contributors to the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, which drive these climate changes (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007).
In the case of Vietnam, agriculture accounts for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions Actually, rice cultivation and livestock account for about 43% (MORNE,
Climate change significantly influences agricultural production, affecting both the quality and quantity of crop yields over time Agricultural practices, including the use of fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides, and irrigation methods, will also be impacted Additionally, environmental changes may result in increased soil drainage frequency, soil erosion, and a decline in crop diversity These factors contribute to alterations in rural landscapes due to the loss or gain of cultivated lands.
Greenhouse gases significantly contribute to global warming and climate change, as highlighted by the FAO and NRCB (2008) They identified five key aspects of climate change: the CO2 fertilization effect, rising global mean temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and greater weather variability These changes impact food system assets and activities, ultimately affecting the four components of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization, and system stability (FAO, 2008).
Indeed, the climate change has become the global environment issue This problem is more dangerous deal with developing countries According to World Bank (WB,
Climate change is projected to disproportionately affect developing countries, leading to altered rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, and increased sea levels These changes pose significant risks to agriculture, food security, and water supplies, impacting human life daily Historically, many individuals have suffered from hunger, a problem that is particularly severe for impoverished populations As climate change continues to threaten agricultural production, the risk of hunger will persist in the future Consequently, a substantial body of research has concentrated on understanding the implications of climate change for agriculture and food security.
Global climate change is intensifying pressure on agricultural systems, leading to declining yields even as food demand rises rapidly, which threatens world food supply and security (Parry & Swaminathan, 1992) Additionally, Downing (1992) provided evidence of the vulnerability to hunger due to global changes, highlighting the food security index in developing countries and the associated resource pressures and climate change risks Furthermore, Chen (1990) established connections between global agriculture, environmental factors, and food security, emphasizing their interrelatedness.
He highlighted these linkages in the past, present and future This was presented in the article “Global Agriculture, Environment and Hunger” In particular, Sinha et al
(1988) argued the food supply in smaller countries will be more affected by climate change than the larger countries
Kwon and Kim (2008) explored the connection between climate change and rice yield using non-parametric and semi-parametric models, revealing a positive correlation with temperature and a negative one with rainfall They identified a non-linear relationship between rice yield and weather variables but only analyzed average yield changes without considering yield variability In contrast, McCarl and Schimmelpfennig (2004), along with Chang and Chen (2005) and Devadoss and Isik (2006), emphasized the impact of weather on both average crop yield and its variability Their findings indicated that hotter and drier conditions lead to lower average crop yields and increased variability, highlighting the complex interplay between crop characteristics and environmental factors.
Climate change poses a significant threat to Vietnam, particularly in low-lying regions like the Mekong Delta and Red Delta, which are highly vulnerable to flooding, salinity, and adverse weather conditions The primary drivers of climate change include increased greenhouse gas emissions from physical activities and the overexploitation of forest and marine resources (IMHEN, 2011) The Mekong Delta, known as Vietnam's largest rice granary and aquaculture hub, accounts for approximately 50% of the country's rice production and 52% of aquatic products (GSO, 2010) Research by Bingxin Yu and colleagues (2010) indicates that climate change could lead to a reduction of 2.7 million tons in annual rice production by 2050, with crop yields in the Mekong Delta expected to decline by 4.3% to 8.3% across various agro-ecological zones.
The interplay between biogeophysical and human environments significantly influences the entire food system, encompassing production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption Climate change, which can arise from both natural variability and human activities, plays a crucial role in this dynamic.
2007) According to FAO, food systems involve food availability, food access and food utilization And so, the resulting in food systems ensure for food security
Possible Changes in Food Consumption Patterns
Shift away from grain fed livestock products
Shift in proportion of locally produced foods in the diet
Increase in consumption of new food items
Reduction in consumption of wild foods
Reduction in quantities and/or variety of food consumed
Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security
Increase in availability of atmospheric carbon dioxide for plant growth
INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES
Increase in maximum temperature on hot days
Increase in minimum temperature on cold days
Increase in annual occurrence of hot days
Increase in frequency, duration & intensity of heat waves
Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts
Changes in timing, location & amounts of rain and snowfall
INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Increase in annual occurrence of high winds, heavy rains, storms surges & flash floods associated with tropical storms and tornados
Greater instability in seasonal weather patterns
Change in start and end of growing seasons
Adaptive Responses of Foods Systems
Change in Food System Assets
Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure
Possibility of Migration and Conflict
Change in Food System Activities
Storing and processing of food
Change in Components of Food Security
Possible Changes in Human Health
Change in caloric sufficiency of diets
Change in nutritional value of diets
Increased in cadence of water-borne diseases in flood- prone areas
Change in disease vectors and habitats for existing diseases
Cobb-Douglas functional form was introduced with the postulates in Just and Pope
In 1978 and 1979, researchers began approximating the average yield equation, which was later refined by Tveterås in 2000 Kim and Pang (2009) utilized this functional form to assess the impact of climate change on rice yield and production risk The average yield functions can be expressed as: y = β0 + βtT + ∏xjβj.
The Cobb-Douglas model incorporates inputs such as weather variables, represented by xj, and includes coefficients, β, that need to be estimated Additionally, the time trend variable, T, reflects the influence of technological advancements over the sample period These advancements encompass enhanced crop planting techniques, the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and the introduction of new rice varieties.
Various studies have employed simulation approaches to analyze the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security Matthews et al (1997) focused on rice production in Asia, while Diakosavvas and Green (1998) examined food consumption variations in India Quinn (2002) developed a simulation model linking food production, population consumption needs, and sustainable development Falcon et al (2004) explored the connection between climate change and food supply in Indonesia to enhance food security More recently, Gerald et al (2010) investigated global food security and climate change projections up to 2050, considering both developed and developing nations Additionally, Pedercini et al (2012) assessed the potential impacts of climate change on food security specifically in Mali.
2.2.1.4 Climate Change Scenarios: MORNE, IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER
MORNE: Climate change scenarios are developed by Ministry of Natural
Vietnam's resources and environment are significantly impacted by greenhouse gas emissions, leading to various climate change scenarios These scenarios, which focus on temperature and precipitation changes, are developed for seven distinct geographic zones in Vietnam: North West, North East, North Delta, North Central, South Central, Central Highlands, and South The baseline for these assessments is set between 1980 and 1999 (MORNE, 2009).
IPSL-CM4: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon
In Laplace, France, researchers integrate four key components of the Earth system: LMDZ-4 for atmospheric dynamics and physics, OPA for ocean dynamics, LIM for sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, and ORCHIDEE for land surface processes They analyze various anomalies, including specific humidity, precipitation flux, sea level air pressure, surface down-welling shortwave flux, air temperature, and both eastward and northward wind (IPCC, AR4, 2007)
GISS-ER: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon
The study analyzes key climatic variables, including specific humidity, precipitation flux, sea level air pressure, surface down-welling shortwave flux, air temperature, and wind patterns (eastward and northward) as outlined in the IPCC AR4 report (2007).
So far, climate change and food security are hot topics Therefore, these issues attracted many researchers Among of them, some authors such as Matthews et al
Numerous studies conducted by researchers such as Aggarwal and Mall (2002), Chen et al (2005), and Kim et al (2009) have examined the global impact of climate change on food production, with significant findings reported in various countries, including Vietnam Local researchers like Hoang et al (2008) and Bingxin Yu et al (2010) have also contributed to this body of work, employing diverse methodologies to reach similar conclusions regarding the detrimental effects of climate change on agricultural outputs The following table provides a summary of empirical studies relevant to this topic.
Table 2.1 Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security
Study Data set Methodology Findings
- Panel data: Asia - Rice yield
Scenarios predicted for a doubled-CO2
- An increase in CO2 level was found to increase yields increases in temperature reduced yields
- Rice production in the Asian region may decline by −3.8% under the climate of the next century
- Experiments time- series data: India
Crop simulation models- Ceres-Rice and ORYZA1N
- Rice yields increased between 1.0 and
16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate change depending upon the level of management and model used These increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in optimistic scenarios
- Unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods
- Weather variables affect not only average crop yield but also the variability of crop yield
- Average crop yield and yield variability are mixed (some are positive and some are negative)
- There is a non-linear relationship between temperature, precipitation and revenue
- Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue
- The temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation
Hoang, V.Q et - Cross-sectional - Rice production
- The temperature increases in the hot al (2008) data: Vietnam
- Primary data (Vu Quang & Loc Ha district, Ha Tinh province) production
- Temperature season and decreases in the winter
- Higher rainfall in rainy season, lower rainfall in dry season
- More and more storms coming to the south and sea level is about 10 cm higher than before
- Adjustment of crops system & cultivation schedule to ensure harvesting before flood season
- Cobb-Douglas (CD) functional form
- Rice yield is positively related to temperature & negatively associated with precipitation
- The responsiveness is estimated as +0.8
- Rice yield variability reveals may increase by up to 10%~20%
- Per rural capita disposable income
- CC will affect the food security significantly but food price had no influence on food security in the current year in China
- Predict data: Sub- Saharan Africa
- CCC (Comprehensive Climate Change Scenario)
- CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures & mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period
- Compared to historic climate scenario,
CC will lead to change in yield & area growth, higher food prices, reduce food availability
- Rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change
- Annual rice production may be reduced by 2.7 million tons by 2050 under climate change applied per unit land
- Crop yield reductions under climate change vary widely across agro- ecological zones
- The yield decline is estimated to be 4.3– 8.3 percent by 2050 in the Mekong River Delta
- Experimental time-series data, statistical data: China
- 4 different experimental schemes under B2 scenario relative to baseline
- In 2021-2050, B2 scenario comparing with the baseline (1961-1990): Without
CO2 fertilization effect considered, the yield of irrigated rice decreases by 14.8%
With CO2 fertilization effect considered, the yield of irrigated rice decreases by
3.3% and the yield of rain-fed rice decreases by 4.1% on average
CO2 fertilization has a certain positive effect on rice yield
The Figure 2.1 below shows the conceptual of the linkage between climate change and food security
Emission from carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ozone (O3), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O), etc is the cause of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere This leads to climate change
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter examines the relationship between climate change and food security, highlighting how greenhouse gas emissions are a primary contributor to climate change The resulting ecological vulnerabilities pose significant threats to crop yields and can lead to substantial losses in livelihoods Research consistently shows that climate change adversely affects agricultural production Food security, defined as the condition where all individuals have reliable access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for a healthy life, is increasingly at risk Various models, including the Cobb-Douglas function, Ricardian model, Stochastic production model, and Simulation model, have been utilized to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural yield Overall, these studies indicate that climate change significantly undermines food production.
CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY
According to the FAO (2008), key food items include corn, rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetables, eggs, and milk This paper specifically focuses on rice for two main reasons: it is a staple grain in Vietnamese diets and lifestyles, and Vietnam ranks among the world's largest rice exporters Therefore, this research emphasizes food security by analyzing the balance between rice demand and supply.
Figure 3.1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010
Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011
Between 1995 and 2010, the cultivated area for rice increased from nearly 6.8 million hectares to 7.5 million hectares, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 0.67% The growth was more robust in the initial period (1995-2000), with a decline to an average of 0.19% from 2001 to 2010 Concurrently, the average rice yield saw a steady increase, with an average growth rate of 2.33%, although this rate slowed in recent years Consequently, rice production rose from 25 million tons in 1995 to approximately 40 million tons in 2010, achieving an annual growth rate of 3.04% The first period (1995-2000) experienced a significant growth rate of 4.54%, which decreased to about 2.13% in the following decade.
Figure 3.2 Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011
In the 2000s, Vietnam experienced a significant reduction in cultivated paddy land, losing approximately 153,000 hectares While areas in the Midland and Northern Mountain regions saw an increase in cultivated land, declines were noted in the Red Delta, North Central & Central Coast, and South Central Coast Key factors contributing to this decrease include urbanization and climate change, with government policies playing a crucial role The Vietnamese government has prioritized industrialization, leading to the establishment of numerous industrial parks This shift was formalized in 1997 with a decree regulating industrial and processing zones, followed by the enactment of the Law on Enterprises in 2000 and updates to the Land Law.
Since the enactment of the Investment Law in 2005, Vietnam has experienced significant urbanization, which has directly affected agricultural production Additionally, the construction of numerous golf courses across the country has led to the destruction of many agricultural fields Furthermore, climate change continues to pose a major challenge to Vietnam's agricultural sector, impacting crop yields and food security.
North Central & Central Coast (1,000 ha)
Red Delta (1,000 ha) to face with natural disaster e.g typhoon, flood, drought, landslide and hurricane Climate change also causes to narrow down the cultivated paddy land
Figure 3.3 Distribution of Vietnamese Paddy production (average 1995-2010)
Source: Author’s drawing based on data from GSO, 2011
Between 1995 and 2010, the Mekong Delta represented 51% of Vietnam's cultivated paddy area, making it the largest rice cultivation region in the country In contrast, the Central Highlands had the smallest cultivated area, while the Red River Delta and North Central & Central Coast regions each accounted for 16% Despite the Mekong Delta's extensive area, the Red River Delta achieved the highest paddy yield, reaching nearly 60 quintals per hectare in 2010 Therefore, this research will use the Mekong River Delta as a case study to estimate rice cultivation trends for all of Vietnam.
Table 3.1 Paddy Yield by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010
From 1995 to 2010, paddy yields across various regions of Vietnam demonstrated an overall increase, although growth rates have begun to decline The Red Delta region recorded the highest rice yield at 59.2 quintals per hectare in 2010, while the South Central Coast had the lowest at 44.9 quintals per hectare The Mekong Delta followed closely with a yield of 54.3 quintals per hectare, and the Midland & Northern Mountain region yielded 46.4 quintals per hectare Notably, the Central Highlands experienced a significant increase in productivity, rising by 23 quintals per hectare over the 15-year period Given that the Mekong Delta represents the largest paddy cultivation area in Vietnam, enhancing rice productivity in this region is crucial for the country’s agricultural advancement.
3.1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export
Table 3.2 Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010
Rice production Million tons 25.0 32.5 35.8 40.0 Domestic rice consumed Million tons 11.2 13.6 13.4 14.4
Per capita rice consumed Kg 155 175 163 166
Vietnam's domestic rice consumption has shown a steady increase over the years, rising from 11.2 million tons in 1995 to 14.4 million tons in 2010 Although per-capita rice consumption declined from 175 kg per person in 2000 to 166 kg per person in 2010, this is attributed to rising incomes that allow consumers to diversify their diets with other food options Despite this trend, overall rice consumption continues to grow, influenced by the nation's population and dietary habits As of the 2009 Census, Vietnam's population stood at 85.8 million, making it the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and thirteenth globally The average annual population growth rate from 1999 to 2009 was 1.2%, the lowest in the past 50 years; however, population growth is expected to persist, posing challenges for food security in the future.
Figure 3.4 Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006
From 2000 to 2006, rice consumption for food and reserves made up a significant 59% of total rice consumption in Vietnam, reflecting its status as a staple food in every Vietnamese household This high consumption rate is also driven by the need to maintain food security Additionally, during this period, Vietnam emerged as the world's second-largest rice exporter, contributing to an average of 21% of global rice consumption The remaining rice was utilized for seeds, animal feed, and losses.
Table 3.3 Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010
According to Table 3.3, Vietnam's rice export volume has generally increased over the years, although there were declines in certain years, specifically 2000, 2002, 2006, and 2007 In 2010, rice exports reached nearly 6.9 million tons, solidifying Vietnam's position as the world's second-largest rice exporter, following Thailand This highlights the significance of rice as a key export commodity for the country.
Figure 3.5 The Share Rice Exports of Vietnam in World Total, 1995-2010
Source: Author’s calculation & drawing based on data from FAO, 2011
Vietnam's rice export share has experienced significant fluctuations from 1995 to 2010 Starting at 8.8% in 1995, it doubled in 1996, then saw a decline from 2000 to 2002 However, from 2002 to 2005, the share consistently increased, only to decline again between 2005 and 2007 In recent years, it has shown continuous growth, surpassing 20% of the global total by 2010 Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend over 15 years indicates a nearly threefold increase in Vietnam's rice export share, underscoring the country's vital role in global rice markets and its contribution to food security worldwide.
CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Vietnam is increasingly affected by climate change, with rising temperatures leading to significant sea level rise and reduced rainfall, particularly in the Central region and Central Highlands due to the El Niño phenomenon This results in prolonged droughts, especially in South Central and West Highlands areas According to MORNE, Vietnam's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions total approximately 120.8 million tons annually, primarily consisting of CO2, CH4, NO2, and NO gases The energy, industry, and transportation sectors contribute significantly to these emissions, with transportation responsible for 85% of CO emissions and industry accounting for 95% of NO2 emissions.
MORNE has analyzed changes of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data as follows:
Over the past 50 years (1958-2007), the annual average temperature has risen by approximately 0.5 to 0.7 °C, with Northern climate zones experiencing a more rapid increase than Southern zones Notably, winter temperatures have seen a greater rise compared to summer temperatures The average annual temperature from 1961 to 2000 was significantly higher than that of the previous three decades (1931-1960) Specifically, in the period from 1991 to 2000, Ho Chi Minh City recorded annual temperatures that were 0.6 °C above the average from 1931-1940, while Da Nang and Ha Noi experienced increases of 0.4 °C and 0.8 °C, respectively By 2007, the annual average temperatures in these regions were elevated by 0.8 to 1.3 °C compared to the 1931-1940 average, and also showed an increase of 0.4 to 0.5 °C over the 1991-2000 averages (MORNE, 2008).
Over the past nine decades (1911-2000), annual average rainfall has shown inconsistent changes across different regions, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines Notably, Southern climate zones have witnessed an increase in rainfall, whereas Northern areas have experienced a decrease From 1958 to 2007, the overall rainfall in the country decreased by approximately 2% Additionally, there has been a shift in precipitation patterns, characterized by increased rainfall during the rainy season and decreased rainfall in the dry season (MORNE, 2008).
Sea level rise along the coasts of Vietnam has been uneven, with data from tidal gauges indicating a rise of approximately 1.7-2.4 mm per year during the twentieth century, escalating to about 3 mm per year between 1993 and 2008 This trend suggests that the risk of sea level rise will accelerate in the future For instance, at Hon Dau, sea levels have increased by around 20 cm over the past 50 years, while Vung Tau experienced an average rise of 9.5 cm from 1979 to 2006, with the highest recorded increase nearing 13 cm (MORNE, 2008).
In recent years, Vietnam has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of typhoons, leading to significant damage to properties and loss of life across various regions The trend indicates that typhoons are moving southward, with the season extending later into the year and the emergence of unusual storm patterns (MORNE, 2003) The northern and central coastal provinces are the most severely impacted, while the southern region, though less frequently hit, has faced severe damage in recent years Approximately 62% of the population and 44% of the land are regularly affected by typhoons Additionally, these storms often bring storm surges, with historical data showing that over the past 30 years, half of the typhoons generated surges exceeding 1 meter, and 11% surpassed 2.5 meters, resulting in the destruction of sea dykes and flooding in low-lying coastal areas (Viet Nam Country Report, 1999).
In the past two decades, Vietnam has experienced a significant decrease in the number of cold fronts, with only 15 to 16 cold air waves recorded in 1994 and 2007, accounting for 56% of the average cold atmosphere However, recent years have seen an increase in anomalous weather events, indicating a shift in climatic patterns (MORNE, 2008).
In Hanoi, the average number of drizzle days has significantly decreased since the last decade of 1981-1990, continuing to decline over the past ten years Recent data indicates that the average has fallen to approximately 15 drizzle days per year, representing a reduction by half compared to earlier periods (MORNE, 2003).
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter examines the interplay between food demand, supply, and climate change in Vietnam, focusing on paddy production, a staple food From 1995 to 2010, the cultivated paddy area decreased, yet rice yields increased, with the Mekong Delta remaining the largest cultivation region, accounting for over half of the total area On the demand side, domestic rice consumption rose due to population growth, although per capita consumption declined as consumers diversified their diets The chapter also highlights the impacts of climate change, noting rising temperatures, increased rainfall, and higher sea levels, alongside more frequent and intense typhoons While the number of cold fronts affecting Vietnam has decreased, anomalous weather events have become more common, and the frequency of drizzle days has diminished since the late 20th century.
METHODOLOGY
The methodology of this study contains two parts separately, which are econometric model for Mekong Delta region in period 2001-2010 and simulation approach for Vietnam up to 2030
This study employs an econometric model utilizing historical data to analyze the influence of climate variables on rice yields in the Mekong Delta region, specifically using the Cobb-Douglas functional form to assess average yield functions Covering 12 provinces and one city from 2001 to 2010, the research focuses on the effects of temperature and precipitation on rice production, as the Mekong Delta is critical, contributing approximately 90% of Vietnam's rice exports, which account for 20% of global rice exports Given its low-lying geography, the region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with projections indicating that a 1-meter rise in sea level could inundate 68% of the land and affect 1.7 million hectares due to salinity The findings demonstrate a significant impact of climate change on rice production, emphasizing the need to quantify the effects of temperature and rainfall on yields during the specified period.
This section utilizes the Cobb-Douglas functional form to analyze the average yield function, as introduced in Chapter 2 with equation (1) The study modifies these forms by excluding the time trend variable.
T to simple model The simple equations are suggested to estimate rice yield as follows: ycx j j x k k
Cobb-Douglass (2) where y is rice yield; xj and xk are inputs including weather variables as temperature and precipitation, respectively
To estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation on rice yield by Cobb- Douglass function (2), we take log it, the function is rewritten by
Ln (y) 1 + j ln( x j ) + k ln( x k ) (3) where denotes lnc = 1 and are the coefficients to be estimated
We utilize the Cobb-Douglas functional form due to its alignment with the principles outlined by Just and Pope (1979), which emphasize an additive interaction between average and variability functions Additionally, this form offers the flexibility needed to effectively approximate the average yield equation While the trans-log specification may seem attractive, it introduces a multiplicative interaction that contradicts the assumptions established by Just and Pope (Tveteras, 2000).
This study employs a simulation approach to forecast Vietnam's food security up to 2030, examining the impacts of climate change based on findings from previous research, including those by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) and Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009) It aligns with the Vietnamese Government's objectives outlined in Resolution No 63/NQ-CP and Decision No 124/2012/QĐ-TTg, which focus on national food security and agricultural production planning By utilizing available data, the research estimates food security under various climate scenarios, conducting thorough analysis and comparison among them Ultimately, the study presents a prospective outlook on Vietnam's food security, emphasizing the balance between food supply and demand leading up to 2030.
Climate change is projected to affect all aspects of food security, including availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability (FAO, 2008) This research specifically focuses on food availability, utilizing rice yield changes under various climate scenarios: IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, and MORNE-2030, as identified by Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) These scenarios are based on the A2 emission pathway from the IPCC and assess the impact of climate change on rice yields through 2030 Additionally, rice planting area data from Resolution No 63/NQ-CP, dated December 23, 2009, is integrated with government objectives and previous research findings to project future rice output On the demand side, the forecasted domestic rice demand in Vietnam up to 2030, as adapted from Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009), is also considered.
We suppose the equations of rice supply and rice demand as follows:
With RSot : rice output supply in year t
RSt : rice cultivated area in year t
RYt : rice yield per rice cultivated area in year t (ton/hectare) where RS t = RP t x N (5)
RPt : Rice planted area in year t
N : Number of crops in year t
The demand for rice encompasses both domestic consumption and export needs As noted by Nguyen, V.H (ICD-MARD, 2009), domestic rice demand is comprised of four key components: seed, animal feed and loss, processing, and food reserves, all of which are projected Using this data, we can formulate an equation to estimate the domestic demand for rice.
RD t = RSe t + RA t + RPo t + RF t (6)
With RDt : rice domestic demand in year t
RSet : rice for seed in year t
RAt : rice for animal and loss in year t
RPot : rice for processing in year t
RFt : rice for food and reserve in year t
To achieve national food security, it is essential to equalize domestic rice demand and supply, represented by the equation RSo t = RD t Any imbalance in this equation poses a threat to food security Therefore, we will analyze and discuss the results using a simulation approach, utilizing the available data in the final section.
SOURCE OF DATA
In the initial analysis of historical data, we gathered rice yield statistics for the Mekong Delta region from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011), covering the years 2001 to 2010 at the province level Additionally, precipitation and temperature data were sourced from the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011), based on local meteorological stations Each station corresponds to its respective province, including Moc Hoa for Long An and My Tho for Tien Giang, among others The precipitation data represents the total annual rainfall for each province, which is crucial for assessing water usage in rice cultivation Meanwhile, the temperature data includes monthly averages converted into yearly averages, providing insights into climatic conditions affecting rice production.
In our analysis, we utilized simulations based on previous research to assess the Average Annual Temperature increase and Average % changes in Annual Precipitation across different Agro-ecological zones in Vietnam, as well as the projected changes in rice yield under climate change scenarios (IPSL-2030, GISS-2030, MORNE-2030) from Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010) Additionally, data on Rice Planted Area was sourced from Resolution No 63/NQ-CP (December 23, 2009) regarding national food security and Decision No 124/2012/QĐ-TTg (February 2, 2012) which outlines the agricultural production master plan up to 2020 with a vision for 2030 Furthermore, projections for Rice Domestic Demand in Vietnam by 2030 were derived from research conducted by Nguyen (ICD-MARD, 2009).
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter outlines the methodology and data utilized in the econometric model, which was estimated using secondary data It is divided into two distinct sections, with the first focusing on the sample size from the Mekong Delta region during the period of 2001.
In 2010, data on average yield was analyzed using the Cobb-Douglas functional form, sourced from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) and the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN, 2011) The study also included simulations under three climate change scenarios: GISS, IPSL, and MORNE Data for these simulations was derived from previous research and relevant legal documents from the Vietnamese Government.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN
Table 5.1 Descriptive Statistics of Data
Rice yield (quintal/ha) Temperature ( 0 C) Precipitation(mm)
Source: Author’s calculation based on data from IMHEN and MARD
Over a decade, from 2001 to 2010, data from 12 provinces and 1 city in the Mekong Delta region was analyzed, with the summary statistics presented in Table 5.1 The variables used in this analysis are defined and explained in detail.
In the Mekong Delta, the average rice yield per hectare is 47.6 quintals, with a median yield of 47.9 quintals per hectare The highest recorded yield reaches 62.6 quintals, while the lowest stands at 30.7 quintals across 127 observations The dispersion in this data set is measured at 6.829 quintals.
The Mekong Delta experiences an average temperature of 27.2 degrees Celsius, with a median value also at 27.2 degrees The temperature fluctuates between a maximum of 28 degrees Celsius and a minimum of 26.6 degrees Celsius, based on 127 observations The dispersion in this temperature data is measured at 0.352.
The Mekong Delta experiences an average annual precipitation of 1,733 millimeters, with a median value of 1,670 millimeters The region's highest recorded rainfall reaches 2,872 millimeters, while the lowest is 705 millimeters, based on 127 observations The dispersion in precipitation data is 421 millimeters, highlighting the variability in rainfall across the area.
Before running the model, we conduct a unit root test to assess the stationarity of pooled data using the ADF Test Statistics This method, which evaluates the mean of individual unit root statistics, is detailed in Table 5.2 The results indicate that all variables in the model are stationary, allowing us to apply the OLS method for estimation.
Table 5.2 Panel Unit Test Results
Source: Author’ calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR
The estimation results for functional form are presented in Table 5.3 as the following:
Source: Author’ calculation based on data from IMHEN and MAR
The estimation results are showed in the Table 5.3 above We can explain the meaning of values as follows:
The Cobb-Douglas model indicates a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation and average rice yield from 2001 to 2010 This suggests that as temperature and precipitation levels rise, the average rice yield per sown area declines.
In the Cobb-Douglas model, a 1% increase in temperature leads to an average decrease of 0.45% in rice yield, while a 1% increase in precipitation results in a 0.15% decline in yield, assuming all other factors remain constant The Adjusted R² value of 0.254711 indicates that approximately 25% of the variation in rice yield in the Mekong Delta is attributed to changes in temperature and precipitation.
For many years, rice production in Vietnam, particularly in the Mekong Delta, has faced challenges due to temperature fluctuations and total rainfall The majority of rice fields in this region rely heavily on natural conditions, making them vulnerable to climate change, which directly affects rice yields Although the Mekong Delta has become the second highest yielding region after the Red Delta, the overall rice yield from 2001 to 2010 has increased, largely due to advancements in technology such as fertilizers, pesticides, and new rice varieties However, the impact of these technological improvements is not fully accounted for due to a lack of available data This analysis primarily focuses on climate change variables, including temperature and precipitation Historically, rice yields have been estimated to decline due to factors like drought, flooding, landslides, and rising sea levels, which are projected to worsen in the future, posing significant threats to agricultural production Increasing temperatures are a primary contributor to the reduction in paddy yields.
5.2.CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS
Table 5.4 Average Annual Temperature increase in degrees by Agro-ecological zones
Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030
Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)
In 2030, three climate change scenarios indicate an increase in average annual temperatures across various agro-ecological regions, as detailed in Table 5.4 The authors employed the A2 emission scenario from the IPCC scenario family for their analysis Notably, the IPSL and GISS scenarios predict more significant temperature rises compared to the MORNE scenario Additionally, both the IPSL and MORNE scenarios project that temperature increases in Northern agro-ecological regions will be greater than those in Southern regions.
In Vietnam, temperature increases vary across different regions under various climate scenarios In the IPSL scenario, the Red River Delta experiences the highest increase at 1.19°C, while the Southeast sees the lowest rise at 0.81°C Conversely, the GISS scenario indicates that the South Central Coast has the highest temperature increase of 0.99°C, with the Southeast and Mekong River Delta recording the lowest at 0.78°C Under the MORNE scenario, the Central Highlands shows the least increase at 0.5°C, whereas the North Central Coast experiences the highest rise at 0.85°C.
Table 5.5.Average % changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological zones
Agro-ecological Zones IPSL-2030 GISS-2030 MORNE-2030
Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)
Table 5.5 illustrates the projected average percentage changes in annual precipitation by agro-ecological zones for 2030 under three climate change scenarios The data indicates that precipitation is expected to rise in the GISS and MORNE scenarios, while a decline is anticipated in the IPSL scenario Notably, the GISS scenario predicts a more significant increase in rainfall compared to the MORNE scenario Overall, annual precipitation across these regions may vary, either increasing or decreasing, depending on the specific climate change scenario applied.
Table 5.6.Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios
Vietnam RRD NE NW NCC SCC CHL SE MRD Climate change scenarios
Source: Bingxin Yu et al (IFPRI, 2010)
Climate change significantly affects rice yields across Vietnam's agro-ecological zones, with three scenarios analyzed: IPLS, GISS, and MORNE The findings indicate that rice yields are projected to decline more sharply under the IPLS and GISS scenarios compared to the MORNE scenario Notably, the Red River Delta is identified as one of the regions experiencing the most substantial decrease in rice production due to climate change impacts.
By 2030, rice yields are projected to decline significantly, with the IPSL scenario showing an 18.4% decrease, the highest among three scenarios The South Central Coast faces the steepest drop at 26.7%, while the Central Highlands sees a slight increase of 0.6% In the GISS scenario, the Red River Delta experiences a 21.4% yield reduction, contrasted by a 1.6% increase in the Central Highlands The MORNE scenario indicates a 5% decrease in the South East and a minimal 2% decrease in the Red River Delta These declines are attributed to climate change impacts and a reduction in rice cultivation areas due to urbanization and rising sea levels, posing a serious threat to food safety and agricultural production in Vietnam's future.
Table 5.7 Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to
Current Rice Planted Area (1,000 ha) 4,100
Estimated Land Loss by Climate Change (1,000 ha) -5.7 -19.9
Target Rice Planted Area of Government (1,000 ha) 3,812 3,812
Average Number of Crops/year 2.0 2.0
Estimated Rice Cultivated Area (1,000 ha) 7,624 7,624
Target Output of Government (1,000 tons) 42,000 44,000
Estimated Average Rice Yield (quintal/ha) 55 57.7
Source: Author’s calculation based on MORNE’ data
According to MORNE estimates, climate change is projected to result in a loss of 5,700 hectares of land by 2020, escalating to 19,900 hectares by 2030 To assess the rice planting area until 2030, data from the Vietnamese Government's Decision No.124/2012/QĐ-TTg is utilized, which outlines a master plan for agricultural development This plan aims to protect 3.812 million hectares of stable rice land by 2020, with a focus on achieving a rice production target of 41-43 million tons by 2020 and 44 million tons by 2030 The average yield is expected to be around two crops per year, leading to an estimated rice cultivation area of approximately 7.624 million hectares from 2020 onward.
In 2020, the average rice yield was 55 quintals per hectare, projected to rise to 57.7 quintals per hectare by 2030, yet this remains a challenge given the peak yield of only 53.22 quintals per hectare recorded in 2010 and the current yield of approximately 1.8 crops per year Achieving these objectives requires the implementation of advanced intensive production measures, which are further complicated by the impacts of climate change on both paddy land and overall productivity, particularly in the Mekong Delta Research from IMHEN indicates that rice yields in this region could decline by 10-20% by 2020, with the Summer-Autumn crop facing the most significant reductions—projected decreases of 3.8% in 2020, 5.06% by 2050, and 9.87% by 2100 By the year 2100, a temperature increase of 2°C could lead to a 14.3% decrease in Winter-Spring rainfall and a 13% increase in Autumn-Winter rainfall, resulting in a yield reduction of over 5% across all three cropping seasons.
CHAPTER REMARKS
This chapter explores Vietnam's food security scenarios through 2030, considering three climate change models: GISS, IPSL, and MORNE The findings indicate that under the GISS and MORNE scenarios, Vietnam can achieve sufficient rice production to ensure national food security and maintain export surpluses However, the IPSL scenario predicts a shortfall in rice output These results contrast with earlier studies, such as CAP-IPSARD (2011), which concluded that Vietnam would have adequate rice supplies to secure food security in the future.
2030 However, our study indicates Vietnam has to face with the shortages of food under the impact of climate change.