FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY CAMPUS -*** - MID-TERM ASSIGNMENT International Economics Lecturer: TRẦN NGUYÊN CHẤT VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: FUNDAMENTALS, FTAs AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY Group 7: Trương Phương Thảo Võ Thị Thanh Thảo Nguyễn Bùi Linh Thi Nguyễn Đặng Minh Thi Trần Minh Thi List of group 7: No Student Name Student ID Trương Phương Thảo 1801015817 Võ Thị Thanh Thảo 1801015819 Nguyễn Bùi Linh Thi 1801015825 Nguyễn Đặng Minh Thi 1801015826 Trần Minh Thi 1801015828 Note Table of content Introduction Chapter 1: Overview of Fundamentals of Economic Integration 1.1 Definition 1.2 Levels of Economic Integration 6 Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Vietnam’s economic integration 2.1 Purposes in economic integration 2.2 Strategic orientations 2.3 Achievements Vietnam has obtained 2.3.1 Foreign affair 2.3.2 Economy 2.3.3 Institutional reforms 2.3.4 Limitations 8 10 12 12 13 15 16 Chapter 3: Free Trade Agreements 3.1 Overview of FTAs 3.1.1 Definition 3.1.2 FTAs’ main contents 3.2 Vietnam’s wide-ranging free trade agreement 3.2.1 Vietnam’s principles and directions in negotiating FTAs: 3.2.2 Vietnam’s participation in FTAs: 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Chapter 4: An analysis on CPTPP 24 4.1 Overview 25 4.2 Predicted positive impacts of CPTPP on Vietnam’s economy at the time of its signing 27 4.3 Achievements after a year since CPTPP 28 4.4 Potential impacts of CPTPP on Vietnam in the future 29 4.4.1 Opportunities 29 4.4.2 Challenges 31 4.5 Evaluation and implication from CPTP 32 4.5.1 Evaluation 32 4.5.2 Implications 33 Conclusion 34 Introduction 2020 is the year which highlights many significant milestones of Vietnam in the international integration process Particularly, Vietnam officially becomes the President of ASEAN 2020 and a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council for 2020-2021 With dual roles, we have reinforced our position higher by not only being “a ruler” in leading and contributing to the mutual peace and prosperity of the world but also gaining more momentum to promote the mutual relationships with other countries By that, our international integration in the whole picture will be strengthened more deeply and broadly, which can sustain the security and growth of the economy, society in the long-term Over 30 years, Vietnamese international integration process has achieved both many successes and the limitations side by side Our process focuses on three main parts: economy; politics, defense and security; culture-society, education, science-technology and others, with the core center in economy In recent years, the trend of multi-level economic integration has become more popular and deeper, especially Foreign Trade Agreement (FTA) New situations in the world help found new-generation FTA to comply with the continuous changes of the global economy Simultaneously, Asia-Pacific region plays the leading role of actively promoting and connecting the economies of other regions Given that, new FTAs regarding the region are negotiated successfully, typically as a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans - Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) The participation of Vietnam in these two big FTAs is expected to contribute more huge potential benefits and new difficulties to overcome Thus, this paper is created to define the importance and fundamentals of Vietnam’s economic integration in general and research on FTA in particular, then analyze the opportunities and challenges of CPTPP - the big FTA Vietnam just joined, finally finding some crucial implications Hopefully, the paper can contribute to improve and encourage the development of Vietnam’s economic integration in the new context The paper has five main parts: The overview of international economic integration is discussed in the next part Part II will identify the fundamentals of economic integration in Vietnam The part III will consider FTAs, its main contents and Vietnam’s participation The careful analysis on the case of CPTPP and some evaluations and implications on it are given in part IV The final part concludes the paper with those implications Chapter 1: Overview of Fundamentals of Economic Integration 1.1 Definition While Economic Integration is defined in various ways, the most fully and clearly understandable definitions that are widely accepted are listed below: - Economic integration is defined as a process of removing restrictions on payments, international trade and factor mobility Economic integration thus leads to the uniting of two or more national economies in a regional trading arrangement - Economic integration is an agreement among countries in a geographic region to cut back and ultimately eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers to the free flow of products or services and factors of production among each other; any type of arrangement in which countries conform to coordinate their trade, fiscal, and/or monetary policies are referred to as economic integration Therefore, the main objective of Economic Integration is to maximize welfare of every participant by increasing GDP through stimulating trading between countrymembers of economic unions 1.2 Levels of Economic Integration Economic Integration is classified in five levels, each present in the global landscape - Free-trade area: This is the least restrictive and loosest level of integrating, in which members agree to remove all tariff and nontariff barriers among themselves, but are free to independently determine trade policies with nonmember nations The main goal of free trade agreements is to develop comparative advantages and economies of scale - Custom union: This type of integration involves the free-trade zone’s characteristics In addition, however, each member nation imposes same trade restrictions against nonparticipants Custom unions are specifically helpful to level the competitive playground and address the problem of re-exports by using preferential tariffs in one country to enter another country - Common market: This level of economic integration is emphasized by three characteristics: (1) the free movement of goods and services among member nations, (2) the initiation of common external trade restrictions against nonmembers, and (3) the free movement of factors of production across national boundaries within one economic bloc - Economic union (single market): All tariffs are eliminated for trade between member countries in order to a uniform market There are also free movements of labor, enabling workers in a member country to move and work in another member country Monetary and fiscal policies between member countries are harmonized, which means a level of political integration - Political union: Represents the potentially most advanced form of integration with a common government, in which the sovereignty of a member country is dramatically reduced This level is only found within nation-states, such as federations where there is a central government and regions having a level of autonomy Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Vietnam’s economic integration 2.1 Purposes in economic integration When regional economies agree on integration, trade barriers gradually fall and economic and political coordination significantly increases The process of economic international integration; therefore, creates new opportunities and huge benefits for Vietnam In other words, economic integration has played a key role in enhancing efficiency and promoting economic growth “The purposes of economic integration are related to Vietnam's efforts to ensure trading rights, protect domestic production, especially the SOE sector, and create incentives for export promotion”, according to Vo Tri Thanh (2005) There are two main kinds of targets of economic integration: economic and political ones Economic integration can bring various benefits to Vietnam, especially in terms of enhancing access to different markets and helping to stimulate the production of traditional products which Vietnam has comparative advantage Besides, implementing the commitments of the WTO will also help Vietnam to improve its business environment in conformity with international best practices Vietnam will use its participation in international trade agreements as a tool to ensure and advance national interest and security through increased economic power In the short run, we can increase our share in the internal trade of grouping and terms of trade are getting better And it is possible, thanks to elimination of tariffs, para tariffs and extra tariffs barriers In the longer run, we can observe profitable changes and maximization of profits in our economy as a member country of the integration grouping Thanks to specialization of production and division of work, production and investments with relatively lower effectiveness will soon be eliminated in replacement of the most effective branches Integration processes make it easier for countries, which take part in it, to access outside production factors, especially raw materials, labor sources and technical knowledge Therefore, it enables a series of ready-made goods, increasing a production range at a lower cost Also, the second group of targets - political ones - played an essential role in the integration As for the political targets of economic integration, there are two main targets that a country wants to achieve, which are firstly to “strengthen their political position” and then “auction strength in relations with other countries, especially with highly developed ones” Political cooperation with other countries can help Vietnam to improve international relationships because of stronger economic ties, which provide an incentive to resolve conflicts peacefully and lead to greater stability For developing economies like Vietnam, joining an economic community helps us to reflect their growth as well as their current position both in economic and political aspects “In the opinion of most policy makers, integration is the best chance for reform and innovation” said Doan Quang Huy (2013) Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on January 7, 2016 approved the specific objectives through 2020, vision to 2030 of international economic integration that are “expand markets, take advantage of capital, technology, management knowledge; improve the competitiveness of the economy, businesses and products; foster the development of domestic industries, establish higher positions in the regional and international production and supply chain; actively make contributions to the process of transforming growth model and restructuring the economy; beef up industrialization and modernization, enhance internal strength, reduce dependence from the outside, and narrow development gap with ASEAN-6 countries Regarding the degree of international integration, strive to catch up with ASEAN-6 countries by 2020, ASEAN-4 countries by 2025, and to become one of the top ASEAN countries in such areas that Vietnam has strengths and have a catch-up strategy, including improvement of business environment, by 2030, etc In the short run, successfully realize the socio-economic development targets that have been figured out.” 2.2 Strategic orientations The trade policy of Vietnam and its participation in various trade agreements can be viewed as the result of a deliberate and strategic choice of its domestic forces for national interest, increased prospective future economic wealth and power – and, therefore, more security Firstly, Vietnam has prioritized international trade integration with its most significant trade partners outside the ASEAN region For Vietnam, its own international trade integration is a more important objective than the shared ASEAN interest of establishing a fully functioning, globally integrated AEC Vietnam has known that, in today’s world, ‘international’ goes side by side with ‘national’ or ‘domestic’, but that there is a fundamental difference between ‘international’ and ‘supranational’ Secondly, by the creative application of these two typical theories- trade creation and trade diversion, Vietnam is consciously pursuing a trade creation strategy whereby it actively seeks to participate in preferential free trade agreements with important economic markets outside the ASEAN region (mainly the EU and the USA) that could potentially have an important trade creation effect for the country In this scenario, Vietnam has more opportunity to reduce customs tariffs both within the AEC and with the EU and the USA to attract exporting companies to produce in Vietnam, and from Vietnam export to trade partners outside ASEAN In other words, Vietnam tends to create new trade flows and concentrates on ensuring its own economic security by making use of regional and international trade agreements Thirdly, the rule-binding trade agreements assists a national domestic purpose of locking in domestic reforms Domestic reforms, which are vital for the continued 10 include new members Vietnam's participation in new-generation FTAs like CPTPP has opened up many market access opportunities for the enterprise sector Accordingly, incentives on tariff reduction and market opening of goods and services are still the top concerns of businesses, especially incentives from CPTPP members that Vietnam has not yet had a bilateral FTA with such as Canada, Mexico, and Peru However, a high standard agreement like CPTPP allows Vietnamese enterprises to not only expand exports to large regional markets but also provide opportunities for businesses to participate in value chain production if the conditions of standards and regulations are met 4.2 Predicted positive impacts of CPTPP on Vietnam’s economy at the time of its signing Firstly, the major benefit that Vietnam is entitled to enjoy is export benefits The fact that countries, including major markets’, like Japan and Canada, commitment to reducing their import tax to 0% on our goods, will have a positive impact on boosting Vietnam’s exports turnover Accordingly, Vietnamese enterprises, when exporting goods to the markets of the member countries of the CPTPP, will enjoy preferential tariff reduction Basically, our strong export items such as agricultural, seafood, electrical and electronic products are all eliminated tax when the agreement comes into effect With this level of commitment, according to an official research of the Ministry of Planning and Investment Portal, Vietnam's exports are expected to increase by 4.04% by 2035 Secondly, Vietnam is entitled to enjoy the benefits of participating in regional and global supply chains CPTPP countries, making up for 13.5% of global GDP with a total trade turnover of more than 10,000 billion USD, and also including major markets such as Japan, Canada, and Australia, will open up many opportunities once the new supply chains are established Joining CPTPP will help this trend to grow stronger and stronger, which is an important condition to improve the level of development of the economy, increase labor productivity, cut down on the amount of time for the fabrication and assembly process, and participate more in stages of producing higher value-added items, thus joining the development stage of electronics, high technology, green agricultural 27 products This is a great opportunity to enhance the economy of Vietnam in the next 510 years 4.3 Achievements after a year since CPTPP According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), in 2019, the trade turnover between Vietnam and the CPTPP countries reached 77.4 billion USD, increasing by 3.9% compared to the year of 2018 Also, Vietnam's export turnover to the CPTPP region has reached 39.5 billion USD, increasing by 7.2% compared to the year of 2018 Therefore, Vietnam had a trade surplus of 1.6 billion USD to the CPTPP countries in 2019, which is a good sign Because if we take a look back in 2018, before CPTPP came into force, Vietnam used to have a trade deficit of 0.9 billion USD with these nations The Vietnam - members implementing CPTPP export turnover has experienced a positive growth rate compared to the same period last year, except that of Vietnam - Australia has decreased by 11.4% due to a sharp decline in crude oil exports to this market Export focuses mainly on phones of all kinds and components, devices, seafood, and textile According to data collected by MoIT, some markets with that Vietnam have not signed a bilateral FTA, such as Canada and Mexico, reported strong increases right after the agreement came into effect since Vietnamese enterprises are now taking full advantage of CPTPP to export to these two nations’ markets In 2019, exports to Canada increased by 29.9% and exports to Mexico increased by 27.6%, according to MoIT And just in the first two months of 2020, Vietnam’s exports to Canada have increased by 20.39%, reaching 578 million USD year on year Vietnam’s export value to Mexico with many high export value products have also reached 497.2 million USD In the period from January to March 15, Vietnam has reached a total trade value of 97.85 billion USD, increasing by 4.4% year on year It is reported that Vietnam had a trade surplus of 2.74 billion USD as of the middle of March 2020 However, against the expectation of a significant increase in foreign investments, the year later report shows that Vietnam failed in increasing the attraction of foreign investment from CPTPP countries Specifically, in 2019, Vietnam attracted nearly 5.9 28 billion USD of investment capital from CPTPP countries, down by 38.8% compared to 2018 In which, the newly registered capital was only 4.1 billion USD, decreased by 52% compared to 2018, while the additionally registered capital also decreased by 69%, reaching just over billion USD However, “the quality of foreign investment flows has also improved significantly”, stated Nguyen Anh Duong - Head of Comprehensive Research, Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) Although the amount of investment from CPTPP countries in Vietnam has not increased, investment from nonCPTPP countries in Vietnam to take advantage of opportunities from the CPTPP tends to increase With the standards that the CPTPP market must meet when investing, the quality of investment has been improved and significantly improved In fact, one year has not fully reflected the impact of the CPTPP The greatest benefit of CPTPP to the business community and Vietnam’s economy is to promote the dynamism, creativity, desire to rise of businesses, and the economy changing-reforming process of Vietnamese institutions in accordance with the requirements of global trade and sustainable development orientations 4.4 Potential impacts of CPTPP on Vietnam in the future The last year of implementing the CPTPP was just a beginning for the relationships between Vietnam and other member countries The agreement is expected to show even more enormous potential impacts on Vietnam’s economy 4.4.1 Opportunities Firstly, CPTPP will give Vietnam the opportunity to restructure import and export markets to a more balanced ratio because: “Vietnam is now greatly relying on the South Asia markets like China or Korea and other ASEAN countries This is the key mission for Vietnam to achieve an independent economy.”, stated Tran Tuan Anh - the Ministry of MoIT According to a World Bank study published in March 2018, it is forecasted that by 2030, Vietnam's exports to CPTPP countries will increase from 54 billion USD to 80 billion USD, accounting for 25% of total exports Vietnam also aims to institutional reform 29 Secondly, CPTPP resulting in economic growth will also help Vietnam have more resources to improve the quality of human resources and public health Because the economies of the CPTPP member countries are developed at a higher level than Vietnam and are complementary to Vietnam’s economy, imports from CPTPP countries without having signing bilateral any FTA with them before are largely non-competitive to domestic products Therefore, with a reasonable tax reduction roadmap, combined with the act of improving the social security system, Vietnam can handle the social problems arising from participating in the CPTPP In particular, since the CPTPP includes commitments on environmental protection, the process of opening the market, trade liberalization and investment attraction will be implemented in a more environmentally friendly way, making Vietnam’s economy sustainably develop Thirdly, joining CPTPP not only accelerates Vietnam’s integration with the local region, boost export turnover to large markets but also attracts foreign investment, thus supporting the transfer of technology and innovation activities Vietnam needs technology to enhance its competitive advantages and technology transfer is the most important key for sustainable economic development and promotion of creative innovation Although, in the past time, Vietnam has been involved in numerous free trade agreements, helping the number of cooperation contracts and foreign investment projects in Vietnam increase strongly for many years, at least benefiting some industries (such as information and communication) But the number of new and modern technologies transferred into Vietnam is still modest It is partially true that some technology owners in developed countries are not willing to offer opportunities for some potential competitors but the main reason for the modest technology transferred into Vietnam is that our current regulations on technology transfer are still not optimized Especially, there is a lack of specific regulations for the monitoring mechanism, evaluation, organization of the transfer regarding documents 4.4.2 Challenges Firstly, the commitment to market opening is challenging for Vietnam’s enterprises whose products have weaker competitive advantages because they have no 30 ability to take advantage of CPTPP Enterprises tend to put too much of their focus on its short-term benefits (e.g.: the reduction on tariff or how to export their products to other countries) without acquiring a full understanding of CPTPP’s original rules such as the requirements for exporting products or the roadmap of the tariff reduction In the period between 2018 to 2019, only about 40% of the provinces and cities have import and export activities with the CPTPP countries, according to MoIT A report by VCCI also demonstrates that about 86% of enterprises knew or learned about CPTPP but only 1.86% of whom have studied thoroughly about the agreement, affecting greatly on the utilization rate Secondly, Vietnam may also face issues related to the competitiveness of domestic and exporting products In terms of commodities, some types of agricultural products that some CPTPP countries have strengths such as pork, chicken are Vietnamese goods that have been produced but their competitiveness is still weak Fortunately, due to the US’s withdrawal, the competitiveness pressure was significantly reduced Some industrial products that some CPTPP countries have strengths in can also cause difficulties for our production, such as paper, steel, and cars However, it is certain to believe that the competitiveness pressure will not be considerable because at present and in the future of 10 - 15 years, our products will still mainly target the middle market segment while the products of other CPTPP countries are often aimed at high-end market segments Thirdly, the pressure to change the legal system to comply with the new standards of the CPTPP can also be challenging In order to enforce commitments in the CPTPP, there will be a need to revise and amend a number of laws on trade, customs, intellectual property, labor, trade unions, However, Vietnam is expected to overcome this issue because the most difficult commitments, which require large enforcement resources (e.g.: the field of intellectual property), have been postponed by 11 countries after the US withdrew from the TPP Moreover, many commitments are new but fully compatible with the Party's guidelines and policies as well as the laws of the government (e.g.: the aspect of the Government's procurement, environmental 31 protection, SOEs and SMEs) Therefore, the pressure to change immediately the legal system is not considerable 4.5 Evaluation and implication from CPTP 4.5.1 Evaluation After a year CPTPP coming into effect, positive economic results reflect this FTA is really worth spending endeavors after many fierce negotiations and our implementing process has been well working Bright opportunities from the agreement expected to bring more enormous potential benefits for the whole nation in the long run However, Vietnam also has to overcome the hardship from challenges coming side by side with those opportunities At the same time, we have not yet exploited the full advantages from CPTPP and missed many big chances Challenges mostly derive from: the independence or low concerning level about CPTPP of enterprise, big reliance on raw materials that are exported from China and ASEAN countries, gaps between our development and member states’ in some sectors and fields To deal with them, some crucial recommendations are proposed including: the revision of legal regulations and amend them in order to satisfy the high commitments in CPTPP as well as fill the gaps between the legal system of member states and ours (Ngo Van Vu, 2019); the importance of stronger dissemination of the CPTPP to enterprises in every field and area (Mr Ngo Chung Khanh (Deputy Director General of Multilateral Trade Policy Department); the activeness of enterprises on deep studies of the contents regarding to rules of origins, sanitary and phytosanitary measure (SPS), technical barriers to trade measure (TBT), especially the tax reduction roadmap of CPTPP ; improving competitiveness, the quality and productivity of goods and services also production capability of national economy; grasping the beneficial supply chains in domestic and regional markets; finally in the long run, the need to build and develop popularly the product brand names in the international markets 4.5.2 Implications Through the case of CPTPP, we have many lessons to renovate the ways to implement from the beginning and exploit full advantages of the upcoming FTAs, which 32 are still under negotiations or need legal approval to take effect such as EVFTA and RCEP The practical lessons learned from CPTPP will develop our background to promote and progress into higher levels of other trade agreements: Firstly, after engaging in any FTAs, setting up the long-term objectives that are based on the inner conditions and situation of Vietnam is more important; make it clear that at which level we participate in, what we need to obtain, how to obtain from current resources and how to allocate those resources for harmonious relationships of CPTPP and other FTAs in the overall perspective Secondly, the model, program or campaign in the traditional way of communication and dissemination of FTAs might be modified by the new trends and approaches in accordance with each specific context So that everyone, especially enterprises, will obtain ample and accurate knowledge about the contents of them Possibly, this requires more efforts in designing an appropriate and effective communication plan that fit each objective or key message with each kind of targeted audiences, using right and various platforms The third lesson could be about activeness in adaptability and studies about the FTAs Vietnam has just joined In general, enterprises' knowledge about FTAs is just on the surface, so they can not apply deeply and effectively the articles in their business The more comprehensive understandings, the less fallacy about requirements and false orientations for their business Thanks to that, it is easier for firms to catch up with these requirements by setting up clear strategies and objectives for long-run benefits and patiently achieving one by one; ignoring the short-term and risky benefits, moving towards long lasting relationships with foreign members Finally, from CPTPP and the upcoming FTAs, clearly that the market requirements are becoming stricter, especially about origins and standards of outputs This means it is imperative to build the ample sources for raw materials and develop the supplementing industries for high value of exporting goods; gradually decline the amounts imported from China and other ASEAN countries Hopefully, with this preparation, we could be more flexible in resources, meeting the strict conditions and gradually progressing into 33 higher levels of FTAs Conclusion Over 30 years, international economic integration of Vietnam has been more and more strengthened in both width and depth Appropriate orientations of the Government helps us to complete the beginning purposes and achieve significant successes in foreign affairs, economy, and institutional reforms There are, however, some limitations that we need to overcome mostly about the increasing gap between Vietnam and other countries One of our big successes from the integration is engaging in many new generation FTAs, typically as CPTPP, EVFTA and RCEP Basically Vietnam participated in wide-ranging FTAs, but these new ones will bring us such huge potential benefits that our position can progress into higher levels more quickly and sustainably in the international arena In fact, our deep analysis on CPTPP has indicated that our economic growth is over predicted, and in the future, we can gain more precious opportunities and resources to encourage broader relationships with other countries On the other hand, Vietnam has also to tackle the upcoming challenges of CPTPP which derive from low knowledge about CPTPP of enterprise, big reliance on raw materials that are exported from China and ASEAN countries, gaps between our development and member states’ in some sectors and fields Possibly, these challenges are the waking signals for the needs of setting more long-run objectives, a more effective communication plan or activeness in adapting to new contexts 34 Reference 2011 Outlines Of The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement [PDF] p.Office of the United States Trade Representative Available at: [Accessed 14 November 2011] ASEAN Statistics Division, 2020 ASEAN Key Figures 2018 Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat Carbaugh, R., 2009 International Economics 12th ed Mason, OH: SouthWestern Cengage Learning Chinhphu.vn 2016 Strategies Details [online] Available at: [Accessed January 2016] Cptpp.moit.gov.vn n.d Hiệp Định Đối Tác Toàn Diện Và Tiến Bộ Xuyên Thái Bình Dương [online] Available at: Deprez, S., 2018 The Strategic Vision behind Vietnam's International Trade Integration Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 37(2), pp.3-38 En.nhandan.org.vn 2019 Vietnamese Enterprises Urged To Be More Proactive To Utilise CPTPP [online] Available at: [Accessed 25 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Việt Nam - EU (EVFTA) [online] Available at: 25 Van Vu, N., 2019 Impacts of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on Vietnam Vietnam Social Sciences, (2), pp.14 26 Vietnamnet, 2020 Vietnam gains higher exports to Canada, Mexico partly due to CPTPP [online] Available at: [Accessed 28 March 2020] 40 41 ... government and regions having a level of autonomy Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Vietnam’s economic integration 2.1 Purposes in economic integration When regional economies agree on integration, trade... of economic integration in Vietnam The part III will consider FTAs, its main contents and Vietnam’s participation The careful analysis on the case of CPTPP and some evaluations and implications... of content Introduction Chapter 1: Overview of Fundamentals of Economic Integration 1.1 Definition 1.2 Levels of Economic Integration 6 Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Vietnam’s economic integration